Canadian sensation Victoria Mboko has taken down three former Grand Slam champions en route to her first WTA 1000 final.
Naomi Osaka has lost only one set in Montreal, but my Mboko vs. Osaka predictions are backing the hometown hero to pull off the upset.
Join me as I break this down with a tennis pick for the National Bank Open final between Mboko and Osaka on Thursday, August 7.
Mboko vs Osaka prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Mboka moneyline (+150 at bet365)
- My best bet: Over 21.5 games (-120 at SportsInteraction)
Match analysis
Canadian breakout star Victoria Mboko is one win away from her first WTA 1000 title at the 2025 National Bank Open.
I’m backing the 18-year-old after her thrilling comeback over former Wimbledon champ Elena Rybakina on Wednesday.
Her straight-set wins over Grand Slam titlists Sofia Kenin and Coco Gauff, paired with an 82% win rate (42-9) on hard courts over the last year boost my confidence against four-time major winner Naomi Osaka.
Osaka has dropped just one set in six matches behind a lethal serve. Her first-serve percentage dipping with each match could mean fatigue, which could be problematic against Mboko’s grind-it-out game, and 46.5% receiving points won this season on cement.
Osaka’s the favorite, but Mboko’s home-crowd boost, resilience, and overall fitness should get her over the line.
Best best analysis
Nerves will abound tonight.
Osaka may have more big hardware on her mantle, but she’s playing her biggest match since March 2022, and her long history of nerves getting the best of her could factor into the equation.
The former World No. 1 might come out blazing. Osaka is hot, but Mboko has proven in Montreal that she responds well to adversity, and a bad opening set won’t derail her.
My prediction for tonight's match is Mboko to win. Her resilience, coupled with Osaka's apparent fatigue, leads me to believe she'll push through.
For the same reason, I'm betting the Over. Even if Mboko drops the first set, her aggressive play style will ensure she continues to attack the fatigued Osaka and send tonight’s match Over the total.
Mboko vs Osaka odds
| Victoria Mboko | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| +140 | Moneyline | -185 |
| +2.5 (-105) | Game spread | -2.5 (-130) |
| Over 21.5 (-125) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Mboko vs Osaka
| Location | IGA Stadium, Montreal, Canada |
| Date | Thursday, 8-7-2025 |
| Time | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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