Minnesota Vikings

1st in NFC North (2 - 0 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Sep 27 16:05 ET

MIN @ TB Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Yards
Kyler Murray logo Kyler Murray u199.5 Passing Yards (+114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

Murray is expected to return under center after Carson Wentz guided Minnesota to a pair of victories in his absence. Murray managed just 11 snaps in the season opener before exiting with a concussion, and his return comes against a challenging Buccaneers defense that ranks 11th in total defense. I'm giving this defense the benefit of the doubt to shut down a quarterback returning from concussion, and coming off the worst season of his career.

Anytime Touchdown
Bucky Irving logo Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes: +146)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

Bucky's red-zone usage alone should make you want to invest in him to score against the Vikings. Minnesota is coughing up 100 yards per game on the ground, and when you add in Irving's volume both as a runner and pass-catcher out of the backfield, it's the perfect storm for him hitting pay dirt for the second time this season.

Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail TB +1.5 (-106)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat. Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass. Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after having his Vikings debut cut short due to a concussion in Week 1. Murray hasn’t been great against blitzes during this career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt. We’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.

Total
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail u42.5 (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

We're seeing two mediocre offenses against two top-10 defenses in Week 3. The Vikings have had to play mistake-free football on both sides of the ball - their defense has allowed an average of just 12.5 points per game as a result. It's also one of the best red-zone defenses this year, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20. With positive regression looming for the Bucs' defense against Murray and Co. I'm projecting this total to close closer to 40.5.

Spread
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail TB +1.5 (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are better than their 0-2 record indicates, and it's put-up-or-shut-up time against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 if they want to win a weak NFC South. It's probably a welcome sight that Kyler Murray will likely get the start, with Carson Wentz leading the Vikings to two wins in his absence. Murray played just 11 snaps in the team's opener before leaving with a concussion, and now draws a difficult matchup against a top-10 defense. Baker Mayfield hasn't gotten going this year yet (albeit, he was playing in rain in Week 2), but the offense has too much talent surrounding him to lay low for one more week. I'm expecting a bigger breakout in what should finally be a sunny day in Tampa.

3 LEG PARLAY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB
Moneyline
Kyler Murray profile picture
Kyler Murray u199.5 Passing Yards
Passing Yards
Bucky Irving profile picture
Bucky Irving Score a Touchdown (Yes)
Anytime Touchdown
Bet now
Pick made: 4 hours ago
Dustin Saracini logo
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst

The Buccaneers are in a great spot to right the ship against a leaky Minnesota defense and a quarterback making his first start off a concussion. And if the Bucs are scoring, you better believe Bucky Irving is going to play a part. Irving is getting 75% of the carries inside the 20 and continues to be the workhorse, totaling 36 touches across the first two weeks of the season.

Passing Yards
Kyler Murray logo
Kyler Murray u209.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 197.48 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.
Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield o210.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 224.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Rushing Yards
Kyler Murray logo
Kyler Murray o21.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Projection 33.09 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 43 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to accumulate 6.6 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific total of 20.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray places among the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.
Rushing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo
Baker Mayfield o15.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 20.86 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. After making up 10.3% of his offense's run game usage last year, Baker Mayfield has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 18.2%.. Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Aaron Jones Sr. o56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 64.96 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to accrue 17.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.. While Aaron Jones has accounted for 52.1% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Minnesota's ground game in this contest at 34.1%.. Aaron Jones has picked up 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (76th percentile).
Rushing Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 61.5 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).
Receiving Yards
Bucky Irving logo
Bucky Irving o14.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 21.78 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 1.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in football.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Receiving Yards
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Aaron Jones Sr. o13.5 Receiving Yards (-108)
Projection 16.92 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to total 3.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.. With an extraordinary 11.8% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.. Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with an impressive 1.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Since the start of last season, the porous Buccaneers defense has conceded a staggering 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 8.91 yards.
Receiving Yards
Emeka Egbuka logo
Emeka Egbuka o45.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Projection 54.53 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 35 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the deficient Minnesota Vikings defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a whopping 0.80 YAC.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Receiving Yards
Cade Otton logo
Cade Otton o25.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
Projection 30.98 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With an exceptional 86.5% Route% (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Cade Otton to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.. When talking about air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 25.0 per game.. With a remarkable 32.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton places among the top pass-catching tight ends in football.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

