UFC 316 Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Predictions, Picks & Odds

Joe Pyfer continues his climb up the middleweight ranks as he faces longtime UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 316. With Pyfer gaining steam as one of the division’s most dangerous up-and-comers, it’s Gastelum who needs to turn back the clock to beat back the rising star and potentially save his UFC career.

UFC odds have Pyfer favored at -400, with Gastelum a +290 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 316: Pyfer vs. Gastelum predictions from the Prudential Center in New Jersey.

Gastelum vs Pyfer prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pyfer moneyline (-425 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Last-minute health concerns postponed this fight three months ago, but little has changed since then to suggest a different outcome. Given how unseriously Gastelum seems to be taking his career, that extra time was likely squandered. He now enters this fight with his UFC career potentially on the line. Despite their flaws, this could still turn into a fan-friendly scrap. 

Pyfer is a heavy-handed striker with solid BJJ and decent takedowns. While he may not evolve much more from what we’ve seen, he’s undeniably entertaining and constantly presses forward, even if his cardio and fight IQ raise concerns. He faltered when stepping up against Jack Hermansson but bounced back by demolishing the chinny Marc-André Barriault. A win over a recognizable veteran like Gastelum would boost his stock and move him closer to a marquee matchup.

Gastelum, meanwhile, is not as overmatched as some might believe, but that's only if he shows up focused and well-conditioned, which remains an open question. His natural talent once made him a top-tier prospect, but a lack of discipline has led to a string of underwhelming performances. His drop to welterweight came too late, and recent losses to Sean Brady and a blown weight cut before narrowly edging out Daniel Rodriguez have only further dimmed his star. If he doesn’t win here, this could be the end of his UFC run.

There are certainly paths for Gastelum to win. He has more experience, better lateral movement, and sharper striking in exchanges. But bullying Pyfer will be difficult when the bigger man can push him back just as easily with power shots.

Pyfer will enjoy a five-inch height advantage, a four-inch reach advantage, and also boasts superior takedown accuracy at 41% compared to Gastelum’s 34%.

If Gastelum shows up with a complete, focused performance, he could turn the tide. But banking on a perfect fight from him at this stage is a fool’s gamble. Pyfer is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Gastelum has taken considerable punishment against some of the middleweight division’s best strikers and doesn’t seem to be fazed by them. His chin is made of otherworldly metal, and if notable strikers like Jared Cannonier and a prime Israel Adesanya couldn’t get him out of the octagon with the amount of leather they landed, I have doubts Pyfer can do it. My best bet is that these two have a pitched fight that goes over 2.5 rounds.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer odds

Method of Victory	Gastelum	Pyfer
To win outright	+295	-425
To win by KO/TKO	+850	+240
To win by decision	+700	+145
To win by submission	+2250	+365
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-7.

Bet on the UFC at BET99!

One of Canada's best sportsbooks for UFC betting, join BET99 and get up to $1,000 bonus bets back if your first bet doesn’t win when using our BET99 promo code COVERSBONUS!

Sign Up Now at 

^{*Not available in Ontario}

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic