Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig Predictions, Picks & Odds

The co-main event of tonight's UFC Fight Night pits veteran submission specialist Paul Craig against prospect Rodolfo Bellato in a light heavyweight clash.

Bellato looks to get back in the mix as Craig returns to light heavyweight amid a losing streak. UFC odds currently favor Bellato at -450, and I expect him to overwhelm his opponent at the Apex.

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Bellato vs. Craig predictions from Las Vegas for Saturday, May 17.

Bellato vs Craig prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Bellato moneyline (-450 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Bellato to win by KO (-145 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Despite Paul Craig having lost four of his last five fights and being a prohibitive underdog, and Rodolfo Bellato coming off a draw to Jimmy Crute last February, this fight is getting the co-main event spot. 

The UFC may be positioning this bout as a showcase opportunity for Bellato, while Craig still serves as a decent test for rising prospects. While Bellato is a significant favorite and Craig looks to be on the downswing, there is still danger for the A-side in this one.

Craig is returning to the light heavyweight division after an unsuccessful stint at middleweight, where he hoped to find more success. He defeated Andre Muniz, but then dropped three straight to Brendan Allen, Caio Borralho, and Bo Nickal. Craig’s limitations were no different at middleweight as his striking remains underdeveloped, and his only reliable path to victory is pulling off a submission from his back.

On the other hand, Bellatyo is an aggressive striker who lands 6.28 significant strikes per minute. He's a kill-or-be-killed type fighter, and before the draw with Crute, he was 2–1 with all three of those bouts ending by knockout. He’s also a solid wrestler, having landed at least one takedown in three of his four UFC fights, and he holds a perfect 100% takedown defense rate.

While Craig’s submission skills are always a threat, his porous striking and inability to get the fight to the ground make it difficult to see him pulling off an upset. 

Best bet analysis
Dating back to July 2022, Craig is 1-5 and has been stopped three times and outstruck by a margin of 162-234.

At light heavyweight, he was getting knocked out by every good striker he fought, and he happened to find varied success with shock submissions that kept his stock up this long.

Bellato is green, but this fight is made for him to get a good win over a proven veteran. I expect Bellato to blast through Craig’s poor striking and takedown offense, ultimately securing a win by knockout.

Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig odds

Method of Victory	Bellato	Craig
To win outright	-450	+350
To win by KO/TKO	-145	+1600
To win by decision	+405	+900
To win by submission	+550	+875
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 5-17.

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Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig tale of the tape

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