Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva Predictions, Picks & Odds

Diego Lopes faces off against Jean "Lord" Silva in the headline event at "Noche UFC" on Saturday from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio.

Lopes is the No. 2-ranked featherweight contender, but UFC odds have Silva as a significant -230 favorite despite sitting eight spots lower in the rankings. 

Several of the highly-regarded fighters at Fighting Nerds have lost recently, but I'm betting on Silva to buck that trend. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva predictions and picks for September 13.

Lopes vs Silva prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Silva moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-170 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Jean "Lord" Silva has won 13 fights in a row while going 6-0 inside the octagon. His last five wins have come by way of stoppage, and he's fresh off a submission win against Bryce Mitchell that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

Diego Lopes is coming off a title loss to Alexander Volkanovski in April. Lopes dropped Volk early but was largely picked apart for five rounds, getting outstruck 158-63 and landing just 32% of his significant strikes. 

That defeat snapped a five-fight winning streak for Lopes, who is huge for this division and combines heavy hands with high-end grappling. That said, he doesn't have the offensive wrestling to get the fight to the mat, and his striking is sloppy and inaccurate. 

Lopes also tends to brawl and relies on his chin to eat shots. That poor head movement will lead to him getting hurt by Silva, who is a dynamic striker with a diverse arsenal of weapons. 

Silva also has good defensive wrestling with a career takedown percentage of 86%. He'll be able to keep this fight standing up, where his precision and power will be too much for Lopez.

Best bet analysis

Silva has a slew of early finishes in the UFC, but this is a big step up in competition, with Bryce Mitchell the best opponent he's previously faced. 

Lopes is hittable, but he's also very durable and will easily be the toughest test of Silva's career. Thanks to his iron chin, Lopes hasn't been knocked out since 2018, when he was draining himself to fight at bantamweight.

Lopes is a dangerous fighter, but his last three bouts have gone the distance. We saw him pace himself in his previous fight against Volk — likely to prevent himself from gassing out in a five-round main event. 

Combine that with Silva's patient approach in the opening round, and this bout should go Over 2.5 rounds.

Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva odds

Method of Victory	Lopes	Silva
To win outright	+195	-240
To win by KO/TKO	+575	-115
To win by decision	+1050	+475
To win by submission	+575	+1000
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 9-13.

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Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva tale of the tape

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