The French Open final will not feature Rafael Nadal for only the fourth time since 2005, as the reigning champion was knocked out by Novak Djokovic in a classic semi-final. The Serbian now takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas in his quest for a second French Open crown and 19th major overall.
Covers Experts' resident tennis ace, Tennis Insiders, is here to break down the players and how they match up with our French Open men’s final picks.
French Open men's final betting preview
Novak Djokovic betting breakdown
Djokovic overcame a significant physical and mental hurdle by taking out Nadal in four sets in just over four hours on Friday evening. The first semi-final requiring five sets meant this match didn’t start until after 7 p.m. local time, and Nadal’s forehand simply isn’t as effective in cooler conditions as it doesn’t bounce as high, allowing Djokovic more control of the rallies and court position.
It was a stunning performance, but Sunday’s final will be played in the heat of the afternoon and despite Djokovic’s brilliance, sunny, high-bouncing clay courts have always been the most difficult for him to play his best tennis on.
Stefanos Tsitsipas betting breakdown
Tsitsipas reached his first major final in style. The 22-year-old had mostly plain sailing en route but faced adversity when seeing a two-set lead neutralized in his semi-final, though he played some clutch tennis in the final set to advance past Alexander Zverev. The Greek is 22-3 on the dirt in 2021 but now faces one of the three players to have beaten him, Novak Djokovic.
His semi-final performance displayed the maturity he’s developed over the past 18 months, he played a patient game and constructed the points beautifully, and his forehand was levels ahead of Zverev’s as he dominated those exchanges. That shot will prove crucial to his chances on Sunday.
French Open men's final matchup preview
These two have played some of the best clay court matches we’ve seen in the past year, a five-setter at the French Open last October was followed by another thriller in Rome, with Djokovic prevailing narrowly in both.
In those two meetings:
French Open
- Djokovic first serve points won: 73 percent
- Djokovic second serve points won: 47 percent
- Tsitsipas first serve points won: 59 percent
- Tsitsipas second serve points won: 49 percent
Rome
- Djokovic first serve points won: 69 percent
- Djokovic second serve points won: 44 percent
- Tsitsipas first serve points won: 58 percent
- Tsitsipas second serve points won: 47 percent
Tsitsipas has had more success on the second serve than Djokovic due to his kick serve, which sends the ball bouncing near shoulder height, making it uncomfortable for Djokovic to return.
Djokovic almost enjoys seeing Tsitsipas hit first serves because he loves absorbing pace and redirecting, rather than having to generate his own pace off a slower second serve.
These will be the warmest, highest-bouncing conditions that the pair have played in. Djokovic’s backhand defense got a good workout against Nadal however, and his confidence will be peaking.
Nervous energy certainly affected Tsitsipas during his semi-final, after playing flawless tennis for the first two sets tension in his arm took the zip out of his forehand but he did recover well in the fifth set. However, a repeat of those nerves is likely to prove extremely damaging if he finds himself ahead in the scoreboard on Sunday.
It’s been 17 years since a final in Paris has gone the distance, here’s hoping Sunday provides another classic spectacle between this pairing.
French Open men's final picks
- First set Over 2.5 breaks of serve (+110)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas to win first set and lose match (+500)
