San Francisco 49ers Picks

Pick made: yesterday

o44.5 -110

o44.5 -110

In the past month, they’ve faced three of the top four teams per defensive DVOA and averaged 22.6 points scored in those games. That’s good going when they’ve averaged just 15.5 points across the whole season.

The 49ers are averaging 23.6 points per game, and with the Titans showing real signs of improvement, we should see the game total smashed.

With the 49ers likely to have a big game themselves, we should expect the Titans to put up points too, even if it’s not enough to win or even cover the spread.

Read Full Analysis

Touchdowns

Tony Pollard o0.5 Touchdowns (+310)

Best Odds

o0.5 +300

Pick made: 3 days ago

o0.5 +265

o0.5 +250

o0.5 +270

o0.5 +300

o0.5 +255

I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number. The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out. Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.

Total

o44.5 (-108)

Best Odds

Pick made: 6 days ago

o44.5 -110

o44.5 -110

The Over has been a winner in five of the Titans past seven games and three of the 49ers past five.

Spread

SF -12.5 (-112)

Best Odds

-12.5 -110

Pick made: 6 days ago

-12.5 -112

-12.5 -110

-12.5 -115

-12.5 -110

The 49ers have covered the spread in four of their past five games and come in fresh from the bye week.

Passing Yards

Cam Ward o199.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 208.75 (Over)

Best Odds

o198.5 -115

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o199.5 -112

o199.5 -110

o200.5 -112

o198.5 -115

o201.5 -113

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. This year, the poor 49ers defense has yielded a staggering 72.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-largest rate in the league.. The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

-115 at BetMGM

Interceptions Thrown

Brock Purdy u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-113)

Projection 0.41 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 -113

Pick made: 20 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 -113

u0.5 -120

u0.5 -114

u0.5 -115

u0.5 -117

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 31.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

-113 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Chimere Dike o30.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 44.6 (Over)

Best Odds

o30.5 -112

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o33.5 -111

o33.5 -110

o30.5 -112

o33.5 -110

o32.5 -127

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. The 49ers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.4%) versus WRs this year (67.4%).. The San Francisco 49ers safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

-112 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Jauan Jennings o47.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 57.91 (Over)

Best Odds

o47.5 -112

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o49.5 -110

o47.5 -112

o50.5 -110

o48.5 -118

The leading projections forecast Jauan Jennings to accrue 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among WRs.. This year, the weak Titans pass defense has conceded a massive 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the highest rate in the NFL.. The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, surrendering 9.79 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Tennessee's CB corps has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football.

-112 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

George Kittle u61.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 52.73 (Under)

Best Odds

u63.5 -118

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u60.5 -114

u61.5 -110

u61.5 -112

u63.5 -118

u61.5 -115

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. After averaging 56.0 air yards per game last year, George Kittle has fallen off this year, now sitting at 41.0 per game.. George Kittle has posted a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (76.0).

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Gunnar Helm o24.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 28.34 (Over)

Best Odds

o23.5 -118

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o24.5 -113

o24.5 -110

o24.5 -115

o23.5 -118

o24.5 -118

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Tony Pollard o8.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 10.63 (Over)

Best Odds

o7.5 -115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o8.5 -119

o7.5 -115

o8.5 -112

o7.5 -118

o8.5 -120

The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in football.. Tony Pollard has accumulated a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 74.2% to 83.8%.

-115 at bet365

Receiving Yards

Christian McCaffrey o40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Projection 43.58 (Over)

Best Odds

o40.5 -112

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o43.5 -110

o44.5 -110

o40.5 -112

o44.5 +100

o42.5 -113

Christian McCaffrey has been more involved as a potential target this season (81.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (68.1%).. In this contest, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.7 targets.. Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a whopping 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey grades out as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 62.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.. The Tennessee Titans pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus running backs this year, surrendering 7.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.

-112 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Brock Purdy o8.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 19.83 (Over)

Best Odds

o7.5 -126

Pick made: 6 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o8.5 -110

o7.5 -126

o7.5 -135

o8.5 -118

With a 12.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 6th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.1% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The Tennessee Titans defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 4.97 adjusted yards-per-carry.

-126 at FanDuel

Rushing Yards

Tony Pollard o46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Projection 59.33 (Over)

Best Odds

o46.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o49.5 -109

o46.5 -110

o49.5 -114

o48.5 -115

o49.5 -118

The projections expect Tony Pollard to total 15.5 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.. Out of all RBs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 95th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 66.1% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.. The San Francisco 49ers defensive tackles profile as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

-110 at bet365

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

64% picking San Francisco

36% 36%

64% 64%

Total Picks TEN 422, SF 744

Spread

TEN

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Top User Picks

More Picks

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'Leonoodle' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

Leonoodle is #1 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (7-2-1) and +6350 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'Juice66' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

Juice66 is #10 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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TEN

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'jmeans11' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

jmeans11 is #10 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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TEN

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'Juice66' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

Juice66 is #10 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'harrisonian175' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

harrisonian175 is #2 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5970 units on the season.

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TEN

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'harrisonian175' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Under (44.0)

harrisonian175 is #2 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5970 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'interfly' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

interfly is #2 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +6750 units on the season.

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TEN

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'interfly' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

interfly is #2 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +6750 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'cashbb1030' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

cashbb1030 is #3 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +6700 units on the season.

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TEN

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'cashbb1030' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

cashbb1030 is #3 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +6700 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'Alan Palmer' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

Alan Palmer is #3 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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TEN

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'Alan Palmer' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

Alan Palmer is #3 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'rinv49' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

rinv49 is #4 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (11-1-0) and +6530 units on the season.

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TEN

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'rinv49' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Under (42.5)

rinv49 is #4 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (11-1-0) and +6530 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'nogame' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

nogame is #4 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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TEN

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'nogame' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

nogame is #4 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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Over

Under

Total

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'gargoyle127' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

gargoyle127 is #5 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +6300 units on the season.

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TEN

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'gargoyle127' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

gargoyle127 is #5 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +6300 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'griz55' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

griz55 is #7 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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TEN

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'griz55' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (43.5)

griz55 is #7 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'CantTouchThis11' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

CantTouchThis11 is #7 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (7-5-1) and +5150 units on the season.

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TEN

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'CantTouchThis11' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

CantTouchThis11 is #7 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (7-5-1) and +5150 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'SouthernMotion' is picking San Francisco to cover (-12.5)

SouthernMotion is #8 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (8-4-1) and +5150 units on the season.

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TEN

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'SouthernMotion' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (44.5)

SouthernMotion is #8 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (8-4-1) and +5150 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'Rads5777' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

Rads5777 is #9 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +4930 units on the season.

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TEN

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'Rads5777' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Over (42.5)

Rads5777 is #9 on picking games that San Francisco is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +4930 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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'minus110' is picking Tennessee to cover (+12.5)

minus110 is #9 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (7-5-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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TEN

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'minus110' picks Tennessee vs San Francisco to go Under (44.5)

minus110 is #9 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (7-5-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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Over

Under

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