French Open Preview and Picks: Nadal Tops Again

The French Open resumes its usual slot in the calendar after the pandemic resulted in an October tournament last year.     

Rafael Nadal & Iga Swiatek are the defending champions and both players lead the betting field. Nadal is in search of an incredible 14th major in Paris, while Swiatek is showing all the signs of a player who can win multiple clay court crowns.

Covers Experts' Tennis Insiders have your complete breakdown of French Open betting, including the tournament conditions and odds to win. We'll look at the favorites, underdogs and live long shots in both draws in our French Open picks and predictions. 

French Open Conditions

Clay courts are significantly affected by the weather, a dry, sunny tournament leads to faster, higher-bouncing courts, while a cooler, damper tournament leads to slower, lower-bouncing courts.

There’s a new tournament schedule this year, with the introduction of night sessions and the cooler air meaning slower conditions than during the day, while a retractable roof in case of rain could see more indoor-like conditions, with the ball travelling faster through the air due to humidity. This is a major with a huge number of variables. 

French Open Men’s Picks

Favorite: Rafael Nadal -109

With a Barcelona title wedged between disappointing performances in Monte Carlo & Madrid, Nadal entered Rome with plenty of questions to answer.

He had a sticky start, edging past Jannik Sinner, and he needed to save match points against Denis Shapovalov, however his confidence rose throughout the week, and he would go on to lift the title, beating Novak Djokovic in three sets.

The high-bouncing properties of Court Phillipe Chatrier have always been Nadal’s favorite, and the warmer and drier the conditions, the better, as it allows his forehand to dictate against almost any opponent.

It’s difficult to advise betting against Nadal, though despite winning two titles, it’s been one of his more unconvincing lead-ups to this major. He’s also only the No.3 seed heading into this event, which means a semi-final versus Djokovic is a possibility. If you’re interested in betting Nadal, I recommend waiting for the draw, he could face one of his most difficult paths to the final in recent memory.

Underdog to Watch: Stefanos Tsitsipas +700

The second-best clay courter of 2021, Tsitsipas is truly at home on this surface. His high-margin, heavy-topspin groundstrokes thrive on the clay, allowing him to dictate points at ease. Weaknesses like his return off the backhand wing and lack of a backhand slice are hidden on the clay, allowing his strengths to come to the fore. 

While a dry, sunny tournament would likely hand him the edge when facing Djokovic, those conditions would not favor him against Nadal, a wise decision would be to wait for the draw and see which half he’ll fall in. If he avoids Nadal, a potential ‘To Reach Final’ prop could have fantastic value.

Live Longshot: Casper Ruud +5,000

Ruud’s game is completely tailored to this surface, and he’s been one of the strongest performers in the clay-court swing so far: a semi-finalist in Monte Carlo, Munich & Madrid before winning the title in Geneva.

His serve has improved significantly over the past 18 months and his spin production on the forehand allows him to hit extremely heavy balls on this surface, while his defense and shot tolerance are excellent.

He will be a Top-16 seed and will prove a tough out for anyone in his quarter of the draw. Warm, sunny conditions will aid his game and increase his chances of a deep run.

French Open Women’s Picks

Favorite: Iga Swiatek +300

Last year’s winner has continued to establish her clay court dominance, storming to the title in Rome and dishing out a 6-0/6-0 hammering to Karolina Pliskova in the final.

Swiatek’s game is simply made for clay, her production of heavy spin, especially off the forehand wing, allows her to bully opponents from the baseline. Her performance in the final last year was a clear example of how difficult flatter ball-strikers find her style.

This price is still a little short for my liking, she’s only 19 and the pressure of being a defending champion can be seismic. It’s been 14 years since a woman has defended her crown in Paris.

Underdog to Watch: Ashleigh Barty +500

The 2019 Champion has been in fine form during the clay court swing, winning the title in Stuttgart and reaching the final in Madrid, however a niggling arm injury resulted in her retiring in Rome, and that is a concern coming into this event.

Barty’s high tennis IQ is a big attribute on any surface but especially clay. Her ability to mix speeds and spins can frustrate opponents, while her kick serve is one of the best on tour.

I would recommend keeping an eye on her early-round performances before betting any futures, just in case the injury problems reoccur.

Live Long Shot: Paula Badosa +3,300

Badosa is having a breakout season in 2021 but her performances in last year’s French Open suggested that it was coming, reaching the last 16 with victories against former winners & finalists Jelena Ostapenko & Sloane Stephens, respectively.

She beat Barty on the green clay in Charleston before a deep run in the Madrid Masters, becoming the first Spanish woman to reach the final four.

Her game has few weaknesses and she’s a fantastic ball-striker off both wings, she should thrive in Paris once again.

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