Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis is the main event at UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, February 20 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
UFC odds have Blaydes as a -450 favorite while Lewis comes back at +330 for a fight between the two heavyweight contenders that was originally supposed to take place in November.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this heavyweight battle as we bring you our picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis on February 20.
Blaydes vs Lewis Fight Odds
| Method of Victory | Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -450 | +330 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +120 | +460 |
| To win by Points | +320 | +1,600 |
| To win by Submission | +440 | +2,300 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Blaydes vs Lewis Betting Preview
Curtis "Razor" Blaydes is the No. 2 contender in the heavyweight division and is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Alexander Volkov in June. There wasn't much action during the fight, but Blaydes absolutely rag-dolled the Russian for 15 minutes, giving him his fourth consecutive win.
The 29-year-old Blaydes has fought 17 times in his career with 14 wins, two losses, and one fight that was originally a stoppage win and then declared "no contest" after he tested positive for marijuana. Blaydes, whose COVID-19 diagnoses postponed the November fight with Lewis, averages a whopping 6.63 takedowns per 15 minutes and is the best wrestler in the division.
Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis enters as the No. 4-ranked heavyweight and is fresh off a knockout win over Aleksei Oleinik in August. He now has three wins in a row, bouncing back from consecutive losses—one of which came against Daniel Cormier for the heavyweight championship in 2018.
The 35-year-old is a massive man that walks around at 290 pounds before cutting for the weigh-in. His conditioning is subpar but he has terrific punching power, with a UFC record 11 knockouts in the heavyweight division.
Blaydes vs Lewis Tale of the Tape
| Curtis Blaydes | Derrick Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| 261 lbs | Weight | 265 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 14-2-0 (10 KO) | Record | 24-7-0 (19 KO) |
Blaydes vs Lewis UFC Predictions and Betting Pick
PREDICTION: Blaydes to win -325 - Any time big boys throw down, all it takes is one punch for the underdog to pull off the win and Lewis is one of the most powerful punchers around. He might be the hardest puncher in the octagon outside of Francis Ngannou, who is the only man to defeat Blaydes—finishing him twice.
That said, Lewis has struggled against opponents who employ wrestling. Besides getting absolutely dominated on the ground by Cormier, he was taken down a total of 17 times by Roy Nelson, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Blagoy Ivanov, and Ilir Latifi.
Blaydes is a better wrestler than those four fighters and is also more than capable on his feet, as he showed when he outboxed Junior dos Santos last year. It might not be pretty, but Blaydes should be able to grind out a victory with his relentless takedowns and top control.
PREDICTION: Blaydes to win by KO/TKO (+120) - Blaydes might not be known for his stand-up striking but four of his last seven wins have come via knockout due to his brutal ground and pound.
Lewis has a granite chin but four of his five UFC defeats have come by knockout, and in those previously mentioned fights against Abdurakhimov, Ivanov, and Latifi he was controlled on the ground for significant stretches.
While those three fighters had a difficult time damaging him when they had top control, Blaydes will be able to land strikes, especially after tiring Lewis out with non-stop wrestling.
PREDICTION: Fight to start Round 3 (-106) - While many heavyweight bouts are the kind where you get up to grab a beer and miss a knockout, neither of these two fighters have a track record for early stoppages. Eight of Lewis' last 12 fights have hit at least the midway mark of Round 3, while four of Blaydes' previous six wins have gone at least that long.
Blaydes will have a hard time breaking through Lewis' defense off his back early but as the fight drags on, Lewis' suspect cardio will be tested by Razor's constant wrestling and takedowns—making him more susceptible to ground-and-pound damage.
Expect this fight to at least go past the first two rounds before Blaydes can put away the Black Beast.
Where Can I Bet on UFC Odds?
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