New York Giants

Picks

New York ranks 30th in PFF run defense grade, 32nd in run defense DVOA and has surrendered the highest EPA per rush, while Monangai is churning out yards in chunks the past three weeks with 6.1 yards per for 281 total. Sure, D'Andre Swift (groin) is expected to return Sunday, but this Monangai number is still far too low -- especially considering the rookie could see the lionshare of touches.

Williams has averaged a respectable 4.6 yards per carry and has skyrocketed over this total in consecutive games for 77 total rushing yards on just eight totes. The Giants have also been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks with the fourth-most rushing attempts for the fifth-most yards surrendered this season. Additionally, New York has allowed an opposing QB to rush for 17 or more yards in six of nine games.

Williams is coming off back-to-back 280-yard games but there several reasons to fade him on his passing yards in Wk 10. Bears coach Ben Johnson loves to run the ball, so expect him to lean on his surging ground game against a Giants D that is significantly worse against the run than the pass. One thing this Giants D can do is rush the passer and Williams struggles when he feels the heat. He has a passing grade of 81.2 when kept clean in the pocket per PFF but that number plummets to 46.2 under pressure. In addition, there's a 65% chance of rain with winds swirling at 20 mph at Soldier Field on Sunday, which should neuter the aerial attacks of both teams.

The weather looks rough, but Devin Singletary’s touchdown price at +275 makes things a bit brighter. Last week, Singletary led the backfield in snaps, routes, carries, and red-zone work. Despite that, his TD odds are longer than Tyrone Tracy’s at +155 in a game that should feature plenty of running with heavy wind and rain or snow. The weather knocks this play down slightly, but with the Bears thin at receiver, Singletary is at worst the 1B to Tracy’s 1A in a favorable rushing matchup where the Giants could be playing with a neutral game script.

Kyle Monangai broke out as the Bears’ RB1 last week, totaling 194 all-purpose yards, and he’ll torch a Giants defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game. With De’Andre Swift remaining questionable for Sunday’s matchup, I’m bullish on the rookie breaking out in the red zone.