As Super Bowl LX approaches, traders are flocking to Kalshi to bet on which ads will land a 2026 spot on NBC. From 'Yes' locks like Pepsi to value plays that could really pay off, the ad break has become the new focus of our attention.
Traders are now buying and selling contracts on the brands expected to advertise during a Super Bowl commercial, and some are far better value than others.
NBC typically sells out its advertising inventory early. ‘Yes’ contracts for the likes of Pepsi, T-Mobile and Liquid Death all come with a hefty price tag, but there’s still value to be found amongst some of the other options.
Key Takeaways:
- To date, the ads market has generated over $1 million in total volume
- Sydney Sweeney is the favorite to appear in a game ad before February 9
- We analyze the most likely contenders for this year’s Super Bowl ad spots
Let’s take a look at the picks that, based on brand history and current industry trends, are worth considering in the run-up to the big game.
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Super Bowl Ads Prediction Markets: Best Value Picks for 2026
There’s value to be found in this market for traders able to identify mispriced ‘Yes’ contracts, where official announcements may have outpaced market sentiment. Here are a few of the best value brands available right now.
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Which brands will advertise during the Big Game 2026?
BUY: Spotify | Yes 47¢
Spotify has been expanding its video podcasting and broadcast capabilities recently, making it all the more likely to run a Super Bowl ad this year.
The 2026 halftime show features Bad Bunny, one of the platform’s most streamed artists, and Spotify could well take the opportunity to launch a major new product refresh or Wrapped-style brand campaign during the breaks.
BUY: Temu | Yes 45¢
Temu shocked the industry by running multiple ads in both 2024 and 2025. Despite continuing political scrutiny, the company’s growth strategy relies entirely on blitz marketing to maintain its dominance online.
Currently priced as a coin flip, this brand is likely to continue its tradition of running Super Bowl ads in 2026. If it doesn’t, it’ll signify a real shift in its corporate strategy.
BUY: Perplexity AI | Yes 31¢
Google and Microsoft will likely mention AI in their ads, but this year brands like OpenAI are expected to hold advertising spaces of their own. OpenAI is priced well over 90¢, but Perplexity AI is just 33¢.
Let’s not forget, this is one of the fastest growing and most affluent industries in the world right now, and its brands are looking to assert their dominance on biggest stages. There could well be value to be found in AI companies.
BUY: Vuori | Yes 30¢
Challenger apparel brands like Vuori and Hoka are increasingly taking the ad spots previously held by the likes of Nike and Under Armour. And that’s why Vuori is one to watch this year.
Vuori is expanding rapidly, and it’s target audience will definitely be watching the Super Bowl on NBC. It’d make perfect sense for the brand to run an ad this year.
BUY: Grok | Yes 25¢
This is a volatility trade. Elon Musk has historically avoided traditional advertising, but given the recent push for Grok to become a mainstream consumer assistant, a cheeky 30-second spot (similar to the Coinbase QR code) isn't out of the question.
At 25¢, the risk-to-reward ratio is highly favorable on this one!
Who will appear in a big game ad before Feb 9, 2026?
BUY: Sydney Sweeney | Yes 79¢
Sydney Sweeney has been the face of a huge viral marketing campaign in the run-up to the Super Bowl, which culminated in a publicity stunt at the Hollywood sign. It’s all in promotion of the star’s new lingerie line, Syrn (which happens to be backed by Jeff Bezos).
The Hollywood sign stunt can be seen as the pre-game viral hook, a clear indicator that Sweeney will appear in a commercial during the game. While the price is high, traders could still get a 25% return buying ‘Yes’.
AVOID: Timothée Chalamet | Yes 57¢
Chalamet is priced as a coin flip at the moment, but without any concrete news to suggest he will or won’t be appearing in a Super Bowl ad this is a risky buy.
The actor has a history of appearing in Super Bowl ads (let’s not forget Edgar Scissorhands in Cadillac's 2021 Super Bowl commercial), however we haven’t yet seen any teasers featuring the star.
And to complicate matters, Chalamet’s partner Kylie Jenner is likely to appear in an ad for Khy or Glow, and he could well make a brief cameo there. This one’s too tricky to predict, so, given its current price point we’d suggest avoiding it altogether.
Buy: Harry Styles | No 83¢
A ‘No for Harry Styles is a high probability win. While the star has recently started to promote his upcoming world tour, he’s notoriously selective about commercial work.
Harry Styles’ music is used by a handful of brands that may advertise during the game, but we rarely see the man himself appearing in paid endorsements. We’d advise buying ‘No’ on this one.
How Super Bowl Prediction Markets Work
Super Bowl prediction markets, like those on Kalshi, function as a specialized exchange where you trade event contracts rather than placing traditional bets.
Instead of betting against the house, as you would with a traditional sportsbook, on Kalshi you are trading against other people based on the probability of an event occurring.
1. The Binary Yes/No System
Every market is built on a simple question (e.g., "Will Temu run an ad during the Super Bowl?").
All contracts settle at exactly $1.00 if the event happens (Yes) or $0.00 if it doesn't. The price is based on probability. It represents the market's estimate of the chance it will happen.
If 'Yes' costs 45¢, the market believes there is a 45% chance the brand will advertise. If you buy at 45¢ and it happens, you make 55¢ profit ($1.00 payout minus your 45¢ cost).
2. Trading vs. Betting
Unlike a traditional bet where your money is locked until the game ends, contracts on prediction markets are tradeable assets. So, if news breaks that a brand has pre-released their ad on YouTube, the ‘Yes’ price can instantly jump from, say, 50¢ to 95¢.
Traders can sell at any time before the game to lock in profits or cut losses. You don't have to wait for the Super Bowl to end to get paid if you sell to another trader.
3. Ad-Specific Resolution Rules
For the Super Bowl ads market, the rules are very strict to prevent ambiguity. If trading on ads that’ll be shown during the game, the ad must air during the national broadcast (after the kickoff whistle and before the game clock hits zero).
Regional ads do not count, neither do any ads during the national anthem or trophy ceremony. Equally, a logo on a scoreboard in the background does not count.
4. Fees vs. Profit Margins
Sportsbooks make money by factoring in a profit margin, which is hidden in the odds. Prediction markets are different, as they instead charge a transaction fee (usually 1¢ to 2¢ per contract). Because the prices are driven by users, the difference between the buy and sell price is often much tighter than sportsbook odds.
5. Legal and Regulated Status
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange. So it’s far safer than offshore betting sites. Kalshi holds its funds in U.S. regulated accounts, and it’s legal in many states (like California and Texas) where traditional sports betting is still restricted.
Super Bowl Ad Markets: FAQs
They function as binary event contracts where you buy a ‘Yes’ share if you believe a specific brand will air a commercial, which pays out exactly $1.00 if the ad appears and $0.00 if it does not.
While it feels like betting, Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC, meaning these are technically considered financial derivatives rather than traditional sports wagers.
Since Kalshi is regulated like a stock exchange, using material non-public information, such as knowing an ad buy is confirmed before it's public, could be flagged as illegal insider trading by federal authorities.
Traditional sportsbooks rarely offer markets for Super Bowl ads. Users also often prefer prediction markets because they offer odds driven by peer-to-peer trading volume rather than a vig or house edge built in by a bookie.
According to recent market trends, high-interest contracts are currently centered on tech giants like OpenAI and streaming services like Netflix, as traders speculate on which companies can afford the record $7 million airtime price tag.
