Whether you're an NFL fan without a legal betting option or an action junkie looking for an alternative to sportsbooks, Super Bowl 60 is sure to be a game-changer.
Prediction market apps have taken the gaming world by storm, culminating with what is sure to be a massive presence for this year's Big Game encounter between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots at Levi's Stadium outside San Francisco. New players, including those in states without sports betting legislation, are just a Kalshi promo code away from being part of the action.
But there are key differences between sports betting odds and prediction market pricing – and this might represent the biggest early hurdle for new traders. While a sportsbook might list the Patriots at +300, a prediction market will list them at $0.25.
Understanding how to bridge the gap between these two formats is the key to not only trading confidently, but also finding the always-important "positive expected value" (+EV) for the final game of the NFL season.
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The $1.00 Rule: The Foundation of Prediction Markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult to grasp. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional Super Bowl bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, Super Bowl prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl is trading at $0.68, the market believes they have a 68% chance of victory.
Converting Percentages to American Odds
To compare prices of Kalshi's Super Bowl events to a sportsbook like DraftKings or FanDuel, you must convert the percentage (the price) into American odds.
The Underdog Formula (Price below $0.50)
If the price is less than $0.50, the team is an underdog.
Formula: (100 / Price) * 100 - 100
Example: Let's say the Patriots are trading at $0.25.
(100 / 25) * 100 - 100 = +300
The Favorite Formula (Price above $0.50)
If the price is higher than $0.50, the team is a favorite.
Formula: (Price / (1 - Price)) * -100
Example: Cardi B making an appearance at the Super Bowl Halftime Show is trading at $0.63.
(63 / (1 - 0.63)) = -170
Here's a breakdown of how milestone prediction market probabilities translate to American odds:
| Kalshi Price | Probability | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| $0.05 | 5% | +1900 |
| $0.10 | 10% | +900 |
| $0.20 | 20% | +400 |
| $0.25 | 25% | +300 |
| $0.40 | 40% | +150 |
| $0.50 | 50% | +100 |
| $0.60 | 60% | -150 |
| $0.75 | 75% | -300 |
| $0.80 | 80% | -400 |
| $0.90 | 90% | -900 |
Why the Prices Differ: The "Vig" vs. The Fee
Price display isn't the only way sportsbooks and prediction markets differ. As those new to either process will learn, how each business makes money is also quite different.
Sportsbooks: The Hold
Traditional books build a "margin" or "vig" into their odds. If both sides of a bet are -110, the book is effectively taking a 4.7% cut of the action. Some markets feature less vig (the Super Bowl coin flip is notorious for carrying +100/+100 odds at some books, while others will reduce vig but not eliminate it completely), while others, like more obscure prop plays, will often see a higher margin due to less certainty and higher perceived risk.
Prediction Markets: The Fee
Exchanges like Kalshi typically charge a transparent transaction fee rather than baking a margin into their event prices. This leads to "tighter" spreads and prices that more accurately reflect the true probability of the outcome. The majority of Super Bowl markets available this year feature transaction fees in the 1-3¢ range for each option, with the odd 4¢ fee built into more obscure events.
Prediction Market Pricing: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why do prediction market percentages sometimes add up to more than 100%?
This is known as the "order book spread." Because there is a gap between what sellers want (the "Ask") and what buyers offer (the "Bid"), the aggregate of the "Yes" prices for all teams might sit at 102% or 103%. High-liquidity markets like the Super Bowl usually stay very close to 100%.
Is $0.50 always equal to +100?
Yes. In both prediction markets and sportsbooks, a 50% probability represents "Even Money" or +100/+100.
Which is more accurate: the sportsbook or the prediction market?
Historically, prediction markets are considered more "efficient" because they allow unlimited stakes from informed traders (the "smart money"), whereas sportsbooks often limit winning players or set lines to balance their own liability. It's not uncommon for sportsbooks to adjust based on information from prediction markets.
What happens to my money if the price goes down after I buy?
Since these are traded markets, the value of your contract fluctuates in real-time. If you buy the Patriots at $0.29 and they fall behind early in a game, the price might drop to $0.15. You can choose to sell at a loss or hold the contract until settlement.
