UFC 316 Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Predictions, Picks & Odds

Kevin Holland made the wise decision to return to the 170-pound division, and our expert UFC predictions expect his decision to pay off against Vicente Luque.

Tony Sartori - Contributor at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Jun 7, 2025 • 17:33 ET • 4 min read
Kevin Holland UFC
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The UFC returns to New Jersey as the Prudential Center hosts Saturday's UFC 316. Kicking off the main card is a welterweight bout between No. 14-ranked contender Vicente Luque and unranked Kevin Holland.

Current UFC odds list Holland as a sizable favorite at -275 via BET99, while Luque is priced at +220. Here are my free UFC 316: Luque vs. Holland UFC picks for Saturday’s event in Newark.

Luque vs Holland prediction and best bet

Fight analysis
Kevin Holland made the smart decision to return to the 170-pound division in his most recent fight against Gunnar Nelson. Holland won by unanimous decision after a two-fight skid at 185 pounds and is a more effective fighter at the lower weight class.

He is 3-2 over his past five welterweight bouts, with the two losses coming against Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena. Page is a legitimate title contender, while Della Maddalena is currently the champion after dethroning Belal Muhammad at UFC 315.

In fact, Holland took Della Maddalena to a split decision, albeit a controversial one. Regardless, it was a competitive fight, and with all due respect to Luque, he represents a notable step down in competition from Page and Della Maddalena.

When facing elite welterweights, Luque has often come up short. He’s lost to Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal, and Joaquin Buckley, with the latter two losses coming inside the distance.

Best bet analysis
When you get a Holland fight, chaos is typically around the corner. His fight IQ is sometimes questionable, but his power and submission skills are not.

That combination leads to tremendously entertaining performances, which is why 10 of his past 13 fights have ended inside the distance. Meanwhile, Luque is vulnerable both by knockout and submission.

Both Buckley and Neal knocked him out, and he also owns a pair of submission losses.

Luque has been in some absolute wars, but the long-term damage is starting to catch up to him. He even suffered a brain hemorrhage following the Neal fight.

Being tasked with facing a larger, more powerful opponent like Holland is a tall order for someone who has endured that level of punishment.

Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland odds

Bet99
Method of Victory Luque Holland
To win outright +190 -245
To win by KO/TKO +750 +135
To win by decision +625 +380
To win by submission +750 +475
Draw +2500 +2500

Odds as of 6-7.

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Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland tale of the tape

Luque   Holland
33 Age 32
5-foot-11 Height 6-foot-3
Welterweight Weight Class Welterweight
75 inches Reach 81 inches
23-10-1 Record 27-13
11 Wins by KO 13
9 Wins by submission 9

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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