It wasn’t the cleanest season for Iga Swiatek, who left us doubting her ability to win a fifth French Open title, but a strong showing in Paris has once again brought her to the semifinal stage of this event, where she’ll meet a familiar foe.
Aryna Sabalenka is just 3-8 in her career against Swiatek, but she did win their latest meeting in what was a dominant and clean performance in the Cincinnati semis a year ago. Can she hold true to her World No. 1 ranking and power through the Queen of Roland Garros?
Let’s break it all down in our Sabalenka vs. Swiatek preview and free betting picks for Thursday, June 5.
Sabalenka vs Swiatek prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Swiatek moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Sabalenka Under 4.5 aces (-110 at FanDuel)
Match analysis
It’s been a long and arduous road back to the French Open semis for Swiatek, but she hasn’t made it seem like one.
After going just 6-3 in the run-up to Roland Garros and dropping matches as a heavy favorite against Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins, Swiatek was faced with a tough draw as the No. 5 seed. All she’s done since then is drop one set and move past some quality opponents in each round, including Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina.
The match against Svitolina was particularly impressive, as she was able to withstand some incredible defense from the Ukrainian and a barrage of winners in the second set. Against Rybakina, she was challenged a bit on return before ultimately tidying things up, and now that she’s rounded out her game thanks to the competition, she should be well-positioned once again to take out Sabalenka on dirt.
In their meetings on clay, Swiatek stands at 4-1. She’s now 37-2 at this tournament all time, and just like Rafael Nadal, who had a similar story of dominance here, she was able to shake off some bad form heading into the tournament and use the familiar surroundings to recapture her game.
This was already a tough matchup for Sabalenka, whose power is sapped just a hair on clay, and we’ve seen this materialize in their meetings in Rome and Stuttgart, where the Pole has come away with dominant showings. They were a bit closer on altitude clay, where the ball flies and suits Sabalenka, and that was unsurprisingly the one time the Belarusian was able to take a victory on dirt.
There’s no longer anything separating Swiatek’s level from a year ago and her level now. She should be the favorite here and the expected champion.
Best best analysis
Sabalenka’s serve has been popping in recent rounds, but this is surely where it ends. Swiatek is an incredibly gifted returner who held Rybakina, one of the biggest servers on tour, to just two aces in their fourth-round encounter, and she’s now held her opponents to a total of five aces in her last four matches.
I think this match may go to Swiatek rather quickly, too, which would put Sabalenka’s ace count in an already-dangerous position. She found just two aces the last time they played on clay, which was on one of those aforementioned slower settings, and to make matters even sweeter, the forecast is calling for a bit of moisture and some cooler temperatures, which should help Swiatek get a racquet on even more balls.
Sabalenka vs Swiatek odds
| (1) Aryna Sabalenka | (5) Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| -135 | Moneyline | +110 |
| -1.5 (-115) | Game spread | +1.5 (-120) |
| Over 22.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Swiatek
| Location | Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris, France |
| Date | Thursday, 6-5-2025 |
| Time | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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