UFC 302 Brown vs Zaleski dos Santos Odds, Picks, and Predictions: 'Rude Boy' Stands Tall in Welterweight Bout

Tonight's UFC 302 main card in New Jersey features a welterweight bout between Randy Brown and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. 

UFC odds have Brown as a sizable betting favorite at -175, while Zaleski dos Santos returns at +150. Here are my free betting picks for Brown vs. Zaleski dos Santos on June 1.

Brown vs Zaleski dos Santos prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Brown moneyline (-175 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Brown by decision (+180 at BET99)

Fight analysis

The winner of this fight should enter the Top 15 in the welterweight rankings with a victory. Both guys enter this scrap in good form, with Brown prevailing in six of his last seven fights.

His lone loss over that stretch was to Jack Della Maddalena, the current No. 5-ranked contender in the division. The knock on Brown is that he typically takes care of business in fights that he’s “supposed to win”, but whenever he has gotten a crack at a top guy, he has fallen short.

With that said, this fight falls into that first category, as the favorite is nearing 2/1 odds on the moneyline.

That is not a knock on Zaleski dos Santos, who is a good fighter in his own right and even possesses wins against the likes of Benoit Saint Denis and Sean Strickland. However, the 37-year-old Brazilian is nearly four years younger than Brown.

That is a tough ask for an underdog in a fight that is projected to go the distance. Furthermore, this fight is likely to stay on the feet, which gives the bigger Brown a big advantage since he is four inches taller and boasts a five-inch reach advantage.

Best best analysis

Instead of laying -175 on Brown’s moneyline, there is more value in backing him to win by decision at +180. Oddsmakers are expecting this fight to go the distance, with the “Over 2.5 Rounds” prop listed at -145.

Markets also suggest that Brown by decision is his most likely path to victory, given that his knockout prop is listed at +325 and his submission prop is listed at +700. These price discrepancies make sense given that it is nearly impossible to finish Zaleski dos Santos.

Brown has been knocked out just once through 32 professional fights, while Zaleski dos Santos has also never been submitted through 14 bouts in the UFC. 

For a matchup that is likely to stay on the feet for the majority of the bout, I expect 'Rude Boy' to win this one by way of the judges' scorecards. 

Brown vs Zaleski dos Santos odds

Method of Victory	Brown	Zaleski dos Santos
To win outright	-175	+150
To win by KO/TKO	+320	+475
To win by points	+175	+365
To win by submission	+700	+1,150
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-31.

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Brown vs Zaleski dos Santos tale of the tape

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