Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones look to climb the lightweight ladder and steal the show in our featured undercard attractions on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night. It’ll be the volume striking of Oki versus the frenetic grappling of Jones in a fight that could go either way.
Jones is the -140 favorite while Oki is a +115 underdog in the UFC odds. Here are my Oki vs. Jones predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, September 6.
Oki vs Jones prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Jones moneyline (-140 at BET99)
- My best bet: Fight will go the distance (-130 at BET99)
Fight analysis
The UFC is sparing no expense when it comes to quality fights on this Paris card, and this lightweight clash between two deeply talented prospects is no exception.
Mason Jones and Bolaji Oki fight at a fast pace, showing skill in both striking and grappling, and their physical strength could turn this into a war of attrition.
Oki lands a staggering 7.05 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.76 in return, paired with a 62% striking defense and an 85% takedown defense.
He is constantly throwing combinations behind an accurate jab and has shown that he can scramble back to his feet in the rare moments he is grounded. Oki recently rebounded from a September loss to Chris Duncan with a dominant win over Michael Aswell, though he has shown a tendency to fade in the later rounds.
Jones is the grappler in this matchup, coming off a dominant decision win over Jeremy Stephens, where he nearly doubled him up in strikes and landed eight takedowns.
The Welshman is a relentless wrestler who can also box effectively, though his striking alone won’t carry a fight. His UFC losses have occurred when he was unable to secure takedowns, making it clear that wrestling is the key to his victories.
Oki is a tall lightweight at 5-foot-10, which makes him harder to ground, but Jones has the physicality and persistence to close the distance and wear him down with repeated attempts.
Oki’s activity may give him an early edge, but Jones has the tools to dictate pace with his grappling and slow Oki’s output. It will be competitive, but Jones is the pick.
Best bet analysis
These two aren’t known for finishing their fights despite their lofty accomplishments in striking and grappling. With Oki a volume striker and Jones an aggressive grappler, this could be a toss-up in terms of who wins, but this is a fight that will go down to the wire.
There’s no reason for Jones to do anything else besides rack up control time on the ground, or for Oki to flurry if he breaks Jones’ defense. The best bet for this fight is that it goes the distance.
Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Oki | Jones |
| To win outright | +115 | -140 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +290 | +390 |
| To win by decision | +335 | +170 |
| To win by submission | +2000 | +1000 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 9-6.
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Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones tale of the tape
| Oki | Jones | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 73 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 10-2 | Record | 16-2 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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