47% picking Minnesota

47%
53%

Total Picks MIN 393, TB 451

Spread
MIN
TB
Total

48% picking Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Under

52%
48%

Total PicksMIN 261, TB 242

Total
Over
Under

MIN @ TB · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB +1.5 spread
-0.80 PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB +1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.80 PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.11% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -109
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 42.5 Total
41.27 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

41.27 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u43.0 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u209.5 Passing Yards
197.48 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
22.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u209.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

197.48 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
22.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u209.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards
224.59 OVER PROJECTION
+14.1 DIFFERENCE
22.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

224.59 OVER PROJECTION
+14.1 DIFFERENCE
22.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o210.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
33.09 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
26.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

33.09 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
26.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to accumulate 6.6 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific total of 20.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray places among the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

o20.5 -111
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
24.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
24.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. After making up 10.3% of his offense's run game usage last year, Baker Mayfield has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 18.2%.. Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o15.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
64.96 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
23.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

64.96 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
23.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to accrue 17.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.. While Aaron Jones has accounted for 52.1% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Minnesota's ground game in this contest at 34.1%.. Aaron Jones has picked up 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (76th percentile).

o56.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards
61.50 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.50 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o55.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards
21.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

21.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 1.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in football.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o13.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.92 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
23.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

16.92 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
23.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to total 3.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.. With an extraordinary 11.8% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.. Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with an impressive 1.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Since the start of last season, the porous Buccaneers defense has conceded a staggering 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 8.91 yards.

o12.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
54.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the deficient Minnesota Vikings defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a whopping 0.80 YAC.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o45.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
30.98 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.98 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With an exceptional 86.5% Route% (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Cade Otton to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.. When talking about air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 25.0 per game.. With a remarkable 32.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton places among the top pass-catching tight ends in football.

o25.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards
30.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 81.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.. This week, T.J. Hockenson is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 78th percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.. T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends since the start of last season with a colossal 9.3% of his team's air yards accumulated.. T.J. Hockenson's 90.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 79.4% mark.. Since the start of last season, the weak Buccaneers defense has been gouged for a staggering 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-worst in the league.

o29.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
70.96 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

70.96 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.08% EV

ANALYSIS

With an extraordinary 96.5% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.. When it comes to air yards, Justin Jefferson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 84.0 per game.. Justin Jefferson comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 54.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.. Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 59.2% to 75.0%.

o67.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 120.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (62.3%).

u5.5 +120
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.79 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.79 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.36% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o2.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o14.5 -114
Caesars logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u30.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.98 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
15.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.98 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
15.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o19.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
18.31 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
12.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.31 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
12.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u19.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.51% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Since the start of last season, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a whopping 1.74 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

+400
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+650
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Justin Jefferson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 84.0 per game.. Justin Jefferson's 76.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for WRs.. Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 59.2% to 75.0%.

+160
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+140
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends since the start of last season with a colossal 9.3% of his team's air yards accumulated.. T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 29.9 mark since the start of last season.. T.J. Hockenson's 90.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 79.4% mark.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Buccaneers pass defense has conceded a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

+330
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.23% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 67.5% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with an impressive 1.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Aaron Jones's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for RBs.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.5%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (89.5%).. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league to running backs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

-110
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With a top-tier 15.4% Red Zone Target Rate (80th percentile) this year, Cade Otton places as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. When talking about air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 25.0 per game.. Cade Otton rates in the 78th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 29.8 mark since the start of last season.

