For the purposes of this article the following terms are translated as such:
SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the spread
PLON = Play ON
PLAG = Play AGAINST
SSR = Same Season Revenge
DD = Double Digit
BB = Back to Back
LG = Last game
WL% = Won-Loss percentage
All quoted records are from 1990 thru 2003. Ties (pushes) are not included.
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As a bettor myself, I look forward to the conference tournaments. Annually, I make more money over this 10-day period than I do in any other time of the year.
The reason for my success in these events is that I do not allow myself to get caught up in the myths, the Cinderella stories, or the public's misguided perceptions that always accompany them.
In this article, I will pass along some of my handicapping techniques to help you navigate through these tournaments without having to take a second mortgage on the house.DON'T GO HERE
Let's start with one of the myths - REVENGE. Revenge is the most overrated handicapping tool in the business and it stays true to form in the conference tourneys.
All teams playing with revenge in these events are a losing 508-530-25 and those with double revenge are even worse at 301-337-12. In fact, by following the trail I am about to blaze for you, revenge can actually put money in your pockets by playing AGAINST the myth.
You would think that a team playing with double SSR would come into the game with high intensity and enthusiasm. Maybe those teams do, but the facts don't support the idea.
All teams who are off a SU win and playing with double SSR in the conference tournament are 172-207 ATS, a 45.3 WL%. If those teams were off BB wins and an ATS win, the record falls to 87-119. Out of those 206 teams, the ones playing opponents with a .667 or better WL% were just 65-97 ATS.
Taking those 162 teams and looking at the last meeting between those teams and their opponents, we found that if the revenge margin was 12 or more, the avengers were 19-48 ATS and if that revenge margin was 12 or more and the opponent in this game won his most recent game by more than 10 points, the avengers were just 8-32 to the money.
Here is the angle:
PLAY AGAINST any team in the conference tournaments if it is playing with Double SSR and revenge of 12 or more points from the most recent meeting, is off BB wins and an ATS win, is playing an opponent who owns a .667 or better WL% and is off a win of 11 or more points. Since 1990 - 32-8 for 80%.
As much as revenge means nothing, line and previous results mean everything. In the conference tournaments, favorites are 791-706 ATS since 1990 and favorites who are off a SU loss are 213-66. Starting with a 56.2% base can only lead to profits. Again, follow the trail.
Conference tournament favorites who are off a SU loss but NOT off BB SU and ATS losses are 169-120 for 58.4% winners. This is our base group in which two simple conditions flavor the rest of our study.
Condition No. 1 is that the opponent is off a DD win. That gives us a 40-24 angle good for 62.5% winners. Condition No. 2 is that we are off a DD loss. That gives us a 72-47 angle and 60.5% winners.
Here's where the real profit comes in:
Using our base of 289 games, we eliminated all opponents who had a WL% greater than .555. Now we have 139 winners against just 85 losers for a solid 62% margin. Adding Condition No. 1 brings the record to 31-12 for 72.1%.
Adding Condition No. 2 produces a 59-32 mark, or 64.8% winners. Within that last group, the teams who were playing an opponent who was off a win of any size were 32-9 to the number.
Now, go back to the 139-85 group. If our team lost its last meeting with this opponent by 10 or more points, our hero is 18-2 ATS.
This is the three-part angle:
PLAY ON any conference tournament favorite who is off a SU loss but not BB SUATS losses if his opponent has a WL% of .555 or less and: The opponent is off a DD Win = 31-12 for 72.1% or:
Our team is off a DD loss and is playing an opponent off a win = 32-9 for 78% or: Our team lost its last meeting with this opponent by 10 or more points = 18-2 for 90%.
I hope this information helps you to beat "The Man" in this year's conference tourneys. Keep in mind that, if you don't have the time to ferret out these plays, my picks are always available on the guaranteed picks page of this site.
There, I will put the best plays from the best angles throughout the conference tournaments and, like I do every year, I will make money.