The UFC returns to New Jersey as the Prudential Center hosts Saturday's UFC 316. Kicking off the main card is a welterweight bout between No. 14-ranked contender Vicente Luque and unranked Kevin Holland.
Current UFC odds list Holland as a sizable favorite at -275 via BET99, while Luque is priced at +220. Here are my free UFC 316: Luque vs. Holland UFC picks for Saturday’s event in Newark.
Luque vs Holland prediction and best bet
- My fight prediction: Holland moneyline (-245 at BET99)
- My best bet: Holland by KO/TKO/DQ or submission (-125 at BET99)
Fight analysis
Kevin Holland made the smart decision to return to the 170-pound division in his most recent fight against Gunnar Nelson. Holland won by unanimous decision after a two-fight skid at 185 pounds and is a more effective fighter at the lower weight class.
He is 3-2 over his past five welterweight bouts, with the two losses coming against Michael Page and Jack Della Maddalena. Page is a legitimate title contender, while Della Maddalena is currently the champion after dethroning Belal Muhammad at UFC 315.
In fact, Holland took Della Maddalena to a split decision, albeit a controversial one. Regardless, it was a competitive fight, and with all due respect to Luque, he represents a notable step down in competition from Page and Della Maddalena.
When facing elite welterweights, Luque has often come up short. He’s lost to Belal Muhammad, Geoff Neal, and Joaquin Buckley, with the latter two losses coming inside the distance.
Best bet analysis
When you get a Holland fight, chaos is typically around the corner. His fight IQ is sometimes questionable, but his power and submission skills are not.
That combination leads to tremendously entertaining performances, which is why 10 of his past 13 fights have ended inside the distance. Meanwhile, Luque is vulnerable both by knockout and submission.
Both Buckley and Neal knocked him out, and he also owns a pair of submission losses.
Luque has been in some absolute wars, but the long-term damage is starting to catch up to him. He even suffered a brain hemorrhage following the Neal fight.
Being tasked with facing a larger, more powerful opponent like Holland is a tall order for someone who has endured that level of punishment.
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Luque | Holland |
| To win outright | +190 | -245 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +750 | +135 |
| To win by decision | +625 | +380 |
| To win by submission | +750 | +475 |
| Draw | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds as of 6-7.
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Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland tale of the tape
| Luque | Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 6-foot-3 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 75 inches | Reach | 81 inches |
| 23-10-1 | Record | 27-13 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 9 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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