San Francisco 49ers

Picks

The running back boasts 596 rushing yards and 626 receiving yards through nine games. McCaffrey has finished with at least 50 receiving yards in eight of nine games, with the lone outlier being 43 yards against Houston. McCaffrey recorded 82 yards on eight catches back in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Rams, and he should easily clear 50 yards this time around.

Pineiro started the year with six straight games of at least seven points, including double digits in three of them, then had just one in Houston before bouncing back with 10 last week. The 49ers have given Pineiro plenty of opportunities this season, and he’s been a perfect 19 for 19 on field goals and 14 for 15 on extra points. He should be good for at least two field goals again this week, along with a touchdown or two.

The veteran gunslinger already sports 21 touchdown passes in eight games, surpassing his total of 20 in 16 games last year, and that’s largely due to his performance in recent weeks. Stafford has thrown for nine touchdown passes over the last two contests, and at least three in four of his last five starts. The 49ers have already surrendered three touchdown passes on two occasions, including in Week 5 to Stafford. I’ll take the plus odds for him to do it again.

I want exposure to the Rams’ run game this week with the 49ers’ defense falling apart. The D-line just lost first-round rookie Mykel Williams to an ACL tear, and three starters up front are already out. On top of that, two linebackers are questionable, and Fred Warner remains sidelined. This sets up as a great matchup for Kyren Williams, and this is the best TD price we’ve seen on him all year. He was -185 last week and played 81% of the first-half snaps. There’s a reason Blake Corum sits at +425. Plus, Puka Nakua is banged up and limited with a rib injury, which could shift more touches toward the backfield.

Nacua has topped 90 receiving yards in five of eight games, and even with a bye week and a missed game, he's still fourth in receiving yards (711) and tied for second in receptions (61) for the year. The Pro Bowler is pacing the NFL in PFF receiving grade and sports an elite 83.6% catch rate while being targeted on 36.9% of his routes, too. The 49ers have also been beaten through the air this season with ranks of 26th in PFF coverage grade and 25th in pass defense DVOA while also allowing the eighth-highest EPA per dropback and catch percentage to opposing wide receivers.

The 49ers dropped 34 points on the Giants this Sunday, amassing 380 yards, 25 first downs and averaging 5.8 yards per play. San Francisco hopes to be a little healthier in Week 10. Maybe this is the week Brock Purdy returns under center. Along with the Niners’ QB1, Kyle Shanahann hopes WR Ricky Pearsall could be back in action.

The Rams got a scare from WR1 Puka Nacua, who left Week 9 with a rib injury. However, Sean McVay told reporters he was OK and held out due to Los Angeles’ rolling the Saints. The Rams scored 34 points of their own, totaling 438 yards, 30 first downs, and 5.7 yards per play.

Shanahan and McVay is one of the best coaching rivalries in the biz, with these head coaches finishing with a 10-7 Over/Under count in their 17 regular season run-ins since taking those coaching jobs in 2017, including 4-1 O/U the past five meetings.