UFC 300 Oliveira vs Tsarukyan Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Do Bronx Goes Down

With, unofficially, a match with lightweight champ Islam Makhachev waiting in the wings, this bout has the makings of a tense affair. However, as impressive as Oliveira's resume is, Tsarukyan's rise is likely continuing as he can counter "Do Bronx."

Apr 13, 2024 • 08:07 ET • 4 min read
Arman Tsarukyan UFC 300
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan is a lightweight clash serving as a featured attraction on the undercard of UFC 300, taking place tonight, April 13, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

This match is an unofficial title eliminator, and it’s Tsarukyan’s turn to get another shot against champ Islam Makhachev.

UFC odds have Tsarukyan as a -225 favorite, and Oliveira is a +175 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Tsarukyan vs. Oliveira at UFC 300.

Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan fight odds

Method of Victory Oliveira Tsarukyan
To win outright +170 -215
To win by KO/TKO +675 +135
To win by points +750 +295
To win by submission +475 +950
Draw +2,500 +2,500

Odds courtesy of BET99 on 4-13-2024.

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Oliveira vs Tsarukyan picks

Fight prediction: Tsarukyan ML

As much as fans want to see Oliveira get his rematch against Makhachev, this is a troubling matchup for the Brazilian underdog specialist. Tsarukyan might not be as good as Makhachev on the ground, but he’s not too far behind, and he’s a better striker. Historically, Oliveira struggles against well-rounded opponents who can challenge him on the ground and possess good power, and he’s had to survive offensive onslaughts and endure tremendous punishment to sneak in a fight-changing strike or submission attempt.

Tsarukyan thrives because he has a disciplined, efficient style. He comes forward and varies his attack so he isn’t hard to read and does so without making any sloppy movements or the kind of mistakes where he gets in his way and hinders his offense. His strikes are crisp, he has clean takedowns, and he can make any prolonged visit on the mat very taxing for his opponent. This is bad news for Oliveira because he makes his big moments out of opponents being fearful of his ground game or underestimating his striking, none of which we’ve come to expect from Tsarukyan.

Oliveira hunts for submissions, and one of his methods of doing that is being comfortable on his back and luring foes in for a shock submission. He also can play possum, lulling his opponents into a false sense of security so he can lock in something nasty, and that often works when he’s facing people who lack submission defense. If Tsarukyan goes to the ground with him, he has good scrambles and submissions that take this strategy off the table.

Sentimentality is a powerful thing, but there’s little value in betting based on it. Tsarukyan is on a roll, has a favorable style match-up against Oliveira, and isn’t going to leave the door open for Oliveira by making mistakes like Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje did. All signs point to a big win for Tsarukyan, and I’m inclined to agree.

Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan moneyline (-225 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Tsarukyan by KO

Oliveira’s resilience is his greatest attribute, and he relies on it quite a bit as he gets hurt and put on his back more often than not. Those moments of high alert end up becoming areas of opportunity for him, staying calmer than his aggressor and allowing him to capitalize when they make a mistake in their fervor. That didn’t work against Makhachev mainly because Makhachev was mindful of Oliveira’s ground game, and Tsarukyan is from the same mold.

We’ve seen Tsarukyan turn into a complete fighter. His striking is on point and his wrestling is just as effective. Even when he has had an off night, such as his losses to Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot, he’s never out of the fight and tends to lose by the thinnest of margins. He’s careful, intelligent, has plenty of tools, and won’t have as much wear as Oliveira has picked up the last few years.

When this fight starts, it will become clear that Tsarukyan is the stronger of the two because he’ll land a big shot that might buckle or knock Oliveira down. Once Oliveira hits the mat, he’ll come at him and avoid a potential guillotine attempt, and Oliveira will realize this won’t be someone his tricks work on.

I expect “Do Bronx” to survive that first scare, but he’ll pick up the striking pace only to get outworked. The next major offensive moment will likely be the last, as Tsarukyan will bust Oliveira up and potentially end things on the ground, completing his ascension to the top of the lightweight mountain with a TKO of the former champion.

Pick: Arman Tsarukyan by knockout (+135 at Bet99)

Oliveira vs Tsarukyan betting preview

Tsarukyan has been on the fringes of the division for some time, and he’s worked his way into the top tier thanks to his excellent performances. He has wins over Matt Frevola, Damir Ismagulov, and Joaquim Silva, and is coming off a first-round knockout of Beneil Dariush last December. Even in defeats against Makhachev and Gamrot, he wasn’t completely outclassed. Tsarukyan lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute and only absorbs 1.91 in return, and he’s scoring 3.40 takedowns per fight at 36% accuracy. Four of his last five wins have come by knockout, and he’s spending an average of 12 minutes and 22 seconds in the octagon per fight.

Ex-champ Oliveira will go down as one of the most decorated lightweights in UFC history. “Do Bronx” has been in the thick of the title picture in pursuit of a rematch with Makhachev. It has been the only blemish on his record since 2017, and he has wins over Dariush, Gaethje, Poirier, Chandler, Tony Ferguson, and Jim Miller in that time frame.

A vicious operator, Oliveira lands 3.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.19 in return, and he’s extraordinarily dangerous on the ground where he lands 2.32 takedowns per fight and attempts 2.7 submissions in the same time frame. His fights tend to be short, lasting six minutes and fifty-two seconds, and he is the current record holder in the UFC for most finishes (20) and most submission wins (16).

Oliveira is fighting a surging contender seven years younger than him who has tight defense and solid technique. While he’s looking no worse for wear in his recent performances, Oliveira tends to fare better against strikers. Tsarukyan’s takedown game has been impressive lately, scoring 11 takedowns in his last three fights.

Charles Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan tale of the tape

Oliveira   Tsarukyan
5-foot-10 Height 5-foot-7
154 lbs Weight 155.5 lbs
74 inches Reach 72.5 inches
34-9-0 (10 KO, 1 NC) Record 21-3-0 (9 KO)

Not intended for use in MA.
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