The UFC octagon returns to Abu Dhabi on Saturday with an intriguing main event clash between former light-heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev and emerging contender Bogdan Guskov.
Current UFC odds list Ankalaev as a massive -575 favorite over short-notice replacement Guskov, who can be had as a +405 betting underdog. It’s hard to disagree with the odds considering the championship pedigree of Ankalaev, and I’m backing him in my official Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov predictions and free betting picks for July 25.
With not much value left on the moneyline, let’s explore the best way to attack this matchup from a betting standpoint.
Who will win Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov: Ankalaev wins by TKO (-130)
Magomed Ankalaev isn’t thought of as a big finisher, but that’s because he’s largely been mixing it up with the sport's top fighters, including a pair of high-profile fights versus Alex Pereira. Low key though, he has 10 career wins by TKO, six of which have occurred in the UFC.
The real key to this matchup is that it's a five-round fight, so Ankalaev won’t have to rush things, but instead take over when his opponent starts to tire. Bogdan Guskov has only been knocked out once in his career, but he’s also only ever been past round two twice in 22-career fights.
In his most recent outing, Guskov gassed out by round three and was knocked down by a nearly 43-year-old Jan Blachowicz. If that fight had been a five-rounder, there’s no doubt he would have been stopped. Add in that Guskov accepted this matchup on short notice, and you have all the makings for a late finish win for Ankalaev.
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Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov best bet: Over 2.5 Total Rounds (+120)
The best approach to taking out Guskov isn’t to rush things, but instead to take your time and wait until he runs out of steam. Every fighter is dangerous early, and this is not lost on Ankalaev, who will mind his manners in the early portion of the fight to avoid running into trouble.
With Ankalaev’s most recent fight being a first-round knockout loss to Alex Pereira, he will be especially mindful of the dangers of overextending himself too early. Instead, I expect him to use a more defensive approach, staying long and establishing his jab and kicking game from the outside. He may even try wrestling a bit for a change in an attempt to cause his opponent to carry his weight and tire him out.
In the latter half of the fight, he’ll open up and find his TKO finish, but by that time, we will have already cashed our over 2.5 total rounds ticket, which is the best way of approaching this one.
COVERS INTEL: At 33-years old, Bogan Guskov has never defeated a top-10-ranked opponent in his career.Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Magomed Ankalaev | Bogdan Guskov |
| To win outright | -575 | +405 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -130 | +500 |
| To win by decision | +365 | +1000 |
| To win by submission | +850 | +2700 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 +120 |
Under 2.5 -150 |
Odds as of 7-24.
The TKO prop for Ankalaev at -130 is about as deep as I would want to go on that, considering he is coming off a loss and might use a cautious approach, but in that scenario, it would benefit the over 2.5 total rounds, which we are getting at +120. I would be willing to play the over on rounds as low as -110.
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Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov tale of the tape
| Magomed Ankalaev | Bogdan Guskov | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Light Heavyweight | Weight Class | Light Heavyweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 21-2-1 | Record | 18-3-1 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 15 |
| 0 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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