Minnesota Vikings

4th in NFC North (5 - 8 - 0)

Next Game

MINMinnesota Minnesota
at
Dallas DALDallas
Sun, Dec 14 20:20 ET

MIN @ DAL Picks

NFL Picks
Spread
Minnesota Vikings logo MIN +6.5 (-115)
Best Odds
+5.5 -105 Caesars
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
+5.5  -108
These are quick bet odds
+5.5  -110
+6.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
+5.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
+5.5  -105
These are quick bet odds

This point spread has dropped to Dallas -5.5 at most books, but FanDuel is still giving the Vikings at +6.5 – offering a half-point hook on the other side of the key number for a little extra vig. Minnesota proved it’s still playing for something in last weekend’s squash of the Washington Commanders, putting forth perhaps its most complete football game of the entire season. Dallas has some injuries on the offense and this Vikings defense has returned to form with a disruptive pass rush. Minnesota is a Top 10 D in EPA since Week 9 and this spread feels too big considering how bad the Cowboys defense can be.

Touchdowns
JM Jordan Mason o0.5 Touchdowns (+205)
Best Odds
o0.5 +220 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
o0.5  +200
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +175
o0.5  +220
These are quick bet odds
o0.5  +220
o0.5  +215
These are quick bet odds

Aaron Jones is +155, but I'd rather have Jordan Mason, who had 11 carries last week and got the red-zone role vs. Washington. He finished that game with five carries inside the 20-yard line, which tied for the third most by any RB in Week 14. Jones has also been dealing with injuries and inefficiency, which might open the door for more work for Mason. If JJ McCarthy can build on his Week 14 performance, Minnesota could flirt with 24 points in Dallas, where everyone scores. Mason will have a big role on Sunday night for an offense that wants to run the ball. 

Total
Minnesota Vikings logo Dallas Cowboys logo o47.5 (-105)
Best Odds
o47.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 4 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
o48.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -110
o47.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o47.5  -113
These are quick bet odds

The Vikings have the offensive weapons in place for quarterback J.J. McCarthy to put points on the board, and the Cowboys have averaged 29.5 points per game across the past four since their Week 10 bye. Of course, the Dallas defense has also allowed a healthy 27.3 points per and hit the Over in three of four. Minny played a pair of tough defenses -- the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks -- on the road prior to putting up 31 points on the Washington Commanders in Week 14, and I expect the Vikings to do their part in pushing this total Over the number in against another soft stop unit in Week 15.

Receptions Made
Jake Ferguson logo
Jake Ferguson o4.5 Receptions Made (-110)
Projection 5.71 (Over)
Best Odds
o4.5 -110 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o4.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o4.5  -110
o4.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o4.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o4.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Jake Ferguson's 5.7 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.1 rate.
-110 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Passing Completions
J.J. McCarthy logo
J.J. McCarthy o18.5 Passing Completions (+108)
Projection 20.77 (Over)
Best Odds
o17.5 -135 bet365
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o18.5  -106
These are quick bet odds
o17.5  -135
o18.5  +108
These are quick bet odds
o17.5  -140
These are quick bet odds
o18.5  +100
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.
-135 at bet365
Passing Attempts
J.J. McCarthy logo
J.J. McCarthy o29.5 Passing Attempts (-102)
Projection 33.26 (Over)
Best Odds
o28.5 -128 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
o29.5  -102
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -110
o28.5  -128
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -105
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -103
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.
-128 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
J.J. McCarthy logo
J.J. McCarthy o192.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 234.58 (Over)
Best Odds
o189.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o194.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o192.5  -110
o193.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o189.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o194.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a colossal 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the league.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Passing Yards
Dak Prescott logo
Dak Prescott o265.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 286.83 (Over)
Best Odds
o264.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o265.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o265.5  -110
o264.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o265.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o264.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Dak Prescott's 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a noteworthy improvement in his throwing ability over last year's 244.0 mark.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Interceptions Thrown
Dak Prescott logo
Dak Prescott u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+105)
Projection 0.43 (Under)
Best Odds
u0.5 +105 bet365
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u0.5  +103
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  +105
u0.5  -104
u0.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
u0.5  -103
A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.. Opposing teams have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.. The Dallas offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
+105 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Jake Ferguson logo
Jake Ferguson o35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 48.48 (Over)
Best Odds
o34.5 -116 DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o34.5  -116
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -110
o35.5  -114
o35.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o35.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%).
-116 at DraftKings
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson logo
Justin Jefferson o62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 77.38 (Over)
Best Odds
o59.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o62.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o62.5  -110
o62.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o59.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o61.5  -127
These are quick bet odds
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Javonte Williams logo
Javonte Williams o10.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 14.47 (Over)
Best Odds
o10.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o10.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -110
 -
o10.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Javonte Williams's 57.4% Route Participation% this year indicates a material boost in his passing attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson logo
T.J. Hockenson o25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 31.19 (Over)
Best Odds
o24.5 -114 FanDuel
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o25.5  -113
These are quick bet odds
o25.5  -110
o24.5  -114
o25.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o25.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -6-point underdog in this game.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.. In this game, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.
-114 at FanDuel

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Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
Spread

62% picking Dallas

38%
62%

Total Picks MIN 261, DAL 429

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

64% picking Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over

64%
36%

Total PicksMIN 277, DAL 158

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104

Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
Total

'twobwin' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.5)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'twobwin' is picking Minnesota to cover (+5.5)

twobwin is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +6750 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Spread

'hudsoncty3344' is picking Dallas to cover (-7.5)

hudsoncty3344 is #10 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (6-6-0) and +4150 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'hudsoncty3344' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Under (47.5)

hudsoncty3344 is #10 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (6-6-0) and +4150 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Total

'peachiee2023' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.0)

peachiee2023 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +6200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'peachiee2023' is picking Minnesota to cover (+7.5)

peachiee2023 is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +6200 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Spread

'Seawep95' is picking Dallas to cover (-7.5)

Seawep95 is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'Seawep95' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Under (47.5)

Seawep95 is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Total

'SUNIN65' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Under (47.0)

SUNIN65 is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'SUNIN65' is picking Dallas to cover (-7.0)

SUNIN65 is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'KRU' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.0)

KRU is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'KRU' is picking Minnesota to cover (+7.5)

KRU is #5 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'chickenhawk3233' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.5)

chickenhawk3233 is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (9-4-0) and +5650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Total

'ChOmP' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Under (47.5)

ChOmP is #7 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (5-4-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'ChOmP' is picking Minnesota to cover (+5.5)

ChOmP is #7 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (5-4-0) and +4250 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'patelnydevil289' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.0)

patelnydevil289 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Spread

'patelnydevil289' is picking Minnesota to cover (+7.5)

patelnydevil289 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +5250 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Spread

'greyford' is picking Minnesota to cover (+7.5)

greyford is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-6-0) and +5150 units on the season.

Spread
MIN
DAL
Spread
+6.5 -126
-5.5 -104
Total

'greyford' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Over (47.0)

greyford is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (6-6-0) and +5150 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104
Total

'anibalbas' picks Minnesota vs Dallas to go Under (47.5)

anibalbas is #9 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (8-4-0) and +4200 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
47.5 -104
47.5 -104

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