US Open 2024 Men's Tennis Odds, Favorites, & Sleepers: Can Djokovic's Reign be Stopped?

As Novak Djokovic looks to defend his crown, our US Open odds and tennis betting preview break down the field, who to target, and who to avoid in Queens.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Aug 23, 2024 • 12:57 ET • 4 min read
Novak Djokovic US Open
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Defending champion Novak Djokovic seeks a record 25th Grand Slam title and is one of the US Open odds favorites to successfully defend a Grand Slam title for a record 10th time.

No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner and 2022 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz may have a say in the matter, as they’ve combined to win the three other Slams this season.

Can Djokovic replace Margaret Court on the all-time Grand Slam title list? Find out with our 2024 US Open Men’s Singles betting preview. 

US Open 2024 men's singles odds

Player DraftKings
Carlos Alcaraz +200
Novak Djokovic +240
Jannik Sinner +370
Alexander Zverev +1,000
Daniil Medvedev +1,600
Andrey Rublev +4,000
Stefanos Tsitsipas +8,000
Matteo Berrettini +8,000
Frances Tiafoe +8,000
Ben Shelton +8,000

Odds as of 8-23-2024.

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US Open 2024 Men's favorites

Who's hot

Novak Djokovic (+225 at BetMGM)
No. 2 seed Novak Djokovic is the defending champ and seeks to successfully defend a Grand Slam title for a record 10th time. The reigning gold medalist and four-time US Open champion has a winnable draw.

Montreal champion Alexei Popyrin could be his third-round opponent, with a potential fourth-round rematch of last year’s semifinal against Frances Tiafoe or Ben Shelton. Joker would likely meet either Andrey Rublev or Jiri Lehecka in the quarters and a popcorn semifinal awaits against Alexander Zverev.

Jannik Sinner (+350 at BetRivers)
No. 1 Jannik Sinner is 28-2 on the cement with three of this season’s largest hard-court trophies on his mantle (Australian Open, Miami, Cincinnati) but a positive PEDS test from April is the talk of the tennis world.  

Sinner dodged a lengthy suspension, but he hasn’t escaped the scrutiny. He has all the tools and has won the second-most hardcourt tiebreakers (eight), but his draw is heinous; Tommy Paul or Arthur Fils could end his run as soon as the fourth round. No. 5 Daniil Medvedev potentially awaits in the quarters, with Carlos Alcaraz a possibility in the semis.

Who's not

Carlos Alcaraz (+200 at BetMGM)
Reigning silver medalist and 2022 US Open champ Carlos Alcaraz is 13-3 on the asphalt with titles at Indian Wells along with an incredible European Double run (French Open, Wimbledon) that ended with a heartbreaking loss to Djokovic at the Paris Games.

Carlito appeared gassed during his second-round loss to Gael Monfils at Cincinnati, but he has a good draw with a real chance to avenge his Olympic games loss to Joker. Alcaraz will need to find all the energy he has left in the tank as he’ll likely see either big-hitting Zhizhen Zhang or Jack Draper in round three followed by Washington champ Sebi Korda in the fourth. 
 
Daniil Medvedev (+1,400 at BetMGM)
Last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev has dropped both post-Olympic matches, but he‘s another former US Open champion (2021) with an 18-6 mark on the hard courts this season.

Medvedev is consistent from both wings with a solid return game and one of the best serves on tour. He does have a relatively routine run to the quarters, but he’ll need to beat Sinner to advance, and while Med did defeat him at Wimbledon, the Russian is only 1-5 head-to-head across their past six matches. 

US Open 2024 Men's sleepers

Players to watch

Alexander Zverev (+1,400 at Caesars)
Zverev is a 2020 finalist coming off a solid summer where he reached the quarters in Montreal, the semis in Cincinnati, and boasts the third-most hardcourt victories (23) in 2024.

The big-serving German boasts a Top 30 return game with solid groundies and one of the best two-handed backhands in the game. Zverev ranks fourth on the cement this season in winners (482) and has what appears to be a routine draw to the quarters where he could face either Taylor Fritz or Ugo Humbert with a potential semifinal bout with Djokovic. 

Andrey Rublev (+5,000 at Caesars)
Rublev has had a successful 2024 hardcourt season, with 23 wins including a nice run to the Montreal Open finals.

Rublev is a big-serving Russian with a Top 15 return game and has smacked the second-most hardcourt winners (519) on the circuit. He’s done better with his on-court demeanor this summer.

Still, his new-found on-court maturity could face an early test as he could see big-hitting Czech Jiri Lehecka in round three, maybe Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth, with Djokovic awaiting in the quarters. 

Ugo Humbert (+30,000 at BetMGM)
No. 17 Humbert got hot on the cement early with a pair of hard-court titles (Marseille, Dubai) this season. He crumbled a bit after that and is coming off two heartbreaking third-set tiebreak losses at Montreal and Cincinnati.

Humbert cracks the ninth-most winners on the asphalt with the 11th-best return rating in the game. His go-big or go-home playing style is dangerous and should lead him to a fourth-round encounter with Taylor Fritz. From there, he could meet Zverev, and his 1-1 career mark against the German should give Humbert some confidence in that potential matchup. 


US Open long shots to avoid

Frances Tiafoe (+7,500 at BetRivers)
Cincinnati finalist Tiafoe has reached at least the quarters in each of his last two US Opens, but his draw is difficult, and it will be a tall order for him to play into the second week.

This crowd favorite may sneak through the first two rounds, but he’s 0-2 against potential third-round opponent Ben Shelton. Then, it gets dicey for the American; Tiafoe would likely meet Djokovic in the fourth round, and he’s 0-2 lifetime against the GOAT. 

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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