The main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, November 20, is Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close fight as two Top 10 bantamweights clash, with UFC betting lines opening with this fight as a pick'em.
Here are our best free UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate picks and predictions for November 20 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Vieira vs Tate fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Vieira vs Tate method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Ketlen Vieira | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +600 | +750 |
| To win by Points | +240 | +195 |
| To win by Submission | +500 | +750 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of November 19, 2021.
Vieira vs Tate picks
Click on the pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Vieira vs Tate betting preview
Ketlen "Fenomeno" Vieira is the No. 7 ranked women's bantamweight contender and is fresh off an upset decision loss to Yana Kunitskaya in February where she was the -280 favorite. Prior to that, she had a unanimous decision win against Sijara Eubanks, which allowed her to bounce back from her first-ever defeat, a first-round knockout at the hands of Irene Aldana.
Fenomeno is 11-2 in her MMA career, including 5-2 in the UFC. The 30-year-old has a background in BJJ and Judo, and prefers to take things to the mat where she can control the fight with her grappling ability.
Miesha Tate is one spot below Vieira in the bantamweight rankings. The former Strikeforce and UFC bantamweight champ came out of retirement in July to knock out Marion Reneau in the third round and claim a Performance of the Night Bonus. That was Tate's first bout since a unanimous decision loss to Raquel Pennington in 2016 after which she took more than four years away from the sport and had three children.
The 34-year-old has notable victories over Holly Holm, Jessica Eye, and Sarah McMann, along with title-fight losses to greats like Ronda Rousey (twice) and Amanda Nunes. Cupcake is at her best on the mat, where she can rely on her strong wrestling, high-end grappling ability, and vicious ground-and-pound.
Vieira vs Tate tale of the tape
| Ketlen Vieira | Miesha Tate | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| 138 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 68 inches | Reach | 65 inches |
| 11-2-0 (2 KO) | Record | 19-7-0 (4 KO) |
Vieira vs Tate UFC prediction and betting picks
Tate outright (-110)
Although Reneau was 44 years old at the time of their fight, that shouldn't take away from Tate's impressive performance after being so long away from the cage. Tate looked quick, landed solid combinations on her feet, controlled where the fight went with her wrestling and pressure, and eventually got the finish with ground-and-pound.
Even though it was a close fight, Vieira didn't impress in her loss to Kunitskaya. She was far less active than her opponent, once again showed holes in her distance striking (which was exposed in her KO loss to Aldana), and needed to take the fight to the mat if she wanted to have any sort of success.
Tate has cleaner striking while standing and won't be a pushover when this fight gets to the ground as she has the strength and wrestling pedigree to battle for top control and stifle Vieira's grappling. She also has more experience at fighting at the highest level of the sport, which should give her the advantage in this five-round main event.
Tate by points (+195)
Tate finished Reneau with strikes but prior to her retirement, four of her previous five wins had come by points. Vieira may have been knocked out by Aldana but that's the only time she has been finished in her career and the only time she has even been knocked down in seven UFC bouts.
Vieira also missed weight by three pounds when she faced Kunitskaya and if her fitness is an issue, Tate will drag her into the deep waters of the championship rounds where she can grind her down.
Fight to go the distance - Yes (-148)
Six of Vieira's last eight fights have gone the distance and while this is scheduled for 25 minutes instead of the usual 15, keep in mind that there often isn't a whole lot of action in her fights. The Brazilian typically tries to utilize her grappling and control, which can result in plenty of fighting for position on the mat.
Tate is no stranger to such tactics herself which should lead to plenty of grappling exchanges and the clock being drained for the full five rounds.