+410
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. Tampa Bay's defense ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season when it comes to forcing interceptions, notching 0.79 per game.

u0.5 +108
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the projection model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to throw 31.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.9 per game) since the start of last season.

u0.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB +1.5 spread
-0.80 PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
TB +1.5 spread

PROJECTION

-0.80 PROJECTION
-2.3 DIFFERENCE
16.11% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

+1.5 -109
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 42.5 Total
41.27 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Hard Rock Bet
Best Odds
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
Under 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

41.27 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
14.17% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

u43.0 -115
Hard Rock Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u209.5 Passing Yards
197.48 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
22.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u209.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

197.48 UNDER PROJECTION
-12.0 DIFFERENCE
22.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u209.5 -110
theScore Bet logo
PASSING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards
224.59 OVER PROJECTION
+14.1 DIFFERENCE
22.26% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o210.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

224.59 OVER PROJECTION
+14.1 DIFFERENCE
22.26% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o210.5 -115
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards
33.09 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
26.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) o21.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

33.09 OVER PROJECTION
+11.6 DIFFERENCE
26.36% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. The predictive model expects Kyler Murray to accumulate 6.6 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With a terrific total of 20.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (82nd percentile), Kyler Murray places among the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.

o20.5 -111
BetMGM logo
RUSHING YARDS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards
20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
24.99% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o15.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.86 OVER PROJECTION
+5.4 DIFFERENCE
24.99% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. After making up 10.3% of his offense's run game usage last year, Baker Mayfield has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 18.2%.. Baker Mayfield grades out as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.19 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.

o15.5 -113
BetRivers logo
RUSHING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards
64.96 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
23.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o56.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

64.96 OVER PROJECTION
+8.5 DIFFERENCE
23.18% EV

ANALYSIS

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to accrue 17.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.. While Aaron Jones has accounted for 52.1% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Minnesota's ground game in this contest at 34.1%.. Aaron Jones has picked up 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (76th percentile).

o56.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards
61.50 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o55.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

61.50 OVER PROJECTION
+6.0 DIFFERENCE
23.1% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o55.5 -115
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards
21.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

21.78 OVER PROJECTION
+7.3 DIFFERENCE
25.83% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 1.30 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in football.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o13.5 -118
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
16.92 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
23.71% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

16.92 OVER PROJECTION
+3.4 DIFFERENCE
23.71% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to total 3.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.. With an extraordinary 11.8% Target Rate (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Aaron Jones places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the NFL.. Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with an impressive 1.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Since the start of last season, the porous Buccaneers defense has conceded a staggering 42.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 2nd-most in the NFL.. Since the start of last season, the porous Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 8.91 yards.

o12.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards
54.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) o45.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

54.53 OVER PROJECTION
+9.0 DIFFERENCE
23.57% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the deficient Minnesota Vikings defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a whopping 0.80 YAC.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o45.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards
30.98 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) o25.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.98 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
22.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With an exceptional 86.5% Route% (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton rates among the TEs with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Cade Otton to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.. When talking about air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 25.0 per game.. With a remarkable 32.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Cade Otton places among the top pass-catching tight ends in football.

o25.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards
30.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) o29.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

30.48 OVER PROJECTION
+1.0 DIFFERENCE
12.98% EV

ANALYSIS

T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 81.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile among TEs.. This week, T.J. Hockenson is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 78th percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.. T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends since the start of last season with a colossal 9.3% of his team's air yards accumulated.. T.J. Hockenson's 90.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 79.4% mark.. Since the start of last season, the weak Buccaneers defense has been gouged for a staggering 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-worst in the league.

o29.5 -115
bet365 logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards
70.96 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) o69.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

70.96 OVER PROJECTION
+1.5 DIFFERENCE
11.08% EV

ANALYSIS

With an extraordinary 96.5% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. The model projects Justin Jefferson to accumulate 9.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.. When it comes to air yards, Justin Jefferson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 84.0 per game.. Justin Jefferson comes in as one of the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 54.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.. Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 59.2% to 75.0%.

o67.5 -114
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.68% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.36 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
14.68% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 120.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (62.3%).

u5.5 +120
bet365 logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.79 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.36% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.79 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
2.36% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o2.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
14.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds Caesars
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

14.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
9.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).

o14.5 -114
Caesars logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts
28.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u30.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

28.67 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.8 DIFFERENCE
14.15% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u30.5 -110
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions
20.98 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
15.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) o20.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

20.98 OVER PROJECTION
+0.5 DIFFERENCE
15.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

o19.5 -125
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions
18.31 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
12.35% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

18.31 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.2 DIFFERENCE
12.35% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. In this week's contest, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 30.7.

u19.5 -115
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.51% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.28 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
21.51% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Since the start of last season, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a whopping 1.74 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 8th-biggest rate in the NFL.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been fantastic since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

+400
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.18 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
20.95% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Baker Mayfield's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant boost in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% mark.. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+650
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Justin Jefferson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
J. Jefferson (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.51 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
16.8% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Justin Jefferson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Justin Jefferson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 84.0 per game.. Justin Jefferson's 76.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for WRs.. Justin Jefferson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 59.2% to 75.0%.

+160
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Bucky Irving logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Irving (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
11.67% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+140
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
T.J. Hockenson logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
T. Hockenson (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.25 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends since the start of last season with a colossal 9.3% of his team's air yards accumulated.. T.J. Hockenson ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 29.9 mark since the start of last season.. T.J. Hockenson's 90.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a remarkable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 79.4% mark.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Buccaneers pass defense has conceded a whopping 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

+330
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.23% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Emeka Egbuka logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
E. Egbuka (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.31 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-1.23% EV

ANALYSIS

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 67.5% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. The Vikings defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

+250
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Aaron Jones Sr. logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
A. Jones Sr. (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-5.73% EV

ANALYSIS

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Vikings.. Aaron Jones grades out in the 83rd percentile among running backs this year with an impressive 1.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Aaron Jones's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for RBs.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.5%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (89.5%).. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league to running backs: 0.21 per game since the start of last season.

-110
theScore Bet logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.21% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Cade Otton logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
C. Otton (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-6.21% EV

ANALYSIS

The Buccaneers have been the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 77.3% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. With a top-tier 15.4% Red Zone Target Rate (80th percentile) this year, Cade Otton places as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.. When talking about air yards, Cade Otton grades out in the lofty 79th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 25.0 per game.. Cade Otton rates in the 78th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 29.8 mark since the start of last season.

+410
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Kyler Murray logo
Minnesota Vikings image thumbnail
K. Murray (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.40 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
22.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The model projects the Vikings as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.6 per game on average).. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this game.. Tampa Bay's defense ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season when it comes to forcing interceptions, notching 0.79 per game.

u0.5 +108
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Baker Mayfield logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers image thumbnail
B. Mayfield (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.41 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.1 DIFFERENCE
17.44% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the projection model to run only 60.4 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to throw 31.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.9 per game) since the start of last season.

u0.5 -105
theScore Bet logo

Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'KRU' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-1.5)

KRU is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'KRU' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (44.5)

KRU is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
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'CygXanadu' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

CygXanadu is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
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'CygXanadu' is picking Minnesota to cover (-1.5)

CygXanadu is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'ljsjr' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

ljsjr is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'ljsjr' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

ljsjr is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Tazer6' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-1.5)

Tazer6 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Tazer6' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (44.5)

Tazer6 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'pgese' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

pgese is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'pgese' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

pgese is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'kozman625' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

kozman625 is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Kozman06' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

Kozman06 is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Kozman06' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

Kozman06 is #3 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'kozman625' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

kozman625 is #3 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'KYMIKE50' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+1.5)

KYMIKE50 is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'casperwaits' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Under (42.5)

casperwaits is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
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'casperwaits' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

casperwaits is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Jerrybook' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-1.5)

Jerrybook is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'Jerrybook' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (44.5)

Jerrybook is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'raiderroller' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+1.5)

raiderroller is #7 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'd33jay86' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-1.5)

d33jay86 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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'd33jay86' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

d33jay86 is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
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'kowalabear' picks Minnesota vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

kowalabear is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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Over
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'kowalabear' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (+2.5)

kowalabear is #9 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2000 units on the season.

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