Welcome to the opening day of the 2025 WNBA season, where we have three games to look at for our first edition of my daily WNBA prop picks.
There has been a lot of movement and changes in the offseason — not to mention a brand new expansion team — and that has me targeting props that offer plus money on outcomes I think are likely given the matchups we’ll see tonight.
Let’s dive into the new season with my free WNBA picks for Friday, May 16.
WNBA player prop bets for May 16
Arike Ogunbowale o20.5 points (+100)
Brittney Sykes u3.5 assists (+105)
Kelsey Plum o5.5 assists (+110)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Arike Ogunbowale Over 20.5 points (+100 at FanDuel)
Arike Ogunbowale has become one of the most consistent scoring threats in the WNBA. In 2024, she finished with 22.2 ppg for the Dallas Wings, the second-best total of her career and the second-highest total in the league, behind only A’ja Wilson (26.9 ppg).
That success came on a bad team last year, as the Wings won just nine games on their way to winning the draft lottery and picking up Paige Bueckers at No. 1. And with a variety of solid frontcourt options, the Wings will likely be greatly improved in 2025.
But that improvement will likely come throughout the season, and at least in the early going, I expect Dallas to lean heavily on Ogunbowale again. That starts tonight against a Minnesota Lynx team that came up just one game short of winning a WNBA title last year.
Ogunbowale scored at least 21 points in each of her three games against the Lynx last season. She also hit the 21+ point mark 27 times overall last year. Given that level of consistency, I see no reason not to pick her to get Over 20.5 points tonight.
Brittney Sykes Under 3.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)
The Washington Mystics are in for a long season this year. Perhaps no team in the WNBA is more clearly going through a rebuild, as they had three of the top six picks in the 2025 draft and will pick up two more first-rounders in 2026. But while the future may be bright in D.C., there’s not much to look forward to this season for Mystics fans.
Brittney Sykes is likely the best player remaining on the Washington roster and certainly offers the most in terms of veteran presence. That might mean she doesn’t remain on the team all season long — remember, the Mystics are looking towards the future – but for now, she’ll be the glue that holds together a young roster.
That doesn’t mean she’ll be a key playmaker on offense, however. Sykes is likely to act primarily as a shooting guard; even with rookie Georgia Amoore now out with an ACL injury, point guard duties are likely to fall to Jade Melbourne, who took on that role for Australia’s national team, as well as Sug Sutton, who had occasional success in that role with the Phoenix Mercury in the past.
Sykes averaged just 3.1 assists per game last season and didn’t get more than two assists in either of Washington’s preseason games while taking a high volume of shots. I expect Sykes will be leaned on to score a lot more than get the ball to her teammates this year, which is why I love the Under on his assists total tonight.
Kelsey Plum Over 5.5 assists (+110 at DraftKings)
Kelsey Plum spent the last six years of her career as a key cog in the Las Vegas Aces dynasty that won two titles. Now, Plum will take the reins as the primary ballhandler for the Los Angeles Sparks, who are coming off a season in which they ended with a league-worst 8-32 record.
Plum won’t have as many great options for distributing the ball in Los Angeles, especially with Cameron Brink still recovering from her torn ACL. But that will be offset somewhat by the fact that she’ll have more of the ball than she did in Las Vegas, where she still averaged 4.2 assists per game for the Aces last year.
If there’s a team that Plum and the Sparks can have a big game against, however, it’s the expansion Golden State Valkyries. The first WNBA expansion squad since 2008 will be facing an uphill climb, especially without a single rostered player this year out of its first draft class.
In this budding California rivalry, we seem to have two teams that want to play at pace, and that will mean plenty of possessions for Plum to push the ball around to her teammates against an overmatched Valkyries roster made up of former role players from other teams. I expect a big debut in Los Angeles for Plum, and I’m taking her to come in Over her total of 5.5 assists.
Today’s WNBA games
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