The Bell Centre in Montreal hosts the UFC 315 pay-per-view on Saturday evening. Headlining the main card is a fight for the welterweight title between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena.
Below, I break down that fight and two others in my UFC parlay picks and predictions for Saturday, May 10.
Best UFC 315 parlay picks
Benoit Saint-Denis moneyline
Natalia Silva moneyline
Belal Muhammad moneyline
Benoit Saint-Denis moneyline
There is certainly no such thing as a “free leg” in any parlay, especially not in MMA. However, this leg is as close as it gets, with Benoit Saint-Denis sitting at -1350 at DraftKings.
This leg provides a slight boost to the UFC odds, which is worth the risk relative to his 93.1% implied win probability. Kyle Prepolec makes his UFC debut on short notice after Joel Alvarez was forced to withdraw, and he is getting thrown to a wolf in the form of BSD.
Saint-Denis has won five of his past seven fights in the UFC, with his only two losses coming to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Both fighters have recently competed in title bouts against Islam Makhachev, while Prepolec has bounced around the regional circuit since getting cut from the UFC following two unanimous decision losses.
There are levels to this game, and these two are on astronomically different ones.
Natalia Silva moneyline
Later on the main card, No. 1-ranked contender Alexa Grasso puts her ranking on the line against the surging No. 5-ranked Natalia Silva. Entering this bout in tremendous form, Silva currently rides a 12-fight win streak, with six of those victories coming since her UFC debut in 2022.
She’s beaten some impressive names during this stretch, including Jasmine Jasudavicius, Viviane Araujo, and Jessica Andrade. This fight figures to stay on the feet, which benefits Silva and helps explain the current odds.
Since joining the UFC, Silva has landed more strikes per minute than Grasso, and at a higher accuracy. Her defense has also been stronger, as she has absorbed fewer strikes per minute.
Belal Muhammad moneyline
The main event of UFC 315 features Belal Muhammad defending the welterweight championship against Jack Della Maddalena. The line is moving toward JDM, and now is the time to buy low on Muhammad.
This fight is a massive step up for Della Maddalena, who does not have a single win over any welterweight ranked in the top seven of the division. Meanwhile, Muhammad has cleared out nearly the entire top of the division outside of Shavkat Rakhmonov.
Muhammad possesses a clear edge on the mat, but the striking matchup is closer than most might estimate. He picked apart Gilbert Burns on the feet en route to a landslide unanimous decision victory and also knocked out Sean Brady, proving that Muhammad can hold his own in striking exchanges with some of the best in the division.
There are simply more paths to victory for Muhammad in this fight.
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