UFC Fight Night Luque vs Buckley Odds, Picks, and Predictions: New Mansa Leaves a Mark

Joaquin Buckley and Vicente Luque meet at the crossroads in this welterweight clash, serving as the co-main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card taking place this Saturday, March 30, at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.

Buckley faces his biggest test at welterweight in the experienced Luque, whose performances in recent fights give cause for concern as he faces a young, strong opponent.

UFC odds have Luque a -115 favorite, and Buckley is a -110 underdog. 

Here are my free betting picks for Buckley vs. Luque at UFC Fight Night.

Vicente Luque vs Joaquin Buckley fight odds

Method of Victory	Luque	Buckley
To win outright	-115	-110
To win by KO/TKO	+260	+250
To win by points	+500	+300
To win by submission	+540	+2,250
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 29, 2024.

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Luque vs Buckley picks

Fight prediction: Buckley ML

Since moving down from middleweight, Buckley has filled out as a strong welterweight and has won his last two fights.

Buckley is athletic, explosive, and physically strong to the point where it is very difficult to take him down to the mat.

Middleweights had trouble with his strength and striking power, but he didn't have the physical dimensions to compete for a sustained period of time. If middleweights had to work when Buckley fought them, then Luque is going to have a hard time being on the smaller side of the welterweights.

Luque is all about tough times, and he’s practically a striking magnet with the sheer amount of punishment he’s taken lately. The Brazilian is an action-heavy fighter whose busy striking complements a solid BJJ game, but he tends to get dragged into brawls where he takes an absurd amount of punishment. When Luque fought Geoff Neal, Neal busted him up so badly that a brain bleed was discovered post-fight, which is one of the worst injuries a fighter can have.

Perhaps that should have been the end for Luque, but he was cleared for competition ahead of a horrible performance against Rafael Dos Anjos where he just didn't look right. Even if Luque were closer to his best, this would still be a hard fight for him. Buckley is strong, hits like a mule, and would be difficult to control on the mat long enough for Luque to lock in a submission.

Factoring in the nature of his injury, cleared or not, and how poor he looked against Dos Anjos doesn't instill confidence that he could turn Buckley away. Knowing Luque, he'll open up and Buckley will be right there to land some bombs.

Buckley is the pick. He'll be too strong and able to take advantage of a slowing battler who has seen better days. 

Prediction: Buckley moneyline (-110 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Buckley KO

Luque benefited from Dos Anjos coming in with a terrible game plan that saw him try to grapple, essentially playing to his strengths, and allowing Luque to get through that fight without engaging in the types of brawls we're used to seeing him in. Unfortunately, Buckley won't come in trying to outsmart Luque and will push the pace early to see how willing Luque is to engage.

I have my concerns for Luque's overall readiness despite being given a clean bill of health. He's up against a strong striker closer to his prime than he is, can fight hard every round, and doesn't seem to have a gap in his game that Luque can exploit in his current state. All Luque has is grit and experience, and that won't count for much if this ends up being another fight where he defends strikes with his face.

Buckley might turn into something at welterweight, and his development in recent fights suggests there is something to invest in. Luque is 1-2 in his last three, looked terrible in his last fight, and is showing signs of wear and tear. Because these two tend to fight with finishes in mind, expect Buckley and Luque to test their wills right off the bat.

That doesn't sound like the kind of fight Luque can win at this point. I'm compelled to side with Buckley's youth and size to overwhelm the veteran, and potentially deliver an uncomfortable beating in the process. My best bet for Buckley vs. Luque is Buckley to win by knockout.

Pick: Buckley by knockout (+250 at Bet99)

Luque vs Buckley betting preview

Buckley is an explosive striker who has looked very good since dropping down to welterweight last year. He has wins over Alex Morono, Andre Fialho, Albert Duraev and a legendary knockout win over Impa Kasanganay. He was undersized at middleweight but was mostly competitive in losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Chris Curtis prior to moving to welterweight.

“New Mansa” lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.31 in return and on the ground he lands 1.51 takedowns per fight at 36% accuracy. Overall, Buckley’s fights last on average nine minutes and fifty-eight seconds and he has 12 wins by knockout.

Luque is well rounded offensive fighter and likes to take his chances. He’s coming off an unimpressive win over Rafael Dos Santos, and that came after losses to Neal and Belal Muhammad. Aside from that, he has wins over Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley and Jalin Turner.  He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.15, but he is very aggressive on the ground, where he averages 1.04 takedowns per fight at 60% accuracy. He's also a finisher with his average fight time being slightly over 10 minutes, and has 19 finishes in 22 wins with 11 knockouts and 8 submissions.

Buckley’s strategy will be keeping the fight off the ground and forcing Luque to stand and strike with him, and he can do that because he has good takedown defense and is physically strong. He only has a 33% striking accuracy, which he’ll need to tighten up on as Luque might look for counters or an opportunity to shoot in. For Luque to win, he’ll need to avoid trading with Buckley and keep the fight against the cage, essentially smothering him so he won’t take too much punishment.

Vicente Luque vs Joaquin Buckley tale of the tape

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