Both the Dallas Wings and Phoenix Mercury welcome back their star point guards in Commissioner’s Cup play tonight.
No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers is back in action for Dallas after missing four games due to a concussion and illness. And future Hall of Famer Alyssa Thomas is expected to return for Phoenix after a five-game absence with a calf injury.
I take a look at these two guards — one rookie, one veteran — with my Wings vs Mercury predictions and WNBA picks on Wednesday, June 11.
Wings vs Mercury predictions
My Wings vs Mercury best bet: Alyssa Thomas Under 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105 at DraftKings)
Alyssa Thomas has been sidelined since May 30 with a calf injury and had been battling some other ailments before going down five games ago.
The 33-year-old is among a long list of players in and out of the Phoenix Mercury’s lineup to start the season and while she’s back on the court tonight, I wonder just how cautious head coach Nate Tibbets is with his floor general.
“The plan is for AT to play. She’s been trending in the right direction,” Tibbets told the media at practice on Tuesday. “She had a really good day today, along with (Natasha Mack), so I’m really excited to get those two back.”
Thomas is averaging 15.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 7.6 assists in her first five games with Phoenix, logging an average of 33.2 minutes per game.
Some player projections have Thomas putting in her normal workload and output around those season averages, while others expect less floor time as she works her way back into form.
The Dallas Wings don’t provide much pushback defensively, entering with the third-worst defensive rating in the league. That said, the Mercury are bigger home favorites (-6.5) and Thomas could get yanked in the second half to protect her health if the game is out of reach.
Phoenix has an extended layoff following this contest, with the next game coming against Las Vegas on Saturday.
Will Paige Bueckers play tonight?
Yes, Paige Bueckers will be back in action for the Wings tonight after last playing on May 29 in a loss to the Sky. Dallas head coach Chris Koclanes confirmed the star guard is "good to go" and will not be under a minutes restriction.
Paige Bueckers prediction
My Paige Bueckers best bet: Paige Bueckers SGP 10+ points/5+ rebounds/5+ assists (+230 bet365)
Paige Buecker’s impact on the Wings offense has been massive in just a small window.
Dallas’ offensive rating dropped to 96.2 in the four games without the UConn standout owning an advanced metric of 104.5 in the opening five games of the schedule.
Buecker’s missed the bulk of those games with a concussion but sat out an extra contest due to illness. She looked great in practice leading up to this trip and she'll have no restrictions tonight.
Before getting hurt, she was finding her way, putting up an average of 15.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds in her last three games.
Tonight's game models aren’t too far off, with points between 14.2 and 15.6, rebounds ranging from 4.3 to 5.8, and assists forecast from 5.9 to 6.5. With this being her first game in almost two weeks, I’m not as bullish on her scoring output as I am on her passing and rebounding.
With that in mind, I’m combining 5+ assists with 5+ rebounds and adding 10+ points in a same-game parlay, paying +230 at bet365. Paige has met this bar in each of her last two outings and three times in her first six games as a pro.
Wings vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Alyssa Thomas Under 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
Paige Bueckers 4+ assists
Paige Bueckers 4+ rebounds
Paige Bueckers 10+ points
Thomas can stuff the stat sheet but just how much will she play tonight in her return from a calf injury? Some projections fall well below this PRA combo prop.
Different books have different milestones. FanDuel sets a bar at four, so we’ll take Paige to dish out at least four dimes with her forecast for more than six.
Bueckers’ rebounding projections sit above five boards, which clears this 4+ rebound market.
Bueckers’ shooting could take some time to shake off the rust, so we’ll set a lower ask on points at 10+, despite some models calling for 15 points.
Wings vs Mercury odds
Wings vs Mercury live odds
Wings vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +5 (-110) | Phoenix -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas +175 | Phoenix -210
- Over/Under: Over 167 (-110) | Under 167 (-110)
Wings vs Mercury trend
Phoenix won and covered in all three matchups with Dallas last season, with each game going Over the total as well. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Mercury.
How to watch Wings vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, KTVK |
Wings vs Mercury latest injuries
Wings: Teaira McCowan C (Out), Tyasha Harris G (Out)
Mercury: Natasha Mack F (Probable), Alyssa Thomas G (Probable), Megan McConnell G (Out), Kahleah Copper G (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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