New York Giants Picks
1st in NFC East
(1 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
NYG @ LA Picks
NFL PicksYou have to think that the debacle in Australia will be Matt Stafford's worst game of the season - and there's nothing like some home cooking. Stafford averaged close to 300 yards per game at home in 2025 and is in a prime bounce-back spot after getting over a week to rest up for this Week 2 matchup. The Giants' secondary held Dak Prescott to 175 yards in Week 1, but the Rams are an entirely different monster - expect Stafford to right the ship in prime time.
Jaxson Dart isn't getting his rushing back scaled properly. He scrambled five times last week and added three designed runs for 54 yards. He also had three kneel-downs and lost five total yards, all in a game where he led wire-to-wire. Now he'll likely be playing from behind, increasing his passing rate, which should in turn increase his scrambling chances. He also likely won't lose five yards on kneel-downs as a touchdown underdog. The projections at Covers are calling for 37.6 rushing yards, and Dart to be the third-most active QB rusher in Week 2 with 7.2 carries.
I know an Under to wrap up Week 2 isn't getting the blood flowing, but look what happened to the Giants last Sunday night. Dallas and New York combined to go 17-for-22 on third down and scored on all seven of their combined red-zone trips. That game went Over by a half-point on its closing 47.5-point total. There is a reason 48.5 is on the other side of a key number. The Giants will suck the clock with a new-look offense that finished second in Week 1 in success rate, and they face a Rams defense without Myles Garrett that ranks third-worst in success rate. The Giants will sustain drives, but finishing them won't be as easy as it was last week. The Rams' offense isn't one that scares me from an explosive-play standpoint. They ran 3-TE sets at a 38% rate in Week 1, the second-most, and still had a -13.89 pass rate over expected in a losing effort. This projects as a slow game, and the Rams could still need some time to get up to 2026 speed on offense.
Expect the Rams to come out swinging after their embarrasing Australia travel plan blew up in their face. They’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after an outright loss, so responding to failure has been a part of their recent DNA. The Giants impressed in Week 1, but there are levels to this. Los Angeles entered the season as the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite and was -9.5 on the lookahead. Rested and pissed off, the Rams should deliver a beatdown.
Give me the Giants catching 7.5 points on Monday Night Football, as I make them closer to a 6-point underdog in this spot. I think everyone expects the Rams to bounce back, but I saw a level of toughness and identity from this Giants team that grabbed my attention in their first game under John Harbaugh. Matthew Stafford is one of the few MVP candidates who doesn't use his legs and is a pure pocket quarterback. That pocket might not be as clean as he'd like with Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Arvell Reese rushing the passer. I think the Giants' defense can make Stafford uncomfortable and prevent this offense from moving the ball up and down the field at will, allowing them to cover the big number. We saw what this defense did to George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb in Week 1, and I expect New York to make life difficult for Stafford.
Isaiah Likely was the cash converter last week and was a huge part of the Giants' offense, keeping pace with Malik Nabers in terms of usage and volume. Despite that, his TD price has not moved, which I don't mind at all. I understand it's the Rams, but they are just getting back from Australia and looked awful defending the pass in Week 1. Likely had four targets in the red zone and finished with two TDs. No other TE or WR had more than three RZ catches in Week 1. Likely is the No. 2 in this passing game and is a green light for a TD buy at 3x or better right now.
Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.
Colby Parkinson led the Rams' TE stable in snaps (75%) and routes (59%). He wasn't very active, but the whole offense was bad in Week 1. Only the Bills ran 3-TE sets at a higher rate than the Rams. Jaxson Dart is moving well in the pocket and getting a great combination of scrambles and designed runs. Dart loves the bright lights. Finally, Isaiah Likely's props have not adjusted to his new role in this offense. An indoor setting and a likely trailing game script only help.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusNYG @ LA · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
LA
-7.5 spread
-8.71
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
11.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
48.0 Total
47.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
9.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Dart
(QB)
o213.5 Passing Yards
226.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.0
DIFFERENCE
20.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Stafford
(QB)
u247.5 Passing Yards
244.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.1
DIFFERENCE
10.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Dart
(QB)
o31.5 Rushing Yards
37.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
24.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Skattebo
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
57.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
24.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
K. Williams
(RB)
u64.5 Rushing Yards
56.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.7
DIFFERENCE
22.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Nabers
(WR)
o65.5 Receiving Yards
75.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.7
DIFFERENCE
23.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Skattebo
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
14.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.2
DIFFERENCE
23.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Williams
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
15.49 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
22.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
P. Nacua
(WR)
o77.5 Receiving Yards
87.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.5
DIFFERENCE
20.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
I. Likely
(TE)
u45.5 Receiving Yards
42.97 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.5
DIFFERENCE
18.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
I. Likely
(TE)
o4.5 Receptions Made
4.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Nabers
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-12.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Parkinson
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.50 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-20.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Skattebo
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
1.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-24.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
K. Williams
(RB)
u13.5 Rushing Attempts
12.30 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.2
DIFFERENCE
18.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
J. Dart
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Attempts
6.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
12.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Skattebo
(RB)
o9.5 Rushing Attempts
13.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
3.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Dart
(QB)
u30.5 Passing Attempts
30.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
4.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
J. Dart
(QB)
o19.5 Passing Completions
20.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-2.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.09 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Nabers
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
21.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Parkinson
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.27 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Williams
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.71 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
11.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Nacua
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.54 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
I. Likely
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.3 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Dart
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.32 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
6.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Skattebo
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.37 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-18.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Stafford
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.39 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
15.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Dart
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.64%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low