NBA Picks

The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis on Wednesday, as he will miss several games with a calf injury. This should increase the usage for Brown on the offensive end, which will help his assists prop, and Porzingis will be replaced in the lineup by Al Horford, who is going to work as a catch-and-shoot threat off other Celtics players creating for him. With Porzingis out and the Celtics lacking an offensive threat on the interior, don't be shocked if we see the Celtics hunting matchups in the low block for Brown against some of the smaller Heat guards. This would force the Heat to send help defense, also opening up potential assists. Brown is projected to have 3.4 assists on Wednesday against the Heat.

Washington and the Mavericks face a smaller Clippers rotation in Game 5, with L.A. star forward Kawhi Leonard sidelined. That shift makes L.A. far less effective on the glass, opening up chances for Washington to score on offensive putbacks, and stretches the matchups against the versatile forward. Washington’s scoring prop for Game 5 in Dallas is sitting at 10.5 points Over/Under, a point shorter than his totals for the first four games of the series. However, the minutes will continue to come for him (due to his defensive efforts) and player projections are very bullish on Washington’s performance tonight. Of the models consulted, all called for at least 12 points from Washington tonight, with a ceiling of 14 points over 36-plus minutes of floor time. My number comes out to 13.4 points, which is more than enough to push pass his point total.

In the final minutes of Game 4, the Dallas Mavericks were guarding James Harden with PJ Washington, and there was an emphasis on stopping his three-point shot. Washington was up in Harden's grill, essentially conceding the drive. Harden capitalized by making multiple floaters, and Jason Kidd has stated that the gameplan won't change for Game 5; the goal is to take away Harden's three-point shot and make him drive. If the Mavericks are going to extend their defense against Harden and allow him to get in the lane, the potential assists for Harden could be off the charts on Wednesday. Harden is projected to have 8.9 assists on Wednesday against the Mavericks.

While we're not dependent on elevated minutes for Russell Westbrook to establish an edge, it does feel like it's very possible that he could see them. The Mavericks offense flows through their backcourt of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving; they control everything for this Mavericks squad. In Game 4, the Clippers were unable to contain Irving as he scored 40 points. If Irving gets off to a hot start once again, you're telling me Ty Lue might not look at his bench with Leonard out and opt to give Westbrook more run so he can be the primary defender on Irving? Outside of Paul George, Westbrook is the next best defender on the Clippers roster, especially on the perimeter. Westbrook is projected to have 4.1 assists on Wednesday against the Mavericks.