Minnesota Vikings

Picks

Aaron Jones just came off the IR but after being limited in practice on Tuesday, I don't see him making much of an impact on a short week. That means one more game with Jordan Mason leading the backfield. Mason has rushed for more than 55 yards in three of his last four games — including a 116-yard performance against the Bengals in Week 3. The Bolts are 27th in the league in defensive rush EPA and have surrendered 139.8 yards per game on the ground over their last five contests. 

McConkey emerged as the Chargers No. 1 WR last season, racking up 106.8 receiving yards per game over his final eight regular season and playoff contests. He saw a slight downtick in his production at the start of this year due to L.A. having other competent receivers but this is a matchup where he'll likely see a ton of targets. The Vikings do a good at defending downfield passes but can be carved up in the slot. Their blitz-happy defense tends to forces opposing QBs to throw quick slants and shorter passes which are areas where McConkey thrives. McConkey had seven receptions for 100 yards against Miami in Week 6 before reeling in nine of a team-high 15 targets for 67 yards last week.

With their ground game in shambles, expect the Chargers offense to be extremely pass heavy. Thankfully they have the weapons to do that. Herbert is surrounded by a trio of talented WRs while rookie TE Oronde Gadsden has broken out over the last two weeks. Herbert completed 37-of-55 passes for 420 yards on Sunday and he faces a Vikings defense that surrendered 326 passing yards on just 23 pass attempts in Week 7. The Vikes blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL and Herbert excels against the blitz. According to PFF, Herbert had the fourth-best passing grade (87.4) against the blitz last year and he's fourth in that metric (83.9) this year.

McConkey drew 15 targets against the Colts for nine catches and 67 yards – his busiest day on the season. And against this aggressive blitz-heavy Vikings pass rush, McConkey is going to be the pressure release for Justin Herbert, who does a good job getting the ball out quickly vs. the blitz. The Vikings don’t give up much deep but they do get picked apart by slot receivers underneath. McConkey lined up in the slot 48 times in Week 7. He had big days against another blitz-heavy D’s in Miami and Kansas City and Week 8 projections sit north of 60 yards for TNF. 

The Chargers' defense is flying under the radar as one of the worst in the NFL. Over their last three games against the Commanders, Dolphins and Colts, with two of those games at home, they rank dead-last in the NFL in yards per play allowed while allowing an average of 30.7 points per game. The Vikings have reached the 21-point mark in five of their six games, including in all four Carson Wentz starts.