UFC 316 Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

A high-stakes rematch for the bantamweight title headlines UFC 316 as Sean O’Malley looks to avenge his title loss to Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili dominated O’Malley to become champ nine months ago, and there’s nothing to suggest we'll get a different outcome tonight. 

Dvalishvili is a healthy -280 favorite in the UFC odds, with O'Malley coming back at +225. Here are my best UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley predictions from Prudential Center in New Jersey.

Dvalishvili vs O’Malley prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline (-280 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-180 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Has nine months been enough time for O’Malley to have patched up the holes Dvalishvili exposed in his dominant UFC 306 win, with no fights in the interim? That’s the only question that matters in this main event rematch, because we know O’Malley is a top-tier bantamweight and will likely beat everyone else in the division, but it was clear to everyone who watched that Dvalishvili dominated him from bell to bell last September.

In that fight, Dvalishvili nearly outlanded O’Malley two-to-one in strikes and scored six takedowns while racking up 10 minutes of control time. There wasn’t any moment in the fight where O’Malley had any sustained success, and he simply couldn’t keep up with Dvalishvili’s relentless pace. After the fight, O’Malley underwent hip surgery to address an injury he suffered before the fight, which explains why he’s been on the shelf since then.

Dvalishvili worked over Umar Nurmagomedov in his last fight, and he has the looks of a fighter who can presumably go on a long title run thanks to his suffocating grappling and impeccable conditioning. His striking has improved in recent fights, and he simply tires out his opponents by forcing them to defend takedown attempts. While he won’t sell the farm and engage O’Malley in a fistfight, the champ is defending 56% of significant strikes and doesn’t make the kind of mistakes with his offense that could put him in a precarious position.

Maybe O’Malley can be a bit more explosive or fend off a few more takedowns with his surgically repaired hip, but this is a tough fight for him to take after that kind of operation. Credit to O’Malley for wanting to get his title back, but there was not much good to be found in his last shot at Dvalishvili, despite some generous scorecards that suggested the fight would be close.

O’Malley has a puncher’s chance, but that’s about it. We’ve seen Dvalishvili shut him down and beat him at his own game when it came to the striking. It’ll require one of the greatest single-fight turnarounds in combat sports history for O’Malley to pull this off, and I don’t think he’s going to find it rushing headfirst into this one. Dvalishvili is the pick.

Best bet analysis
Dvalishvili has gone the distance in 10 of his last 11 fights and relies on conditioning and grappling to slow opponents to a crawl. O’Malley can’t get off his best shots while being forced backward, and even if he does have an extra gear now with his surgically repaired hip, his 61% takedown defense is likely to drop again in a rematch that mirrors the first fight. My best bet is Dvalishvili to retain his title by decision.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley odds

Method of Victory	Dvalishvili	O’Malley
To win outright	-280	+225
To win by KO/TKO	+1050	+400
To win by decision	-180	+575
To win by submission	+1400	+2900
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 6-7.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley tale of the tape

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