UFC 283 Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Picks and Predictions: Deus Da Guerra Finds a Way

The end to a trilogy locks Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno in the octagon, as the Flyweight belt is once again up for grabs. With both having defeated each other once, find out who will earn the ultimate bragging rights in our UFC 283 betting picks.

Last Updated: Jan 21, 2023 7:44 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Deiveson Figueiredo UFC
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno is a flyweight title fight scheduled for five rounds and is the co-main event of UFC 283 from the Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

The three epic bouts between Figuereido and Moreno haven’t sated the appetite of fight fans, and this fourth clash looks to be the final collision between these perfectly paired rivals.

This fight is a dead heat, with UFC betting odds forecasting it as a true 50/50 fight. Both Figueiredo and Moreno are listed at -113 on the moneyline.

Here are our picks and predictions for Figueiredo vs. Moreno at UFC 283 from Brazil.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno fight odds

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno method of victory odds

Method of Victory Deiveson Figueiredo Brandon Moreno
To win by KO/TKO +430 +600
To win by Points +250 +210
To win by Submission +1,100 +550
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on January 17, 2022.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno betting preview

The Figueredo/Moreno trilogy is the best of the modern UFC era. These two will be forever tied to one another, but a combination of pride and the flyweight rankings see them collide once more. Overall, these two are 1-1-1 after Figueiredo won their last bout by decision at UFC 270. 

That was the last time Figuereido stepped into the octagon, battling a nagging hand injury and switching trainers. The champ has been the aggressor throughout the trilogy, stalking and landing the more impactful shots while standing his ground against the resourceful Moreno. The victory at UFC 270 was a nailbiter, but it was his strongest performance in their trilogy. 

“Deus Da Guerra” is tied for the division record in finishes and is a force of nature. He lands 3.27 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, with 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes at 41% accuracy and an average fight time of 11:41. 17 of his 28 wins have been finishes and it is a small miracle that he can continue to make flyweight.

Moreno took the cleanest win of their series at UFC 263 when he submitted Figueiredo after dominating him in the standup. The Mexican didn’t look any worse for wear when he once again beat Kai Kara-France by a third-round KO at UFC 277. What he doesn’t have in physical size or power, he makes up with tenacity and an ungodly ability to absorb punishment.

He’ll need every bit of it going into what should be another war. He averages 3.58 significant strikes per minute at 39% accuracy and 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes at 44% accuracy. Moreno makes up for his lack of brute strength by maintaining an excellent chin and tremendous grappling and submission technique.

Head-to-head, Moreno has advantages in overall strikes thrown and landed, as well as successful takedowns in the series. Those margins are slim ones, and as evident from the third fight, Figueiredo doesn’t need as many shots to do big damage.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno tale of the tape

Deiveson Figueiredo   Brandon Moreno
35 Age 29
5-foot-5 Height 5-foot-7
125 lbs Weight 125 lbs
68 inches Reach 70 inches
21-2-1 (9 KO) Record 20-6-2 (4 KO)

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Four fights may not be enough to determine who is truly better, but we’ve seen enough to suggest Figueiredo has the edge. His power and massive size tip the scales in his favor, though Moreno is willing to go through some rough waters. That willingness led to Moreno absorbing a lot of punishment and three critical knockdowns, which led him to lose the last fight. 

This should be another close one that follows the same script as the previous three bouts. We feel that Figueiredo will again prevail by the narrowest of margins, though it’s far from a lock.

Prediction: Figueiredo moneyline (-113 at DraftKings)

If Figueiredo can prevent Moreno from getting off to a fast start as he did in the second fight, his heavier shots will make all the difference in the later rounds. We get the sense that Figueiredo figured Moreno out and knows that his looming opponent must open him up with a lot of activity. 

Moreno has managed to take a hellacious amount of punishment and still be right on Figueiredo until the final bell. That being said, Figueiredo will prevail by decision for a +250 payout. 

Pick: Figueiredo by points (+250 at DraftKings)

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