UFC Fight Night Barboza vs Murphy Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Barboza Stands Tall in Main Event Bout

Edson Barboza will look to make it a third win in a row when he headlines the latest Saturday night UFC card. Read more to find out why we're backing the Brazilian featherweight in our Barboza vs. Murphy betting picks.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 18, 2024 • 17:59 ET • 4 min read
Edson Barboza UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Edson Barboza takes on Lerone Murphy in the main event of tonight's UFC Fight Night betting. Barboza enters the weekend as the No. 12-ranked featherweight contender, while Murphy is on a five-fight win streak inside the octagon. 

This is expected to be a close fight, with UFC odds installing Murphy as a -155 favorite and Barboza coming back at +135. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy picks and predictions for May 18 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Barboza vs Murphy prediction and pick

Fight analysis

Don't put too much stock in Murphy's winning streak since those came against cans, and he hasn't looked that impressive even against weak opponents. He lost the first round to Makwan Amirkhani (just 1-6 in his last seven bouts) and eked out a split decision against Gabriel Santos, who is 0-2 in the UFC. 

Even in his most recent victory against Joshua Culibao, he needed to rely on his rarely-used wrestling. If he had trouble standing up with Culibao, he won't be able to outstrike Barboza, who has highly-technical Muay Thai featuring great leg kicks and crisp boxing.

Despite his advanced age, Barboza knocked out Billy Quarantillo in the first round last April before out-pointing Sodiq Yusuff later that year. Barboza was put on skates in the opening round versus Yusuff, but he weathered that early storm and picked him apart over the final three rounds. 

Murphy doesn't have the power to put Barboza away early, and Barboza's experience in main events could again lead to an advantage in the later rounds. Murphy's tendency to pressure with his boxing will also get him into trouble against Barboza's crisp counter-striking.

Best best analysis

We're getting favorable odds on Barboza since he's 38 years old and has wear and tear on his body after 29 fights in the UFC. That said, he has still shown the ability to beat guys outside the Top 10, and Murphy's stock is inflated due to wins against a low level of competition. 

From purely a skills perspective, Barboza is still a better fighter than Murphy and his physical attributes haven't diminished to the point where he should necessarily be the underdog here. I like the betting value with Barboza at +120, and I expect it to pay off again after winning as a +140 dog against Yusuff last fall.

Barboza vs Murphy odds

Method of Victory Barboza Murphy
To win outright +135 -155
To win by KO/TKO +275 +285
To win by points +500 +170
To win by submission +1,900 +1,500
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of 5-18.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

*Not available in Ontario

Barboza vs Murphy tale of the tape

Barboza   Murphy
38 Age 32
5-foot-11 Height 5-foot-9
145 lbs Weight 145 lbs
75 inches Reach 73 inches
24-11 (14 KO) Record 13-0 (7 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo