With Super Bowl 60 fast approaching, American football fans from coast to coast are on the verge of having countless betting and prediction market options at their literal fingertips.
But while the basic premises of sportsbooks and prediction markets are the same – choose a market, choose an outcome, and hope for victory – their approaches are as different as a star quarterback and a third-string kicker (if that's actually a thing.) And if you have access to both, understanding how each works and using that information to decide which is the best option for you is key to making your Super Bowl night a good one.
Here's a look at the key similarities and differences between sports betting apps and prediction market apps, and what each option offers ahead of this year's Super Bowl showdown.
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooks for the Super Bowl
| Category | Sportsbooks | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|---|
| ⚔️ Opponent | You versus the "house" |
Peer-to-peer market trading
|
| 🏷️ Pricing | Fixed odds with "vig" |
Transparent probability-based pricing
|
| 🏦 Liquidity | Funds locked until finish |
Sell positions for live profit
|
| 🟢 Availability | Restricted to "legal" states |
Nationwide (mostly) federal access
|
| 📈 Winning Limits | Successful bettors often limited |
Trade as much as liquid
|
| 🔠 Market Options | Wider variety of betting choices |
Concentrated focus on popular markets
|
| 🧾 Taxation | W-2G gambling winnings | 1099-B capital gains/losses |
| 🏛️ Regulation | State-level gaming boards |
Federal CFTC exchange oversight
|
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⚔️ Opponent: The "house" vs. peer-to-peer trading
The biggest difference between sports betting and prediction markets: who pays you out when you win your Super Bowl action (or takes your money if you lose).
When you use a traditional sportsbook, you engage in a "house" model. Every bet is a direct contract between you and the bookmaker. The sportsbook acts as the principal: they set the odds, take your money, and profit directly when you lose. To manage their risk and ensure profit, they use a "vig" (juice) to tilt the mathematical probability in their favor.
Conversely, prediction markets are peer-to-peer (P2P) exchanges. They function like a stock exchange. When you buy a "Yes" contract on a Super Bowl outcome, you are buying it from another trader who is willing to sell it (essentially someone taking the "No" side).
Neutrality: The exchange is a disinterested third party. It does not care about the outcome of your Super Bowl plays because it doesn't take the other side of your trade.
Revenue model: Instead of profiting from your losses, the exchange earns money through transaction fees.
The "sharp" advantage: In the house model, if you win too much on Super Bowl Sunday, sportsbooks may "limit" or ban your account in the future. On a P2P exchange, successful traders are welcomed because they provide liquidity and volume, thereby generating more revenue for the platform. And as new prediction market players take advantage of Kalshi promo code or Crypto.com referral code offers in the days leading up to Super Bowl 60, you can expect to see even more volume on these and other popular exchanges.
🏷️ Super Bowl pricing: Fixed odds vs. implied probabilities
Your Super Bowl action will include plays on favorites, underdogs and/or longshots – but while both sportsbooks and prediction markets have these in abundance, how the odds and probabilities are displayed couldn't be more different.
When you look at a traditional sportsbook for your Super Bowl plays, you are presented with fixed odds (e.g., -110 or +150). These numbers are not purely a reflection of who will win; they are a calculated risk-management tool.
The sportsbook builds in a "vig" (or overround), effectively charging you a hidden fee to place the bet. If both sides of a game are -110, the "math" says the total probability is 104.7%. That extra 4.7% is the house's guaranteed cut. Vig varies from book to book (and if you're into price shopping, having multiple sportsbooks is a great way to ensure maximum value), though some will reduce their vig significantly on specific Super Bowl bets like the result of the coin toss in order to generate more activity.
Prediction markets eliminate the math homework. Pricing is strictly binary, typically ranging from $0.00 to $1.00.
The price is the probability: If a contract for "Seahawks to win Super Bowl LX" is trading at 62¢, the market is telling you there is a 62% collective belief in that outcome.
Transparent upside: Your profit is always the difference between your entry price and the $1.00 settlement. Buying at 62¢ means you risk 62¢ to make 38¢.
Market-driven spreads: Instead of a house-dictated "vig," prediction markets offer bid-ask spreads. On high-volume events like the Super Bowl, this spread can be as thin as 1¢, offering significantly better "synthetic odds" than a traditional sportsbook's -110 lines.
🏦 Super Bowl liquidity: Locked funds vs. tradable assets
You'll find stark differences in how accessible your Super Bowl 60 investment is depending on which avenue you choose. With sports betting sites, your money is tied up until the result of your bet is settled; with prediction markets, that action remains liquid throughout the event, allowing you to move on it in real time.
Traditional sportsbooks
"The Lock": When you place a Super Bowl bet at a sportsbook, your funds are essentially locked into that wager. While the majority of books offer "Cash Out" options, these are typically discretionary and calculated with a heavy penalty to the player. For most bettors, the only way to "exit" a bet early is to place a second, opposite bet (hedging) at another book, which doubles your risk and costs you a second round of juice.
Prediction markets
The "Exit": The moment you enter into a Super Bowl market, you can move on it. For example, if you buy a "Seahawks to Win" contract at 45¢ and they score on the opening drive, that contract might instantly jump to 60¢. You can sell your shares back to the market at any time before the clock hits zero if you're keen on reinvesting that money elsewhere (or you don't have faith that Seattle will hold on).
This flexibility allows for some savvy strategy. You can "scalp" small price movements during the first quarter or "stop-loss" your position (sell out of a rapidly dropping price) if a star player gets injured, preserving your capital instead of watching it go to zero.
🟢 Super Bowl availability: The 2026 legal landscape
The question of whether players can partake in legal Super Bowl action depends entirely on which legal framework a platform uses. While the Super Bowl is a national event, your ability to trade it is currently a tug-of-war between federal financial regulators and state gaming attorneys.
Traditional sportsbooks
The state-by-state slog: Wide-scale legal sportsbook presence predates the prediction market surge by several years – but it's also highly regulated, and legislative red tape resulted in several states waiting years between the initial introduction of sports betting bills and wagering finally becoming legal. And for residents in massive markets like Texas, California, and Georgia, all of whom remain blocked from opening a sportsbook account, Super Bowl 60 is simply another event without the possibility of legal wagering.
Prediction markets
The federal "fast track": Prediction markets operate under federal oversight and have historically claimed the right to operate nationwide, regardless of local laws. This has turned states like California and Texas into the biggest hubs for Super Bowl trading; since the federal government views these as "event contracts" rather than "gambling," they have quickly flourished where traditional books remain illegal. Barring a dramatic legal shift before kickoff, we should see massive participation in Super Bowl prediction markets in these states.
📈 Super Bowl winning limits: Throttling vs. liquidity
This category highlights a major "tug-of-war" between two very different philosophies of handling successful players.
Traditional sportsbooks
Advantage: Guaranteed Action
As great as it is to have the benefit of greater flexibility with your prediction market plays, that's only a plus if there are bettors interested in the opposing side of your action. With traditional sportsbooks, the existence of "one-sided markets" doesn't limit you from putting a bet down, even if the book is taking on significant liability on a particular outcome. If 99% of bettors liked the Super Bowl favorite, you could still bet on either team; in that same scenario, with a prediction market, you might have a difficult time finding a taker for the "No".
Drawback: Player Throttling
You might like being able to bet on anything you want and know that the sportsbook will take your action, but if you're winning too often, you might find your betting limits significantly curtailed. Sportsbooks fiercely defend themselves against risk and liability, since they're the ones footing the bill when players win – and if they recognize patterns they don't like, they are within their rights to throttle how much repeated winners can bet on sides or totals. In some cases, professional bettors will be restricted to a few dollars per market.
Prediction markets
Advantage: Massive Limits
Bettors with deep pockets who have been chased from their legal sportsbooks of choice will always have a home with prediction markets. The main reason: Exchanges don't assume any liability on their markets. The peer-to-peer setup ensures that the overwhelming majority of money changing hands is done so between players, with the prediction market taking transaction fees as part of the process. In this scenario, banning players is not only discouraged – it's literally the worst thing for their business.
