Marina Rodriguez vs Michelle Waterson is the main event at UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, May 8 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Both strawweight contenders will compete at flyweight in this matchup after accepting this fight on short notice. UFC betting lines opened with Rodriquez as a -200 favorite while "The Karate Hottie" Waterson comes back at +170.
We bring you our best free Rodriguez vs. Waterson picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night on Saturday, May 8.
Rodriguez vs Waterson fight odds
| Method of Victory | Marina Rodriguez | Michelle Waterson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Outright | -210 | +168 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +450 | +1,400 |
| Win by Points | -105 | +290 |
| Win by Submission | +1,800 | +1,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Rodriguez vs Waterson betting preview
Marina Rodriguez is fresh off a second-round knockout of Amanda Ribas in January, which earned her a Performance of the Night bonus.
The Brazilian is 3-1-1 in her last five fights, with her only defeat in that span coming by way of split decision against Carla Esparza last year. Rodriguez has excellent Muay Thai and lands 5.82 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.27.
Michelle "The Karate Hottie" Waterson is coming off a split-decision victory against Angela Hill last September. The former Invicta atomweight champion at 105 pounds is 4-2 in her last six fights, with each bout going the distance.
As her nickname suggests, Waterson has a background in karate and made the transition from modeling (and being a ring girl) to fighting inside the octagon back in 2007. The 35-year-old is more than just a pretty face though, possessing very good technical kickboxing ability and an underrated ground game with nine career wins by way of submission.
Rodriguez vs Waterson tale of the tape
| Marina Rodriguez | Michelle Waterson | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 35 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-3 |
| 115 lbs | Weight | 115 lbs |
| 67 inches | Reach | 62 inches |
| 13-1-2 | Record | 18-8 |
Rodriguez vs Waterson UFC prediction and betting pick
PREDICTION: Rodriguez to win (-200) - Rodriguez's biggest weakness is her defensive wrestling, but Waterson prefers to keep things standing up and even if she does try to take this to the mat, she likely won't have the strength to keep it there.
Waterson is a very good technical striker but has been overpowered by bigger and stronger fighters before. This fight taking place at 125 pounds heavily favors the bigger Marina Rodriguez. Look for the Brazilian's length, power, and aggressiveness to make the difference in what should be a striking clinic.
PREDICTION: Rodriguez to win by points - Rodriguez may have won her last fight by way of a spectacular second-round knockout but each of her previous five fights went the distance.
Waterson hasn't been knocked out since 2009 when she was just beginning her MMA career. Matter of fact, she has only been knocked down once in nine UFC fights, against current strawweight champ Rose Namajunas in 2017. Back Rodriguez to win by points.
PREDICTION: Fight to go the distance - Yes - Most of Rodriguez's previous fights have gone the distance and Waterson isn't known for her knockout power either.
While the Karate Hottie racked up finishes early in her career (mostly by sub), each of her last seven fights has gone the distance. Regardless of who wins this fight, expect it to go the full 25 minutes.
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