UFC Fight Night: Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal Odds, Picks & Predictions

The Chepe Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson featherweight fight is one of our featured attractions on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard and one of our featured events for UFC betting.

This grapple-heavy contest features the improving Jackson against the streaking Mariscal, a UFC betting favorite for the first time in his three-fight tenure.

UFC odds have Mariscal as a -230 favorite and Jackson as a +180 underdog. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Mariscal vs. Jackson predictions from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Jackson vs Mariscal prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Mariscal moneyline (-230 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 2.5 rounds (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

This isn’t an easy fight to pick, especially as this fight figures to be a stylistic mirror match. Both fighters prefer to grapple, though they can fall back on their striking when necessary. Mariscal bulldogs his way in and never lets up the pressure, and his attack varies depending on what’s working for him or not. He needed to mix in both his wrestling and kickboxing to edge Morgan Charriere in his last fight, where he was able to slow Charriere down after two tightly contested rounds to dominate him in the third and get the win. He’s an accomplished kickboxer and BJJ practitioner, and he’s finally getting some recognition after being a perpetual underdog since joining the UFC.

Jackson emphasizes his wrestling more than Mariscal, but he isn’t afraid of putting that on the shelf and getting into a striking war. His “Leech” namesake is appropriate, particularly in the sense that it is hard to shake him off if he gets in a wrestling rhythm and starts to grind you down. That might be problematic for Mariscal, who gets too caught up in forcing offensive opportunities, and he can be open for takedowns.

Though Marsical has thrived as an underdog, the truth is that he’s winning fights that could have easily gone the other way. He’s not overwhelming fighters with his standup or his ground game, but doing just enough to outwork them. This could be a situation where both fighters’ wrestling skills cancel the others out, and if that does end up being the case, Marsical is easily the better striker of the two.

That’ll be enough for me to cautiously pick Mariscal, provided he can avoid getting dragged down by Jackson in the early rounds.

Best best analysis

This fight is so tough because Mariscal often gives up ground early and retakes control as the fight progresses. He hasn’t fought a grappler as refined as Jackson, though, so early trouble could see him being the exhausted party who doesn’t have enough to seal the deal before time runs out. 

Most scenarios I’m seeing in this fight save the dramatics later in the fight, with this looking likely to go to the scorecards. My best bet for this fight is that it goes over 2.5 rounds. 

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Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal odds

Method of Victory	Jackson	Mariscal
To win outright	+185	-240
To win by KO/TKO	+875	+205
To win by decision	+540	+190
To win by submission	+640	+700
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 8-10.

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Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal tale of the tape

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