Seattle Seahawks

Picks

Kyren Williams averages 73.6 rushing yards per game and has rushed for more than 70 yards in six of his last seven contests. There are a couple reasons why the O/U on his rushing yards is set so low for Thursday; Seattle has a strong run defense and backup RB Blake Corum has been cutting into his touches. That said, Williams picked up 91 yards on 12 carries when he faced this Seahawks stop unit in Week 11. He's also more talented and consistent than Corum which should lead to heavier usage in a game of this magnitude. In addition, there's rain and heavy wind in the forecast which could lead to Sean McVay leaning on his rushing attack. 

Parkinson is coming off a game against the Lions where he had season highs in targets (7), receptions (5), and receiving yards (75). Parkinson has seen his role in the passing game expand with Tyler Higbee on the IR. The tight end has logged 4+ receptions in four of his last six contests and he has a juicy matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off a 113-yard performance and leads the NFL with 1541 receiving yards through 14 games. He's been a model of consistency, going Over this number in 12 of 14 contests this season. What makes that even more impressive is that the Seahawks often play with a positive game script in blowout wins. They are a pick'em against the Rams on TNF, which should make for a competitive game with plenty of passing. The weak link of the Rams' defense lies in their secondary. They've allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers and rank 20th in the league in DVOA against No. 1 WRs.

Darnold is sneaky fast. We saw him rush for 24 yards against Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, with his coaches telling him to run more in second half and praising that rushing effort after the game. He went for 11 yards on the ground against the Rams in their first meeting and this LA team can get after the QB, especially with the starting LT probably out, and that could spring Darnold to run from pressure. Projections all sit above this total with some at 10 and 12 yards.

Stafford threw for a pair of scores in Week 11 against the Seahawks, and he also has multiple touchdown passes in 12 of 14 games this season. Additionally, the veteran threw for two TDs against Seattle and head coach Mike Macdonald in Week 9 before sitting out the Week 18 season finale last year. While it'll definitely be a bonus if Rams wide receiver Davante Adams (hamstring) suits up, I consider his iffy status and the rainy -- and potentially windy -- weather forecast too built into the price for this prop.

Matthew Stafford the Rams present the most capable offense this Seahawks team has faced since… well, their 21-19 loss to Los Angeles back in Week 11. Seattle takes a big step up in QB competition, having faced rookie Cam Ward, backup Max Brosmer, 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, and Philip “Ol’ Man” Rivers the past four outings.  While Stafford is no spring chicken, also at 37, he’s playing some of the best football of his career. And, as we saw in their last matchup, Los Angeles doesn’t need Stafford to blow up the box score in order for it to win. The Seahawks, on the other hand, do need QB Sam Darnold to show up. The journeyman passer has played better than expected overall yet struggled whenever Seattle run into a quality stop unit.

The Rams have been an incredible late-season bet, going 17–3 ATS in their last 20 games played in the month of December and have continued that form again this season. They’ve also owned this matchup, covering 11 of the last 14 meetings with Seattle, including five straight in Seattle, while consistently giving Sam Darnold problems. With Darnold’s play cooling off and questions lingering about his confidence in high-profile spots, this matchup once again sets up favorably for Los Angeles.