Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi Predictions, Picks & Odds

Marlon Vera is fighting for survival, and Aiemann Zahabi is fighting for legitimacy. This bantamweight clash is our featured undercard attraction of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night.

Zahabi is the -135 favorite in the UFC odds while Vera is a +105 underdog. Here are my Vera vs. Zahabi predictions and free betting picks from Vancouver.

Vera vs Zahabi prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Vera moneyline (+105 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Vera by decision (+210 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Marlon Vera has gone through the ringer against some of the toughest fighters in the bantamweight division for some time now. While it’s clear he might not be able to get inside the Top 5 of the division, he’s experienced and skilled enough to beat everyone else.

Aiemann Zahabi has benefitted from some generous decisions in legitimately poor performances, but he’s being favored here because of one thing: a winning streak.  

Vera has a granite chin and stiff striking, but his tendency to pick his spots and start slow has been the main thing preventing him from pushing past his ceiling. We’ve seen Vera mix it up with some of the division’s best, and has proven finishing skills with almost 80% of his wins coming inside the distance.

He possesses good kickboxing and BJJ skills, and his power carries throughout the fight, making him a dangerous opponent once he decides to engage. He’s on a two-fight losing streak, where he lost by decision to Deiveison Figuieredo and a title challenge to Sean O’Malley.

Zahabi is decent in many areas, but there’s nothing about him that stands out aside from his tendency to win razor-thin decisions. An ancient Jose Aldo should have beaten him and literally collapsed out of exhaustion at times against Zahabi.

Even then, Zahabi won by the narrowest of margins.

His elusive footwork and defensive fighting can make him a chore to watch and fight, and for someone like Vera, who already fights like he’s walking through the mud, his awkwardness tends to be his best weapon.

Vera has been losing to elite fighters, and Zahabi has been winning against older ones past their primes. The key to this fight is whether or not Vera can target Zahabi’s 37-year-old legs with his chopping leg kicks to slow him down and be in range for his heavy hands.

I have to believe that Vera is going to be dialed in for this fight because it will be difficult for him to win a close decision in Zahabi’s backyard, but there’s too much of a skill gap between these two for me to ignore Vera’s negative tendencies. Vera is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Vera’s durability and high-level experience is offset by his slow pace and delayed offense. Zahabi’s strength is in his awkwardness and movement. Against this level of opponent, I can see Vera potentially breaking through Zahabi’s defense and landing a big shot that could put him down, but I can also see Vera doing too little until almost too late.

I’m backing Vera to win by decision.

Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi odds

Method of Victory	Vera	Zahabi
To win outright	+105	-130
To win by KO/TKO	+575	+1150
To win by decision	+205	+100
To win by submission	+1050	+2250
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 10-18.

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Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi tale of the tape

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