UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 Picks and Predictions

Jan 11, 2021 |
UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2 Picks and Predictions
Conor McGregor is the favorite against Dustin Poirier at the main event of UFC 257, with his price moving from an opening line of -184 to his current value of -260.
Conor McGregor is the favorite against Dustin Poirier at the main event of UFC 257, with his price moving from an opening line of -184 to his current value of -260.

Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 2 is the main event for UFC 257 betting on Saturday, January 23, at the Flash Forum on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

This is a highly anticipated rematch between a pair of lightweight contenders hoping to earn another shot at the title. MMA fans are always eager to watch "The Notorious" Conor McGregor when he enters the octagon and UFC odds have McGregor installed as -260 favorite, while Poirier comes back at +215. 

We break down the UFC betting odds for this lightweight battle and give our best picks and predictions for UFC 257: Poirier vs McGregor 2. 

Poirier vs McGregor 2 Fight Odds

Method of Victory Dustin Poirier Conor McGregor
Win outright +215 -260
Win by KO/TKO +470 -155
Win by points +700 +600
Win by submission +1,200 +3,400
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Poirier vs McGregor 2 Betting Preview

McGregor and Poirier fought against each other in 2014, with McGregor winning via first-round knockout. However, much has changed in the more than six years since, including both fighters moving up in weight class.

Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier has gone 6-1 with a no-contest in his last eight fights That span includes victories over highly-ranked fighters such as Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje. The 31-year-old Poirier is fresh off a decision victory against current No. 6-ranked lightweight Dan Hooker, in a bout that was an absolute war and earned Fight of the Night honors.

That win allowed Poirier to bounce back from a title loss against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Poirier is a very strong all-around fighter that combines high-level boxing with good grappling ability. 

McGregor has a career record of 22-4, with 19 knockouts, but has entered the octagon just twice in the last four years as the Irishman has flirted with retirement while pursuing other interests—including a huge payday inside the boxing ring against Floyd Mayweather.

Nonetheless, Notorious is coming off a first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone last January and looks to be in terrific shape in an image he shared on social media two weeks away from UFC 257.

McGregor is a terrific striker who can attack in a variety of ways and overwhelms opponents with his pressure and explosive power. 

Poirier vs McGregor 2 Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier   Conor McGregor
31 Age 32
5-foot-9 Height 5-foot-9
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
72 inches Reach 74 inches
26-6-0 (13 KO) Record 22-4-0 (19 KO)

Poirier vs McGregor 2 UFC Predictions and Betting Picks

PREDICTION: Poirier to win +215 - As good a boxer Poirier is, McGregor's striking is on a whole other level. That said, this betting line may be a bit skewed due to McGregor's popularity and the result of their first matchup more than six years ago.

Poirier has improved vastly as a fighter since then, buzz sawing his way through some top-notch fighters. While there were questions earlier in his career about his chin after first-round knockouts against McGregor and Michael Johnson, Diamond has shown much better durability in recent years.

Poirier's performances against Holloway and Gaethje were especially impressive, as he outstruck an elite kickboxer in Holloway and outboxed one of the hardest hitters in the division in Gaethje.

As dangerous as McGregor is, he doesn't have the aura of invincibility that he used to. Fighting sporadically over the last few years is certainly not ideal and Poirier could have the edge when it comes to both grappling and cardio. 

McGregor opened as a -184 favorite for this matchup with that line since shifting to -260. Keep in mind that -260 odds translate to a win probability of 72.2 percent and while I think Notorious will likely win this fight, I would put that probability at closer to 60/40. That has me leaning towards Poirier, who I think has the superior betting value at +215.

 

PREDICTION: Poirier to win by submission (+1,200) - First off, let me say that I'm pretty much throwing the Khabib fights out the window when I'm evaluating these two. Both of them – like pretty much every other fighter in history – were "smeshed" by Khabib's wrestling. 

However, that's not the only fight where McGregor has looked vulnerable on the ground—especially once he's gassed. Notorious has underrated BJJ skills and strong takedown defense but he's still nowhere near as good as Poirier when it comes to grappling. 

Poirier has a strong ground game with seven submission wins in his career, most recently against Anthony Pettis. Diamond is no stranger to attempting submissions, with seven attempts in his last four fights and even had a tight guillotine choke against Khabib, which the champ escaped from.

This is a longshot bet but with all of McGregor's losses coming by sub, I think there is value in sprinkling a few dollars on it. 

PREDICTION: Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+122) - Notorious has predicted that he'll knock out Poirier "inside 60 seconds" and given that he KO'd Cowboy in 40 seconds a year ago, I won't say it's impossible.

I will say that it's unlikely, given Poirier's excellent footwork and slick defense. Diamond does a great job of moving his head and using his lead elbow to block strikes and he avoids power strikes. He also has the wrestling ability to drag rounds out. 

Three of Poirier's last five fights have gone until at least the fourth round and while I don't necessarily think this fight will go the distance, being able to take the Over 2.5 rounds at plus money is hard to pass up.

Where Can I Bet on UFC Odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available. 

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