Minnesota Vikings

Picks

I’m taking Giants +2.5 because I don’t see much separation between these teams, Minnesota’s third-down and turnover volatility plays worse on the road, and New York has a realistic path to stay on script with quick-game and play-action.

The Vikings have been ineffective running the ball near the goal line, to the point that C.J. Ham handled the one-yard touchdown carry last week. In fact, J.J. McCarthy matched all Vikings running backs combined in carries inside the 10 and has now scored two rushing touchdowns across his six starts. This is also an offense that loves to pass in the red zone. He’s in a strong spot to add to that total against the Giants, who allow the most quarterback rushing yards per game and have already surrendered four QB rushing touchdowns this season. Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards last week, and Caleb Williams went for eight carries, 63 yards, and a score four games ago. Those are clean comps for McCarthy’s rushing upside on Sunday. Look for his Over 18.5 rushing yards, as well. I'm playing this to +320/+330.

Each of the last four Giants games have gone Over the total. 

The Giants are 0-3 against the spread this season in games where they were either favored or underdogs by less than three points.

The Giants ranked 29th in defensive DVOA before serving 29 points on a platter to the lowly Washington Commanders in Week 15, and New York has now surrendered the third-most yards and fourth-highest EPA per play while also allowing the fourth-most points per game to go along with a miserable 2-11 record. Of course, Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy has also aired it out for 8.8 yards per attempt and the fourth-highest EPA+COPE composite for consecutive outright and against-the-spread wins the past two weeks.

The Vikings defense did enough to hold off the high-powered Cowboys on Sunday night but get a much easier opponent in the Giants offense in Week 16. Minnesota's blitz-heavy schemes and zone defense will get rookie Jaxon Dart fits. Minnesota QB J.J. McCarthy looks like he's finally healthy and settled into this playbook. The Giants are the softest defense he's faced in a long time.