Try telling Tyrone Tracy Jr. that these are just meaningless late-season contests. Though the Giants have stumbled to loss after loss, Tracy Jr. continues to run hard, and I expect New York to stick with a run-heavy script this weekend against the Raiders.
The Giants rank third in the league with 29.9 rushes per game, and there’s a lot of sense in easing the pressure on Jaxson Dart in the pocket by handing the ball off to capable running backs. So this prop jumps off the screen, with Tracy Jr. racking up 60+ rushing yards in five of his last six outings.
The Giants, even with their injuries, are the better of the two teams, and without Maxx Crosby, I’m confident the Giants score first. Tracy has now had 15+ carries in each of the past two weeks and scored two touchdowns.
The Raiders have given up 16 touchdowns to opposing running backs in just 15 games, and Tracy is the most likely player to score first.
This number is likely to move once Brock Bowers being shut down is fully reflected in the market, but in an indoor matchup against the Giants, there’s value on backing the new TE1 at +300 or better. Michael Mayer steps into a featured role in an offense that relies heavily on tight ends. He’s a former second-round pick and already had meaningful usage even with Bowers active. Last week against Houston, Las Vegas ran two-tight-end sets on more than 50% of its snaps, and Mayer still ran routes on 58% of passing plays. With Bowers out, that route share could climb toward 90%, putting Mayer in line for five to eight targets. At that usage, this price won’t last long.