UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes Odds, Picks & Predictions

Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes is a featherweight fight taking place on tonight's UFC 306 undercard and is one of our featured events for UFC betting on Saturday night. 

There’s bad blood between these two elite featherweights, and only one will be left standing in this high-stakes clash that could establish a new contender in the division.

UFC odds have Lopes as the favorite at -190 while former title challenger Ortega is a +160 underdog. Here are my best free UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes predictions from The Sphere in Las Vegas on September 14.

Ortega vs Lopes prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Lopes moneyline (-190 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Lopes by decision (+210 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Brian Ortega wasn’t ready to fight Diego Lopes at UFC 303, and he didn’t seem too upset when the bout fell through. However, the UFC really wants this fight to happen, and they’re set to settle things in the octagon on Saturday in what should be a competitive matchup.

There’s been a lot of hype around Lopes, who has won four in a row after giving Movsar Evloev all he could handle in a short-notice defeat. Lopes had less than a few hours to prepare for his fight with Dan Ige at UFC 305, where Ige miraculously appeared to save that spot on the card.

Lopes entered the UFC as a renowned BJJ specialist, but his striking has carried him during his recent winning streak. It’s hard to say if he’ll be better than Ortega in the technical striking department, but he does seem to have heavier hands. While Ortega is no slouch in stand-up, he tends to fall behind in prolonged striking exchanges and often resorts to his grappling to even things up and compensate for lost time.

With Lopes’ excellent grappling also in play, I don’t see Ortega being able to take the fight to the ground, especially if he’s getting worked over in the stand-up, like in his most recent fight against Yair Rodriguez. Additionally, Ortega often gets significantly out-landed in striking, and Lopes will be able to apply pressure, denying Ortega the opportunity to make up for any scoring deficits on the mat.

Conditioning might also be a factor in this bout. Ortega has reportedly considered moving up to lightweight and seems to be overstaying his welcome at featherweight. The UFC 305 fight was supposed to take place one division higher, and now Ortega will need to cut back down to featherweight again.

All signs point to Lopes being the fresher, more effective fighter, poised to score the biggest win of his career.

Best best analysis

Though Ortega secured a win against Rodriguez in his last fight, it reinforced the notion that he tends to take a lot of damage, whether in victory or defeat. However, his indomitable will and tough chin have never failed him.

These two will likely test their grappling skills, especially as Ortega may turn to his ground game if he starts losing the stand-up battle. Lopes is developing his striking and possesses good power, but seeing Ortega endure punishing beatings from heavy hitters like Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway, I don’t think Lopes will be able to stop him.

Lopes will likely do enough to win on the scorecards.

Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes odds

Method of Victory	Ortega	Lopes
To win outright	+160	-190
To win by KO/TKO	+675	+285
To win by decision	+400	+210
To win by submission	+850	+475
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 9-14.

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Brian Ortega vs Diego Lopes tale of the tape

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