American fans will be hoping the USMNT can exorcise some World Cup demons when it takes on Belgium on Monday night with a quarterfinal berth on the line.
With Folarin Balogun back available for the host nation, my USA vs. Belgium predictions are backing the Americans to get the job done as slight favorites.
My World Cup picks also break down why tonight’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff should produce plenty of goals.
USA vs Belgium predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: USA to advance | -126 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 | -149 |
| Goal scorer pick: Folarin Balogun | +150 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win USA vs Belgium: USA to advance (-126)
If you’re like me, the name Chris Wondolowski is a dirty word. The 2014 World Cup match against Belgium still holds real estate in my brain, and that of many USMNT fans.
Tim Howard’s heroics in goal weren’t enough to see the Americans through against Belgium, as Wondo’s shocking miss at the end of regulation sent the match to extra time, where Belgium won 2-1.
Monday night, we will have an exorcism in the World Cup odds. We're going to see the United States get revenge on Thibaut Courtois and Romelu Lukaku and reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup for just the second time.
The suspension of Folarin Balogun’s red card ban is a massive boost to the Americans, especially given this matchup. The Belgians will want possession, which means there’s more space for Balogun to operate in and utilize his outstanding movement.
USA ranks 10th in direct speed of attack, and the danger of Jeremy Doku running at the back line could see Pochettino cede possession to hit Belgium’s slow back line on the counter-attack.
Belgium have conceded just four goals despite 5.52 xG against, and have committed five errors leading to shots. The USMNT is finishing well, and given those chances, they’ll take them.
With Balogun starting and playing in front of a raucous and rowdy Seattle home crowd, I’m backing the Americans to advance all the way to -135 in the World Cup bracket.
COVERS INTEL: Leandro Trossard has created 15 chances from open play, four more than any other player at the tournament.USA vs Belgium Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-149)
We are going to see goals in this match, as both teams have playmakers galore.
Leandro Trossard has been causing problems for opponents in this tournament. His 16 chances created are tied with Mohamed Salah for the most in the tournament, and his 1.73 xA is the fifth-most of any player.
Jeremy Doku’s pace will be a weapon down the opposite wing. Romelu Lukaku hasn’t been fit to play from the start, but he will be a problem for the USMNT to handle once he enters the match.
Balogun has been outstanding, averaging 1.2 goals per match from just 0.50 xG. Christian Pulisic and Malik Tillman also provide a scoring threat, and Weston McKennie has created eight open-play scoring chances of his own.
Belgium has kept just one clean sheet in the tournament and conceded just two goals to Senegal despite allowing 3.58 xG. They also defeated the Americans 5-2 in a pre-tournament friendly and defeated Tunisia 5-0 in their final warm-up.
This match won’t be as open as that friendly between the two nations, but it did highlight the matchup advantages for both attacks. The Americans showed that even with 10 men, they can still be a threat going forward from deep, which sets them up to hurt Belgium when they win back possession.
I’m playing the Over to -150.
USA vs Belgium goal scorer pick: Folarin Balogun (+150)
Balogun’s availability provides the USMNT with an elite weapon in attack. He’s averaging 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes with an outstanding 27.27% conversion rate, thanks to his movement allowing for high-quality service.
His 23 penalty area touches are the most of any American, averaging a touch inside the box every 9.78 minutes played. He’s also taken 11 of the USA’s 52 shots in the tournament.
Balogun’s movement in the box makes him a threat to score at any time, and I’m backing him as my best goal scorer prop for this match as long as he’s +125 or better.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Will Folarin Balogun play?
Sunday afternoon saw reports break that Balogun’s red card ban had been lifted for one year by the FIFA disciplinary committee.
As was the case with Cristiano Ronaldo’s red card ban, FIFA has the ability under Article 27 of its disciplinary code to suspend the automatic ban that comes with a red card.
The result is that Balogun is now available to start for the USMNT on Monday night, and all signs point to him being a major factor.
USA vs Belgium projected lineup
USA (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Theate, Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
USA vs Belgium injuries
USA: CB Mark McKenzie (Doubtful), CM Cristian Roldán (Doubtful).
Belgium: CB Zeno Debast (Doubtful).
USA vs Belgium weather
Temperatures at kickoff will be in the upper 70s, with plenty of sunshine and winds of 9-16 mph. There's no chance of rain in the forecast.
USA vs Belgium odds
 USA |
 Belgium |
|
|---|---|---|
| +178 | Moneyline | +163 |
| +245 | Draw | +245 |
| Over 2.5 (-138) | Total | Under 2.5 (+117) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch USA vs Belgium
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| Time | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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