UFC Fight Night Gorimbo vs Brahimaj Odds, Picks, and Predictions: 'The Answer' Prevails in Welterweight Showdown

Themba Gorimbo is set up for success when he takes on Ramiz Brahimaj at 170 lbs in Saturday night's main card at the UFC Apex. Find out why by reading Danny Howard's expert Gorimbo vs. Brahimaj betting picks.

Danny Howard - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
May 18, 2024 • 08:16 ET • 4 min read
Themba Gorimbo UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Themba Gorimbo is a premier undercard attraction for tonight’s UFC Fight Night.

Gorimbo made headlines months ago as a human interest story, and now, he’s hoping to make some noise as a potential contender at Brahimaj’s expense. UFC odds have Gorimbo a minor -140 favorite, with Brahimaj coming back at +115. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Gorimbo vs. Brahimaj predictions from the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Gorimbo vs Brahimaj prediction and pick

Fight analysis

It has been over two years since Brahimaj last fought, and while that should be a dead giveaway for Gorimbo, there is a sense that Brahimaj is still dangerous. Gorimbo made his UFC debut getting choked out by A.J. Fletcher, and while he has bounced back with two wins since then, he's going up against an opponent who is very dangerous on the ground.

Gorimbo is incredibly strong, but he has a sense of rawness in his style that you typically don't want to see in a 33-year-old. He has plenty of power and aggressively scores takedowns, and when he gets his opponents on the ground, he'll make things rough and attempt submissions. Gorimbo averages 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and has six submission wins, though he's shown some impressive power in his recent win streak.

Brahimaj won't be able to contend with Gorimbo in striking, so his best hope is to stuff his takedowns and try to make something happen on the ground. He is patient enough to stay in the pocket, look for opportunities to grapple, and then try to take your back once he gets you on the ground.

It is hard to say how fluid he will be considering both ring rust and ongoing recovery from a spinal injury that could have ended his career. There is a chance that he might not show those effects, typically because he maintains a low-impact style focused primarily on wrestling his opponents to the ground with a conservative striking output.

Though Gorimbo runs the risk of getting ahead of himself offensively and getting outsmarted on the mat, his improved striking should be enough for him to open up his takedown game and push ahead of his rusty opponent.

Best best analysis

There's no doubt that Brahimaj has heart and wants to compete, but his submission-heavy style means he does a lot of posturing and prefers to work on the ground. Gorimbo is a rangy striker who fights carefully on the outside as he looks to counter, but he also takes his chances coming forward to create offensive opportunities. He also has solid takedown defense, which means Brahimaj is going to have his work cut out for him to implement his primary game plan.

Even if the layoff weren't an issue, Brahimaj is a one-dimensional fighter who is only dangerous on his back, much like Paul Craig. If you chase him to the mat, then there's a chance he'll scramble out and get in an advantageous position to lock in a submission, or he could reverse a telegraphed takedown attempt and go from there. Because Gorimbo has the range and is developing confidence in his striking, there shouldn't be a reason for him to give up his reach if Brahimaj isn't challenging it.

From the looks of it, Gorimbo is winning this fight unless he makes a gross tactical error and can't get off the mat. With the odds coming down as low as they are since the announcement of this fight, taking Gorimbo straight up is practically a bargain.

Gorimbo vs Brahimaj odds

Method of Victory Gorimbo Brahimaj
To win outright -150 +120
To win by KO/TKO +285 +1,150
To win by points +265 +850
To win by submission +575 +210
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds as of 5-18.

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Gorimbo vs Brahimaj tale of the tape

Gorimbo   Brahimaj
33 Age 31
6-foot-1 Height 5-foot-10
170.5 lbs Weight 170 lbs
77 inches Reach 72 inches
12-4 (2 KO) Record 10-4 (0 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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