The UFC heads to the United Arab Emirates as Etihad Arena hosts the UFC 321 pay-per-view on Saturday.
Headlining the card are two highly anticipated title fights, rounding out what should be an entertaining night.
Below, I break down the latest UFC odds and offer my free betting picks for Saturday, October 25.
Best UFC 321 parlay picks
Valter Walker moneyline
Mackenzie Dern moneyline
Tom Aspinall in round 1
Valter Walker moneyline
The prelims feature the “King of Heel Hooks” and No. 15-ranked heavyweight contender Valter Walker. After a questionable decision loss to Lukasz Brzeski in his UFC debut, Walker has found his rhythm and has finished each of his past three opponents in the first round.
All three victories came by heel hook, though Walker also carries serious knockout power. Six of his 14 professional wins have come via KO. Either way, UFC newcomer Louie Sutherland is walking into a nightmare matchup.
Sutherland is a massive guy, but has struggled when stepping up in competition. Bouncing around regional promotions, he holds just a 1-2 record against opponents from higher-level organizations such as Bellator and PFL (before the merger).
A surging Walker represents a huge step up, and considering Sutherland couldn’t cut it in easier promotions, this leap to the UFC against someone as dangerous as Walker should be far too much to handle.
Mackenzie Dern moneyline
The co-main event and first title fight of the evening features the vacant strawweight championship bout between No. 1-ranked Virna Jandiroba and No. 5-ranked Mackenzie Dern. Despite the rankings gap, Dern enters as a -160 favorite, and for good reason.
These two met nearly five years ago, when Dern handed Jandiroba her second career loss. Dern proved to be the superior fighter across the board, and there’s little reason to believe this rematch unfolds differently.
Dern outpaced, outstruck, and outgrappled Jandiroba across three rounds in their first meeting. This being a five-round title fight also favors Dern, who has gone the full 25 minutes three different times in the UFC. Jandiroba has never entered deep waters in the UFC, which will surely not benefit her if the fight reaches that point.
Tom Aspinall in round 1
Saturday’s main event features Tom Aspinall defending his heavyweight title against No. 1-ranked Ciryl Gane. Aspinall enters as a heavy -425 favorite, but a better price can be found by taking him to win inside the first round.
Outside of the freak injury against Curtis Blaydes, Aspinall has dismantled everyone he’s faced. All eight of his UFC victories have come by finish, with seven of them coming in the opening round.
He hits like a truck and can just as easily snatch a submission.
It’s no wonder Jon Jones wants no part of him. At this point, there might not be a single active heavyweight capable of beating Aspinall, and this could be the start of a lengthy title reign.
Speaking of Jones, he handed Gane his most recent loss by submitting him just two minutes into the first round with a guillotine choke. It wouldn’t be surprising if Aspinall uses a similar blueprint to secure yet another first-round finish and reinforce his claim as the best heavyweight on the planet.
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