Minnesota Vikings
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4th in NFC North (4 - 4 - 0)

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BALBaltimore

MINMinnesota

Sun, Nov 9 13:00 ET

BAL @ MIN Picks

NFL Picks

Score a Touchdown

Isaiah Likely Score a Touchdown (Yes: +325)

Best Odds

+325

Pick made: 3 hours ago

+270

+325

+250

+260

I’m taking Isaiah Likely at +325 over Mark Andrews at +175, and the price is a big part of it, but not everything. Likely played more snaps and saw more targets and receptions last week, while Andrews found the end zone twice—driving up his odds this week. All three Baltimore tight ends saw red-zone looks, and with an indoor matchup against a top-five matchup versus the position, this is a solid spot to target for a Week 10 touchdown. I’d play it down to +290.

Spread

MIN +4.5 (-115)

Best Odds

+3.5 -102

Pick made: yesterday

+3.5 -102

+4.0 -110

+4.5 -114

+4.0 -110

+4.0 -109

The Vikings’ aggressive blitz-heavy approach was getting burned in the first half of the schedule. However, Brian Flores’ crew came for Jared Goff’s soul last Sunday, scoring five sacks, 18 pressures and allotting the Lions’ QB less than 2.4 seconds with the ball before ending up on his head. McCarthy breathed life into this Vikings offense in his first game back since Week 2. He passed for two touchdowns and ran one in himself, giving Minnesota its best offensive day in five weeks. That builds momentum for this matchup with a Baltimore defense that sits near the bottom of the league in most advanced metrics. This stop unit is improving – giving up a combined 22 points the past two games – but still budged for more than 700 total yards in those outings.

Receptions Made

Zay Flowers o5.5 Receptions Made (+115)

Projection 6.46 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 +115

Pick made: 41 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o5.5 +115

The model projects the Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 9.7 targets.. With a remarkable 30.4% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.. With an outstanding 5.1 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks as one of the leading pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

+115 at BetMGM

Passing Yards

J.J. McCarthy o210.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 266.85 (Over)

Best Odds

o205.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o210.5 -112

o205.5 -114

o209.5 -115

o207.5 -117

A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -4-point underdog in this game.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.5% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.. The Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.

-114 at FanDuel

Passing Yards

Lamar Jackson o220.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Projection 254.16 (Over)

Best Odds

o220.5 -112

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o220.5 -112

o221.5 -114

o226.5 -115

o223.5 -114

The model projects the Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 67.6% to 72.6%.. With an excellent 9.07 adjusted yards-per-target (92nd percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson rates as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL.. The Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 9th-worst CB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

-112 at DraftKings

Interceptions Thrown

J.J. McCarthy u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+115)

Projection 0.43 (Under)

Best Odds

u0.5 +115

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +115

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

+115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

T.J. Hockenson o28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Projection 39.99 (Over)

Best Odds

o28.5 -110

Pick made: 41 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o28.5 -110

-110 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers o64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 84.07 (Over)

Best Odds

o64.5 -115

Pick made: 41 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o64.5 -115

The model projects the Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 9.7 targets.. With a remarkable 30.4% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.. With a remarkable 57.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (87th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates as one of the leading WRs in the game in football.

-115 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Mark Andrews o28.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Projection 38.93 (Over)

Best Odds

o28.5 -118

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o28.5 -118

The model projects the Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Mark Andrews to accrue 4.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among TEs.. Mark Andrews's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 84th percentile for tight ends.. With an excellent 81.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (78th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews places among the best possession receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.

-118 at BetMGM

Receiving Yards

Justin Jefferson o77.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Projection 91.83 (Over)

Best Odds

o77.5 -115

Pick made: 41 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o77.5 -115

-115 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

J.J. McCarthy o16.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Projection 22.48 (Over)

Best Odds

o16.5 -120

Pick made: 41 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o16.5 -120

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the porous Baltimore Ravens run defense has allowed a staggering 129.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 8th-worst in football.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's group of DEs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league. in the league.

-120 at BetMGM

Rushing Yards

Lamar Jackson o37.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 41.11 (Over)

Best Odds

o37.5 -115

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

o37.5 -115

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points.. The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 40.8% run rate.. The model projects the Ravens to call the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. In this game, Lamar Jackson is predicted by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 4th-most carries out of all QBs with 7.6. . Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, taking on 23.4% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

-115 at BetMGM

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Spread

64% picking Baltimore

64% 64%

36% 36%

Total Picks BAL 348, MIN 195

Spread

BAL

MIN

Spread

-3.5 -130

+4.5 -112

Total

61% picking Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Over

61% 61%

39% 39%

Total PicksBAL 201, MIN 130

Total

Over

Under

Total

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Consensus Picks

64% picking Baltimore

61% picking Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Over

Top User Picks

'SUNIN65' is picking Baltimore to cover (-3.5)

'SUNIN65' picks Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Over (46.5)

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'Wegowinners' picks Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Over (48.0)

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'Kowalabear1994' picks Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Over (48.0)

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'Noonball' picks Baltimore vs Minnesota to go Under (46.5)

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