England and France each have one match left at the 2026 World Cup, but it's not the one either expected to play.
Instead of competing for the trophy, the two European powers meet in today's third-place playoff.
As my England vs. France predictions explain, France has more motivation, more firepower, and the better chance to leave with bronze medals.
Here are my World Cup picks for their match in Miami at 5 p.m. ET on July 18.
England vs France predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: France | -103 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 | +117 |
| Goal Scorer pick: Kylian Mbappe | -112 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win England vs France: France in regulation (-103)
It’s coming home. And by “it”, I mean the England plane without a trophy, just like we’ve seen from every major tournament now for the past 60 years.
But while England has suffered heartbreak and disappointment before, it’s usually not accompanied by an extra match. Manager Thomas Tuchel publicly admitted that none of his players want to be a part of this fixture, and he claimed the French players don’t either.
While he might be right, France is in a far better position. It’s why they’re favored to come out the victors, with -170 odds at Kalshi.
Not only do they have an extra day’s worth of rest, but they also lack the fitness concerns of the Three Lions. Tuchel would rightly face criticism for risking the likes of Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Reece James, and others who are banged up with the Premier League season just a month away.
Additionally, England’s injury concerns are exacerbated by a lack of depth at fullback and in midfield. After three grueling matches, one of which went to extra time, they’ll likely have a few players forced to play through both physical and emotional fatigue.
Add in the fact that this is the final match for manager Didier Deschamps, and France have some motivation beyond simply being the better team and better suited to win.
Playable to -120.
COVERS INTEL: France ranks fourth in aerial duel win rate (61.4%) on defense, which should neutralize England’s set-piece routines that have led to the third-most attacking headers (3.57) per match.
England vs France Over/Under pick: Over 3.5 (+114)
Both of these nations have the pace to effectively attack directly, and we’re likely to see a fair amount of that here.
As I mentioned, the club campaigns start soon. With that in mind, it’s unlikely you’ll see defenders putting in the same sort of challenges or tracking runs with the gusto they would in the final or a knockout match.
Additionally, the amount of rotation I’m expecting means we’ll see some defensive pairings with little cohesion or familiarity. This typically leads to a higher-scoring affair.
Looking at individual talent, France’s “backup” forwards are still world-class players capable of scoring at any time. On the flip side, their likely defensive starters—especially Ibrahim Konate and Theo Hernandez—are prone to making mistakes.
Part of my expectation for France to win is that they’re a strong candidate to bag three goals. Their attacking quality and depth against an exhausted and drained England side will be enough.
With the Three Lions getting at least one of their own, it gives us a great shot to hit the Over at plus-money.
Back this to +105.
England vs France Goal Scorer pick: Kylian Mbappe (-112)
One French player in particular has something to play for.
Kylian Mbappe can still win the Golden Boot award as he enters the match tied for the lead with Lionel Messi. He’s also just one goal back of the Argentine in terms of the all-time World Cup goalscoring lead.
For that reason, I not only expect him to start but to score. He’s got something to prove after being a no-show against Spain, where he failed to put a single shot on target from three efforts.
England have conceded six goals in their last four matches, and with the expected rotation, I’ll be surprised if France don’t score at least three here.
If that happens, Mbappe is sure to be among the names on the scoresheet. Back him to -135.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
England vs France projected lineup
England (4-2-3-1): Trafford; Spence, Chalobah, Burn, O’Reilly; Mainoo, Anderson; Madueke, Eze, Rashford; Watkins.
France (4-2-3-1): Samba; Gusto, Lacroix, Konate, Hernandez; Zaire-Emery, Kante; Doue, Cherki, Thuram; Mbappe.
England vs France injuries
England: CM Declan Rice (Doubtful), RW Bukayo Saka (Doubtful), CM Jordan Henderson (Out).
France: CB William Saliba (Out).
England vs France weather
It will feel like it’s 100 degrees at kickoff, with winds between 12-21 mph and no chance of rain.
England vs France odds
| England | France | |
|---|---|---|
| +295 | Moneyline | -106 |
| +280 | Draw | +280 |
| Over 3.5 (+117) | Total | Under 3.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch England vs France
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Saturday, July 18, 2026 |
| Time | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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