UFC 316 Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

Julianna Pena takes on Kayla Harrison for the women’s bantamweight title in the co-main event of UFC 316. While the stars are aligning for Harrison to emerge as champion and begin her run as the face of women’s MMA, Pena won’t go down without a fight.

Harrison is a -700 favorite in the UFC odds, with Pena listed as a +475 underdog. Check out my best Pena vs. Harrison predictions and free betting picks from Prudential Center in New Jersey.

Pena vs Harrison prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Harrison moneyline (-650 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Harrison by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-145 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Just two fights into her UFC career, Kayla Harrison is on the verge of her coronation as the face of the next generation of women’s MMA. It's fitting that she faces Julianna Pena, who was the last to fight Amanda Nunes before her retirement and will likely serve as another footnote in the rise of a future great.

While Pena is an established veteran and former champion, Harrison looks unstoppable in her current form.

Harrison gives off Ronda Rousey vibes with her judo pedigree and savage fighting style, where she imposes her size with devastating takedowns and punishing ground-and-pound. She’s competed as high as featherweight during her PFL run and has looked nothing short of championship-level in her two UFC wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira.

While her striking still comes across as clubbing and rudimentary, Harrison rarely needs it as she excels at closing the distance and using trips and throws to take the fight where she wants it.

Pena has faced some of the best fighters in women’s MMA history, but her biggest liability remains: she struggles to defend takedowns. With just a 23% takedown defense rate, she enters this fight against a relentless grappler who can easily exploit that weakness.

Pena’s best chance lies in keeping the fight standing, using her three-inch reach advantage to jab and leg kick at range. If she can’t keep Harrison at bay, she may find herself reliving the nightmare of her brutal 2022 rematch with Nunes.

From what we've seen so far, this is a bad stylistic matchup for Pena. Narrowly outpointing Raquel Pennington isn't enough preparation for someone like Harrison. The likely scenario is that Harrison explodes forward, eats a few shots, bullies Pena against the cage, and lands multiple takedowns until Pena is broken down. It may not even take more than one takedown to swing the fight out of Pena's control.

Expect a dominant, title-winning performance from Harrison.

Best bet analysis
It seems inevitable that this fight will hit the ground, and when it does, the end should come shortly after. Harrison can either pound out a TKO or force a submission, depending on how Pena reacts under pressure. Pena has been taken down 10 times in her last five fights, including six in the rematch with Nunes, where she couldn’t handle the physicality or relentless pressure.

Expect more of the same here, but with a finish likely this time. My best bet is Harrison to win by knockout or submission.

Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison odds

Method of Victory	Pena	Harrison
To win outright	+475	-700
To win by KO/TKO	+2000	+280
To win by decision	+1450	+180
To win by submission	+1250	+160
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-7.

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Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison tale of the tape

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