Disadvantage: The Liquidity Wall
Having the ability to pour as much money as you like into a particular market is great – but if you can't find someone to sell to, the exercise becomes considerably less enjoyable. And that's one of the main drawbacks of the prediction market experience. This will almost certainly arise for Super Bowl 60, with the leading prediction markets all expected to offer some niche markets. You might be keen to play them, but if the "order book" is too thin, a prediction market is going to significantly limit how much you can put down.
🔠 Super Bowl market options: Variety vs. precision
The gap in market variety between sports betting operators and prediction markets is closing rapidly. While sportsbooks have the edge on "fun" and parlay depth, prediction markets are introducing unique ways to trade the game that traditional bookies won't touch – and that could give it a significant boost given the size of the casual audience the Super Bowl attracts.
Traditional sportsbooks
Depth of detail: Sportsbooks are built for the fan who wants a customized experience. They offer thousands of "micro-props," from the coin toss result to the exact rushing yards of a third-string tight end. Their greatest strength is the same-game parlay (SGP), which allows you to link multiple events for a massive potential payout. Sportsbooks still dominate the "novelty" space because they can manually grade subjective outcomes (like Gatorade color) that decentralized exchanges often avoid for legal settlement reasons.
Prediction Markets
The rise of the "macro" prop: Prediction markets have moved far beyond just picking the winner. While you won't find as many "Gatorade props," you will find high-liquidity markets for high-level outcomes that treat the Super Bowl as a major cultural event. For example, you can trade contracts on which celebrity guests will appear on the broadcast or which commercial will air first. But there's a major issue with prediction markets getting too granular with their Super Bowl offerings – and it's that darned liquidity issue mentioned earlier:
🧾 Super Bowl taxation: W-2G vs. 1099-B
How the IRS views your Super Bowl success is one of the bigger issues when talking about the difference between sports betting and prediction market use.
Traditional sportsbooks
Under the 2026 rules, sports betting is still classified as gambling, but with a new, more restrictive twist.
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The 90% Rule: You can now only deduct up to 90% of your losses against your winnings.
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The Math: If you win $10,000 on the Super Bowl but lost $10,000 earlier in the season, you no longer "break even" in the eyes of the IRS. You will be taxed on the remaining $1,000 of "phantom income." This effectively creates a tax on high-volume bettors, even if they are net negative for the year.
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Reporting: You will still receive Form W-2G for significant individual wins.
Prediction markets
Prediction markets are regulated as financial exchanges, so they generally fall under the tax rules for derivatives and capital assets rather than gambling.
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Net Performance: You are typically taxed on your actual net profit (total gains minus 100% of your total losses). There is no "90% cap" here; if you lose $100 and win $100, your taxable gain is zero.
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Deductibility: Unlike gambling losses, which require itemizing on Schedule A, capital losses from prediction markets can often be used to offset other income (up to the IRS limits).
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Reporting: You will receive a Form 1099-B, making your record-keeping look much more like a brokerage statement than a series of betting slips.
Fortunately for those of you keying in on the Super Bowl for your betting prediction market action, you won't need to sort out the tax situation from your gains or losses until the following year, so breathe easy.
🏛️ Super Bowl regulation: federal oversight vs. state gaming
Traditional sportsbooks are managed by each state's relevant governing body; the task usually falls to the state's gaming control board. Each state, from Arizona to New York, sets its own rules on who can bet on Super Bowl markets and how sportsbook operators are taxed.
These boards view sports betting as controlled entertainment, prioritizing local licensing and responsible gaming oversight while often directing sports betting tax revenue to education or RG initiatives. And with the Super Bowl the highest-volume event on the North American sports calendar, the tax intake will be a massive difference-maker for many states.
Prediction markets, however, exist as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). They're regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – the same federal agency that oversees gold and oil futures. You aren't placing a "wager"; you are trading a binary swap (a financial derivative).
The CFTC’s primary job is to ensure market integrity and transparency. They mandate that all prediction markets remain a neutral platform with no financial interest in whether you win or lose. So while the Super Bowl will bring in billions in activity to prediction markets, those dollars aren't subject to the same tax remittance as sports betting revenue.
