New York Giants

Picks

Despite the poor defense and propensity to hit the Over, I’m taking the Under. Dallas ranks fourth in scoring offense at 28.4 points per game, but New York is just 21st at 21.7 points. Thousand-yard receiver Wan’Dale Robinson and reliable tight end Theo Johnson will be out, and even against a porous Dallas defense, Jaxson Dart will have a tough time moving the ball with such limited options. On the other side of the field, the Cowboys’ running backs are banged up, and the team could be down to third-stringer Jaydon Blue leading the backfield. It’s unclear how much the starters will play for either team in this one, and it’s in the Giants’ best interest to lose. I won’t bet on a high-scoring matchup.

The Giants finally got the passing game going last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson was the clear focal point. He caught 11 passes on 14 targets, while no other New York receiver saw more than two looks. Robinson now sits at 92 catches and nine touchdowns on the season, and even with a rib injury, the usage is impossible to ignore. With milestones within reach and a favorable matchup against the Dallas defense, this price is too generous. I’m buying Robinson down to +150/+155.

This spread sits a little higher than it should in my opinion, mainly because Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott told reporters he wanted to suit up in Week 18 – despite the Cowboys having nothing to gain.

Prescott’s plans could vary from what the front office wants, especially considering the gruesome history of this MetLife Stadium turf. Dallas could already be without RB Javonte Williams (shoulder) and TE Jake Ferguson (calf), who left last Thursday’s game with injuries. That’s not only two top weapons but big parts of the Cowboys’ pass protection.

Prescott took a pounding in the Xmas Day win over Washington, absorbing six sacks and 11 QB hits. He now faces a Giants pass rush that scored four sacks in Week 17 and injured Raiders QB Geno Smith (ankle) in the process. New York has 13 total sacks in its last four games.

If Dak is active, I don’t think it will be for more than a half of football.