Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida collide in a big-time heavyweight showdown, with the winner to be on the short list to challenge for the heavyweight title in our featured bout of the UFC 321 undercard.
Here are my Volkov vs. Almeida predictions for this October 25 bout.
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Volkov vs Almeida prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Almeida moneyline (-190 at BET99)
- My best bet: Almeida to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+425 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Alexander Volkov remains one of the most skilled and technically sound heavyweights in the UFC, but this is a bad match for him.
His controversial decision loss to Ciryl Gane showed why he’s an elite striker, but Jailton Almeida presents an entirely different kind of danger with his relentless wrestling.
This fight is a classic "striker vs. wrestler" matchup where discipline and pressure will determine the outcome.
Volkov’s strengths are rooted in fundamentals. He’s a tall, rangy kickboxer with clean mechanics, an educated jab, and excellent command of distance.
He lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.99, and is always in exceptional condition. He does his damage through accumulation and precision, wearing opponents down, but lacks true heavyweight power.
Strong grapplers have been a problem for him in the past. Despite a respectable 72% takedown defense, the right kind of wrestler can turn that number meaningless — as seen in his defeats to Curtis Blaydes and Tom Aspinall.
That’s where Almeida thrives.
The Brazilian powerhouse is an athletic marvel, easily the best pure wrestler in the division, and his game plan rarely changes: close the distance, secure the takedown, and dominate from top position.
He lands 6.58 takedowns per fight, absorbing just 0.89 significant strikes per minute, finishing most opponents inside the distance. Almeida’s striking is functional but secondary; he uses it only to bridge the gap before exploding into takedown entries.
His first-round destruction of Serghei Spivac underscored just how overwhelming his physicality and control can be. Still, his striking and ring IQ are exploitable by those who can withstand his pressure.
Volkov’s key to victory lies in staying upright and keeping Almeida off him, keeping this a rangey fight. But the problem is Almeida’s explosiveness can negate range quickly. Once Volkov gets pressed to the fence, his tall stance and narrow base make him easy to scoop up and dump.
Even if he defends the first shot, Almeida’s chain wrestling and sheer strength will eventually drag the fight to the mat, where Volkov’s length becomes a liability instead of an asset.
As disciplined as Volkov is, this matchup leans heavily toward Almeida’s pressure and pace. Volkov is strong and smart enough to handle himself early on, but it borders on being a certainty Almeida will overwhelm him and get him on the mat.
Best bet analysis
Almeida’s wrestling is inevitable, and Volkov’s history of falling to efficient wrestlers doesn’t bode well for him.
Whether it happens in the first round or later, Almeida is getting his takedowns and will make each trip to the ground a costly one for Volkov.
My best bet is Almeida by stoppage, as his ground control and punishing strikes will put Volkov down and out.
Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Volkov | Almeida |
| To win outright | +160 | -190 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +290 | +425 |
| To win by decision | +675 | +475 |
| To win by submission | +1800 | +160 |
| Draw | +5000 | +5000 |
Odds as of 10-24.
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Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida tale of the tape
| Volkov | Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 34 |
| 6-foot-7 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 80 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 38-11 | Record | 22-3 |
| 24 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 4 | Wins by submission | 13 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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