UFC betting is back on the odds board, with a big Saturday card for UFC 256 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. And there's a familiar name in the main event, as Deiveson Figueiredo – fresh off a win in the UFC 255 main event – takes on Brandon Moreno.
Multiple oddsmakers talked UFC 256 line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this action report on UFC 256 betting, with sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement, up through the main card’s 10 p.m. ET Saturday start.
Who Are People Betting to Win Figueiredo vs Moreno?
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Figueiredo moved from -300 to -330 at BetMGM Nevada, with Moreno currently +260. "Tickets almost dead even, within five tickets, but money is just over 10/1 on the favorite," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said. In addition, parlay tickets and money are overwhelmingly lopsided on Figueiredo.
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Figueiredo is now out to -385 at PointsBet USA, with Moreno +260. "Nobody ever wants to bet against Figueiredo, and after seeing his last few fights, why would you?" PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said. "He's attracting very lopsided action, 97 percent of tickets, 98 percent of handle. I honestly would not be surprised if he's close to 99 percent come main-event time."
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The SuperBook at Westgate opened the main event at Figueiredo -280/Moreno +240 and is up to -330/+270. "We got a few public bets on Figueiredo, but not much. Sharps are taking Moreno +270," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said. "Parlay liability is on Figueiredo. The book needs Moreno."
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Circa Sports posted a line on this fight Nov. 24, three days after Figueiredo retained his flyweight belt with a first-round submission of Alex Perez. Figueiredo opened as -265 chalk and is up to -305 Thursday night at Circa, with Moreno correspondingly moving from +225 to +255.
"Most of the action has come in on the current champ Figueiredo. I think Figueiredo coming in off of a dominant title defense just a few weeks back has most bettors eager to bet him again, expecting a similar result," Kalikas said. "That said, Moreno should be more than game, and I'd be shocked if we don't see a decent amount of underdog action show before post. Overall, I think it's safe to say we'll likely need the underdog and Over 2.5 rounds on Saturday night."
Who Are People Betting to Win Ferguson vs Oliveira?
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Tony Ferguson made a modest move from -165 to -170 against Charles Oliveira at BetMGM Nevada. "Ferguson has the most tickets of any fighter tonight," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "It's 2/1 tickets on Ferguson, but it's a ton of tickets, and money is 4/1 Ferguson."
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA currently has this fight at Tony Ferguson -170/Charles Oliveira, with Ferguson draing 87 percent of tickets and 91 percent of money.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Tony Ferguson opened -155 and Charles Oliveira +135 at The SuperBook, and the fight is currently at those same numbers. "We've got nice two-way action," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said. "Definitely more sharp action on Oliveira +150, as well as parlay liability." Hernandez said the book expects to need the favorite Ferguson.
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The odds in this bout are much closer than in the main event, with Circa Sports opening Tony Ferguson -160/Charles Oliveira +140, and it's at Ferguson -153/Oliveira +133 Thursday night.
"Most of the early action was coming in pretty strong on Ferguson, causing our price to reach a high point of -180," Kalikas said. "The past few days, we've seen a decent amount of support coming in on the underdog Oliveira, causing the line to come back down. We should continue to see two-way straight action here, but our overall parlay liability will close heavier on Ferguson."
Who Are People Betting to Win Dern vs Jandiroba?
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Mackenzie Dern is -190 to Virna Jandiroba's +150 at PointsBet USA. "Lopsided on the favorite, 88 percent of tickets and 92 percent of handle backing Dern," PointsBet's Patrick Eichner said.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Mackenzie Dern moved from -170 to -175 at The SuperBook, with Virna Jandiroba a +155 underdog. "Some public play on Dern, sharp play on Jandiroba +150," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said, adding the book has parlay liability on Jandiroba and that, as of tonight, needs Dern.
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Circa Sports opened this women's strawweight bout at Mackenzie Dern -170/Virna Jandiroba +150, and it's now at Dern -180/Jandiroba +155.
"Most of the action has been coming in on Dern," Kalikas said of action since the fight went up Nov. 24. "This is a very intriguing and well-matched fight, given that both ladies are extremely high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners. For most fans/bettors, I think this is a case where Dern is the more recognizable name, and I think we're seeing that impact the betting market to a certain extent. Definitely looking forward to seeing this one play out."
Other UFC 256 Betting Action
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kevin Holland opened a -135 favorite against Jacare Souza at BetMGM Nevada, and the line flipped to Souza -120. Tonight, though, it flipped again, going straight from Souza -115 to Holland -115. "We just flipped the favorite," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. "It's been all Holland. Tickets 5/1 and money 20/1. We've been overwhelmed."
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA has Jacare Souza a -120 favorite against Kevin Holland (-105), with the short underdog Holland attracting 78 percent of tickets and 82 percent of handle. And leading off the five-bout main card, Ciryl Gane is a hefty -450 chalk against Junior dos Santos (+320), with tickets and money more than 9/1 on Gane.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The first bout of the night is getting attention at The SuperBook. Chase Hooper opened a -280 favorite against Peter Barrett, and the fight is now at Hooper -335/Barrett +275. "One of our sharp UFC players bet Hooper -280 for $11,200, to win $4,000. The public is all over Barrett so far," SuperBook manager Reyna Hernandez said, noting straight-bet and parlay liability on the sizable underdog. "The book needs Hooper."
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Among other bouts on the 10-fight docket, Kalikas pointed to the Renato Moicano-Rafael Fiziev lightweight bout on the preliminary card. Fiziev opened -140 and is now -145 at Circa Sports, with Moicano a +125 underdog.
"This has definitely been one of the most popular fights at the betting window for this card," Kalikas said. "A decent amount of early action came in on Fiziev, causing the line to climb to -155. It didn't take long for underdog backers to come in and scoop up the perceived value on Moicano at the elevated price. It's a very important fight for both gentlemen, as they look to climb the ranks and get in the title mix at 155 pounds."
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