UFC 323 is a landmark event for the organization, as it not only closes a strong 2025, but serves as the final pay-per-view for the company ahead of their new licensing deal with Paramount next year.
This card is loaded with excellent fights, and the UFC 323 prelims feature former title challengers and comebacking contenders hoping to end the year on a high note.
Here are my best UFC 323 prelim predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas.
UFC 323 prelim picks and predictions
Marvin Vettori vs. Bruno Ferreira
• Prediction: Vettori moneyline (-115)
• Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
• Prediction: Barber moneyline (-180)
• Best Bet: Barber by decision (-110)
Chris Duncan vs. Terrance McKinney
• Prediction: Duncan moneyline (-170)
• Best Bet: Duncan by KO/TKO/DQ (+175)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 323 prelim odds and picks
Marvin Vettori vs. Bruno Ferreira fight odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Vettori | Ferreira |
| To win outright | -115 | -105 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +1050 | +235 |
| To win by decision | +155 | +440 |
| To win by submission | +675 | +900 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 12-6.
It’s clear that Marvin Vettori is now on the back nine and isn’t threatening any top middleweights in the near future. That doesn’t apply to Bruno Ferreira, who has a five-minute gas tank going up against one of the most durable and experienced fighters he’s ever faced.
Vettori’s the more polished striker, and he’ll have a chance to wrestle once Ferreira starts to tire, and Ferreira’s 57% takedown defense isn’t going to do him any favors if he doesn’t knock Vettori out early.
This is an appropriate step back in competition for Vettori, who should be able to escape the first round. I’m picking Vettori to win, but the best play for this fight is trusting Vettori’s chin and picking the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds.
Prediction: Vettori moneyline (-115 at BET99)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-160 at BET99)
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Barber | Silva |
| To win outright | -200 | +155 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +550 | +1800 |
| To win by decision | -115 | +350 |
| To win by submission | +1800 | +475 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 12-6.
Maycee Barber has been dealing with health issues, and she’ll be facing off against Karine Silva with 20 months of ring rust on her back. That said, Barber shouldn’t struggle too mightily here unless she’s not at 100%.
Silva is a low-output striker and her takedown defense has been terrible in recent fights. Barber has the better technical striking and she’ll be able to effectively pressure Silva, and she has good scrambles. Silva struggles to maintain top control when she does tend to get fighter on the mat.
I’ll go with Barber to win the striking exchanges, pushing the pace and cruising past Silva for a decision win.
Prediction: Barber moneyline (-180 at BET99)
Best Bet: Barber by decision (-110 at BET99)
Chris Duncan vs. Terrance McKinney fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Duncan | McKinney |
| To win outright | -155 | +125 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +185 | +365 |
| To win by decision | +875 | +1350 |
| To win by submission | +325 | +365 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 12-6.
Don’t expect this to be long or pretty. These two have a combined average fight time of five minutes, have identical offensive numbers in striking and takedowns, and are notoriously strong finishers.
However, Terrance McKinney tends to shut down when he comes across an opponent who isn’t going anywhere, and Chris Duncan has been on a good run and has momentum on his side.
Duncan should end up being the better fighter, but McKinney’s explosiveness can’t be denied. I’m picking Duncan to get his fourth win in a row, and my best bet for this fight is that he gets it done inside the distance with a knockout.
Prediction: Duncan moneyline (-170 at BET99)
Best Bet: Duncan by KO/TKO/DQ (+175 at BET99)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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