Denny Hamlin's on a heater as the AdventHealth 400 odds roll out for this weekend's event. The defending champ at this Kansas race, Hamlin also took a trip to victory lane just last weekend — his third win already this season.
Hamlin's pulled himself into a tie for the season-long NASCAR Cup Series odds lead, putting his slow starts the past couple of seasons firmly behind him.
Can he keep the good times rolling against post-qualifying favorite Kyle Larson and the rest of the field? Check out this week's NASCAR odds and AdventHealth 400 betting picks for Kansas.
Odds to win 2024 AdventHealth 400
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +265 | +250 | +250 |
| Denny Hamlin | +550 | +500 | +500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +650 | +725 | +750 |
| William Byron | +750 | +825 | +900 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 | +825 | +850 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1,000 | +1,100 | +1,300 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,100 | +950 | +1,000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,400 | +1,300 | +1,200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,500 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,500 | +1,600 | +1,500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1,900 | +1,700 | +1,800 |
| Joey Logano | +2,200 | +4,000 | +2,500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2,800 | +2,500 | +3,500 |
| Noah Gragson | +3,500 | +3,000 | +3,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,500 | +3,500 | +3,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4,500 | +4,000 | +4,500 |
| Chris Buescher | +6,500 | +6,000 | +6,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +6,500 | +5,000 | +6,000 |
| Michael McDowell | +9,000 | +10,000 | +7,500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +10,000 | +12,500 | +10,000 |
Odds as of 5-5-2024.
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AdventHealth 400 field
Kyle Larson finds himself atop the NASCAR odds board again this week, still leading in overall points despite just one win on the season. A 2021 Kansas winner, Larson's looking to better his runner-up finish from last weekend's Wurth 400.
The man who beat him? That would be Denny Hamlin, who sits just behind Larson as the AdventHealth 400 second choice. Hamlin's pedigree in this race is pristine — he's won it three times — and his early-season form's a far cry for the past two seasons.
Tyler Reddick finds himself third across the board; the winner of 2023's fall Kansas race has also notched Top-11 finishes (including a win) in six straight races this season.
Four other drivers are available at better than 10:1, rounding out a crowded top tier of contenders that defines this have-or-have-not field. After a fairly linear second tier of drivers, we have a steep dropoff to the +8,000 range, with the very bottom of the field testing the rarified air of the +50,000 to +100,000 range.
AdventHealth 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, April 30, 2024.
AdventHealth 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+380)
Since 2021, Larson has led 132, 130, 29, zero, 85, and 99 laps, respectively, in his last five Kansas starts. He has one win (Oct. 2021) to show for it. Still, he has finished eighth or better in each race including a runner-up finish the last two spring races. The Hendrick Motorsports driver also won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March.
William Byron (+700)
He has seven Top-10 finishes in his last nine starts at Kansas. His last three spring race results here are ninth, 16th, and third, respectively. Byron finished 10th in Vegas, and third at Texas this season.
Chase Elliott (+900)
The Texas winner was seventh and sixth in the pair of Kansas races last year, giving him 12 Top-12 finishes in his last 13 Kansas starts.
AdventHealth 400 sleepers
23XI Racing
The 45 car swept both races in 2022 via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1,500) in the fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in that 2022 May race while Wallace led 58 laps in his Fall win. Wallace was also fourth last spring. Tyler Reddick (+600) won in the 45 car last fall and was ninth in the spring race. He finished runner-up to Larson at Vegas and fourth in Texas.
Alex Bowman (+2,500)
The Hendrick Motorsports driver has nine Top-11 finishes in his last 10 Kansas tries including results of ninth, fourth, and 10th in his last three.
AdventHealth 400 fades
Martin Truex Jr. (+750)
Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but two Kansas starts, including sweeping both race wins in 2017. However, since 2020, he hasn’t finished better than fifth with results of ninth, sixth, seventh, sixth, fifth, eighth, and 36th respectively. Truex finished seventh in Vegas and 14th at Texas this season.
Ryan Blaney (+2,200)
The Ford driver was third in Vegas, but 33rd in Texas. He hasn’t finished better than seventh here since 2017, with just three Top-10 finishes in that span.
Ross Chastain (+2,200)
Seventh in both races last year and fifth last spring could land him on the sleepers list. However, while he was fourth in Vegas, he’s never finished better than fifth here, and was 32nd in Texas.
AdventHealth 400 prop pick
Denny Hamlin Top-5 finish (+115)
He was only eighth at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a similar track, this past March and 30th at Texas. But, that Texas finish was predicated by a late-race crash while battling Chase Elliott for the lead. At Kansas Speedway, Hamlin has seven Top-5 finishes in his last nine tries including three wins and a pair of runner-up results in that span. His Next-Gen car finishes here are fourth, second, first, and second, respectively.
Pick: Hamlin Top-5 finish (+115 at DraftKings)
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Popular motor sports futures odds
Kansas Speedway track analysis
Toyota has won seven of the last nine Kansas races (four straight), including nine of the last 14.
The manufacturer as a whole went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race in 2022 (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) for 2022 on this track. Last spring, they went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%). In the playoff race, Toyotas led 83 of 268 laps and finished 1-2.
The closest comparison to this track on the schedule is Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and the drivers who are typically good in the spring there are also strong in Kansas.
AdventHealth 400 trends
- Each of the last eight Kansas winners has started in the top 10. 14 of the last 16 Kansas winners started in the Top 6 rows.
- The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era, with the exception of the 2022 spring race. Denny Hamlin won Stage 1 last spring, and Reddick was sixth last fall.
- The eventual race winner finished in the Top 5 in 7 of the last nine second stages and 10 of the 14 overall second stages. Hamlin was 10th last spring, and Reddick fifth in the fall race.
- The odd thing is, just twice has the eventual race winner at Kansas actually won a second stage (2019 playoff race, May 2022).
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Previous AdventHealth 400 winners
Defending champ Hamlin has won this race three times and enters among the AdventHealth 400 odds favorites.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2022 | Kurt Busch |
| 2021 | Kyle Busch |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2019 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2018 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2016 | Kyle Busch |
| 2015 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2014 | Jeff Gordon |
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How to make AdventHealth 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
