UFC Fight Night Williams vs Tafa Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Tafa Takes Care of Business

Karl Williams has a tough test in front of him in the form of Justin Tafa, and this heavyweight litmus test serves as the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night — taking place this Saturday, March 23, at the Apex in Las Vegas.

Williams has experienced a measured climb in competition since joining the UFC in 2021, though his style may not match up well against Tafa’s aggression. UFC odds have Williams as a -180 favorite, and Tafa as a +150 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Williams vs. Tafa at UFC Fight Night.

Williams vs Tafa fight odds

Method of Victory	Karl Williams	Justin Tafa
To win outright	-190	+150
To win by KO/TKO	+325	+210
To win by points	+235	+1,000
To win by submission	+380	+3,300
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 20, 2024.

Bet on the UFC at Bet99!

Sign Up Offer
One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join Bet99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit of up to $1,000 when using Bet99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Williams vs Tafa picks

Fight prediction: Tafa ML

How the UFC is handling Karl Williams says a lot about the current state of the heavyweight division. The 34-year-old is hailed as a 'prospect' and is being matched up very carefully. Williams is at the point where his physical prime is already over, and there are concerns about his competitive readiness since joining the UFC. He's athletic, very strong, and has the look of someone an organization would like to prop up an aging and declining division — but his performances in the octagon leave much to be desired.

Williams has been a takedown machine since joining the UFC, using his footwork and striking to work inside and then grind his opponents down. In his last fight against Chase Sherman, Williams struggled to get into a rhythm to employ his game plan and couldn't effectively switch to a plan B or fall back on his striking to keep the journeyman away. He won but came out looking vulnerable against the kind of opponent a prospect should be showing out against.

That type of performance might have worked against Junior Tafa, Williams' original opponent, but brother Justin poses a bigger threat. The elder Tafa is physically strong and a pure striker, posting a 100% takedown defense and winning his fights on average in about four minutes. Sherman was able to make things difficult for Williams by exploiting his susceptibility to leg kicks, something he'll expect from Tafa though those shots are going to do more damage.

Simply put, if Williams doesn't have another shade of his game, he's going to be in huge trouble. Tafa isn't the kind of fighter to constantly shoot in on or to employ a jab-and-grab strategy. With Williams having so much success in his takedown game since joining the UFC — and content to drag his fights to the distance — it's difficult to imagine Tafa gets victimized by something that hasn't worked against him.

Instead, I'm siding with Tafa to push the pace, stuff the takedowns, and force Williams to bang it out with him early on. There's enough here to side with Tafa to score an upset against the conservative Williams.

Prediction: Tafa moneyline (+150 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Tafa by KO

There's only one way Justin Tafa wins his fights: by knockout. Considering Williams tends to pick his spots and fights in a time-consuming manner, Tafa should be no less dangerous towards the end of the fight if it does extend past the first round. I haven't seen Williams do any real damage in his four UFC fights, opting to take a technical approach without opening himself up for trouble.

Williams does have a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Tafa, which could suit him if his plan of attack in this fight relies on potshots and lateral movement to keep Tafa from swarming him.

It's something other than what we've seen Williams do by choice, and he looked awkward while sticking to a primarily striking offense against Sherman. Tafa shouldn't allow Williams to set the pace, so he's going to push forward right away and swing for the fences until he hits something.

We'll see how Williams handles the firepower. He hasn't scored a stoppage since 2021 and that was outside the UFC — though he has decent boxing and can do some damage if he relies on his length and footwork to set up those shots. All it will take is a failed takedown attempt, or staying on the inside for too long, for Tafa to find his mark and blast him out with a flurry of heavy shots.

Expect Tafa to exploit the holes in Williams' game, working him over with his heavy strikes on the way to a KO victory.

Pick: Tafa by KO (+210 at Bet99)

Williams vs Tafa betting preview

Justin traded spots with brother Junior and hopes to win his fourth in a row. Tafa needed less than two minutes to stop his opponents and he put Austen Lane down in a single round back at UFC 293 last September. A pure striker in every sense of the word, Tafa lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute against 5.93 absorbed and has never been taken down in his eight fights in the UFC.

The athletic Williams joined the UFC in 2022 and began his MMA career in 2001. Since joining the UFC, he’s been a takedown machine, scoring 12 over his last three fights. He’s content with his wrestling as his primary strategy and has excellent conditioning. All of Williams’ UFC wins have come by decision.

Williams is not a finisher and a selective striker, landing 2.93 significant strikes against 1.80 absorbed with only three knockouts. If he doesn’t get Tafa on the mat, and he'll have trouble doing so, he'll have a difficult time fighting his heavy-handed opponent off him.

Tafa is known for his fight-ending power, but he isn’t as efficient if his opponent escapes the first round — posting a 0-2 record in fights that last longer than one round. 

Williams vs Tafa tale of the tape

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic