Houston Texans

3rd in AFC South (1 - 4 - 0)

Next Game

Sun, Oct 18 09:30 ET

HOU @ JAC Picks

NFL Picks
Anytime Touchdown
Bhayshul Tuten logo Bhayshul Tuten Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Tuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating. He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year. With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns in 2026, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.

Rushing Attempts
Woody Marks logo Woody Marks o14.5 Rushing Attempts (-111)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Marks to handle 15 or more carries is in play to 56% because he's set for a lead role in the Houston backfield after rushing for a respectable 4.1 yards per carry for 62 total in Week 5, and David Montgomery (groin) sidelined. I’m also expecting the Houston offense to look to attack on the ground more this week to help mitigate a Jacksonville pass rush ranking seventh in pressure percentage. Houston has the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback when pressured, and QB C.J. Stroud has a 46.2 completion percentage for just 4.8 yards per attempt under pressure, after all.

Receiving Yards
Bhayshul Tuten logo Bhayshul Tuten o7.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Tuten recording nine or more receiving yards is in play to -130. The Texans have surrendered 15 receptions for 51 yards to running backs the past two weeks, and Tuten has hit double-digit receiving yards in four of five games with an elite 11.8 yards after contact per reception and 90% catch rate. 

Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence logo Trevor Lawrence o12.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Trevor Lawrence just lost his blindside protector and faces a nasty Texans pass rush. The Jaguars QB is going to have to use his legs to stay alive and keep the chains moving. He’s rushed for 25 yards in two of his last three games and his rushing yards forecasts range from 12 to 23 yards with my number at 17.8 rushing yards. He had 35 yards rushing in a matchup with Houston last season.

Anytime Touchdown
Brenton Strange logo Brenton Strange Score a Touchdown (Yes: +380)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis logo
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Houston defense is traveling to London and ranks in the bottom half in EPA/dropback. I hate how the Jaguars are calling plays near the goal line with their running backs, so I'll happily back Brenton Strange at 4.8x with a fair price of 3.5x. He's seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks and is coming off two of the biggest games of his career. He failed to score in either outing but is getting red-zone snaps and is the No. 2 option in the passing game right now. Nobody seeing 6+ targets should be priced at 4.8x or longer for a TD.

Moneyline
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail JAC (-139)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I recommend the Jacksonville moneyline to -160 because this is a bad spot for Houston in this AFC South clash. Not only are the Texans heading to London for the waiting Jaguars, this is also the third road game in three weeks for Houston. Additionally, the Texans have faced the basement-dwelling Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans stop units over their past two games. The uptick in class is going to be too much for the Houston offense, with Jacksonville ranking third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and allowing the second-fewest points per drive

Spread
Houston Texans image thumbnail HOU +2.5 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Jason Logan logo
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

The Texans turn their attention to Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence, who won’t have LT Anton Harrison (knee) watching his blindside for the rest of the season. Lawrence was already feeling pressure at the 13th highest rate, taking 10 sacks and suffering 19 QB hits. Houston currently sits second in the league with 18 sacks and 11th in pressure rate per dropback, despite blitzing at the fourth lowest rate. That pressure from just the front four, including sack leader Will Anderson Jr., is Lawrence’s kryptonite. After five games, the Jags QB rates 10th among all passers at PFF when kept clean (91.2) but watches that measurement melt to 37th when under pressure (36.4). Lawrence’s completion rate sinks below 42% and he’s thrown two of his three interceptions while under duress.

Total
Houston Texans image thumbnail Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail u43.5 (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Texans and Jaguars rank ninth and third in defensive DVOA and fifth and seventh in defensive success rate. Houston is also travelling to London for its third road game in four weeks, and I’m expecting the offense to have trouble with the uptick in class after facing the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans the past two weeks. Similarly, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will have his hands full against a Houston pass rush with 10 sacks across their past three games.

3 LEG PARLAY
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
JAC
Moneyline
Trevor Lawrence profile picture
Trevor Lawrence o224.5 Passing Yards
Passing Yards
Woody Marks profile picture
Woody Marks o14.5 Rushing Attempts
Rushing Attempts
Bet now
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Neil Parker logo
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and allowing the second-fewest points per drive, and Houston has faced weak defenses in consecutive weeks and will be heading to London to play its third road game in four weeks. Lawrence has also thrown for a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt and 67.1 completion percentage while ranking adjusted EPA per play. Finally, Marks is set for a lead role with David Montgomery (groin) sidelined, and Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans praised the second-year back’s play and confirmed Marks would be heavily involved again this week.

Passing Yards
C.J. Stroud logo
C.J. Stroud u256.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Projection 237.85 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
Passing Yards
Trevor Lawrence logo
Trevor Lawrence o225.5 Passing Yards (-117)
Projection 232.91 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. Trevor Lawrence's passing effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.22 mark last year.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Rushing Yards
Woody Marks logo
Woody Marks o49.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
Projection 62 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
C.J. Stroud logo
C.J. Stroud o9.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 17.01 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
Trevor Lawrence logo
Trevor Lawrence o12.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 20.85 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. While Trevor Lawrence has earned 8.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 15.6%.. With an exceptional record of 2.45 yards-after-contact (77th percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the top running QBs in football this year.
Receiving Yards
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Bhayshul Tuten o9.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
Projection 15.02 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Receiving Yards
Woody Marks logo
Woody Marks o13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 20.02 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. This year, the poor Jaguars defense has conceded a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-worst in the league.
Receiving Yards
Dalton Schultz logo
Dalton Schultz o30.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 35.82 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Receiving Yards
Brenton Strange logo
Brenton Strange o36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 42.23 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 40.0 per game.. Brenton Strange's 47.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a significant gain in his pass-catching ability over last year's 35.0 rate.. The Texans pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Parker Washington logo
Parker Washington o59.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 66.59 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has been gouged for a staggering 172.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst in football.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

68% picking Jacksonville

32%
68%

Total Picks HOU 265, JAC 552

Spread
HOU
JAC
Total

44% picking Houston vs Jacksonville to go Under

56%
44%

Total PicksHOU 266, JAC 207

Total
Over
Under

HOU @ JAC · Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS BEST ODDS
SPREAD
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
JAC -2.5 spread
-4.21 PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
16.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
JAC -2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.21 PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
16.77% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-2.5 -108
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Houston Texans image thumbnail Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total
45.65 OVER PROJECTION
+3.2 DIFFERENCE
17.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

45.65 OVER PROJECTION
+3.2 DIFFERENCE
17.08% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o42.5 -108
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u256.5 Passing Yards
237.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-18.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u256.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

237.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-18.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u256.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING YARDS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards
232.91 OVER PROJECTION
+7.4 DIFFERENCE
22.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

232.91 OVER PROJECTION
+7.4 DIFFERENCE
22.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. Trevor Lawrence's passing effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.22 mark last year.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o224.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o49.5 Rushing Yards
62.00 OVER PROJECTION
+12.5 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o49.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

62.00 OVER PROJECTION
+12.5 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o45.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards
17.01 OVER PROJECTION
+7.5 DIFFERENCE
26.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.01 OVER PROJECTION
+7.5 DIFFERENCE
26.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o8.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards
20.85 OVER PROJECTION
+8.3 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.85 OVER PROJECTION
+8.3 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. While Trevor Lawrence has earned 8.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 15.6%.. With an exceptional record of 2.45 yards-after-contact (77th percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the top running QBs in football this year.

o10.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
68.19 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

68.19 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o60.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards
15.02 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

15.02 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o7.5 -120
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
20.02 OVER PROJECTION
+6.5 DIFFERENCE
25.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

20.02 OVER PROJECTION
+6.5 DIFFERENCE
25.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. This year, the poor Jaguars defense has conceded a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-worst in the league.

o13.5 -112
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RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards
35.82 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.82 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

o30.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
42.23 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.23 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 40.0 per game.. Brenton Strange's 47.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a significant gain in his pass-catching ability over last year's 35.0 rate.. The Texans pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

o34.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards
66.59 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
21.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

66.59 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
21.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has been gouged for a staggering 172.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst in football.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o59.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u5.5 +107
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.

u4.5 +100
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
6.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
6.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o2.5 -109
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RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
5.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
5.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz has been one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

o3.5 +112
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
2.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
2.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o1.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.69% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Brenton Strange's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 35.0.. With a stellar 3.5 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) this year, Brenton Strange rates among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o3.5 -139
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.39 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.39 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.67% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. While Trevor Lawrence has earned 8.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 15.6%.

o3.5 -102
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
3.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
13.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

3.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
13.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
16.00 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.00 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

u16.5 +106
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
15.28 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
8.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.28 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
8.79% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o14.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts
33.24 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
13.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.24 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
13.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o29.5 -235
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o35.5 Passing Attempts
35.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o35.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o35.5 -112
BetRivers logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions
21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u22.5 -125
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
19.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o19.5 -110
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.79% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the poor Texans defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.20 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst rate in football.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+185
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. With an elite 27.3% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places as one of the WRs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.

+185
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The model projects Brenton Strange to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this contest (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).. As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 40.0 per game.. Brenton Strange's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 35.0.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+350
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+140
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Opposing teams have run for the 5th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.60 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.

+138
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

+850
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. Trevor Lawrence has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 2.00 per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on Trevor Lawrence's stats page this year.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+410
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

+330
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.

u0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o0.5 +106
DraftKings logo
  • Proj. Diff: Low to High
  • Proj. Diff: High to Low
  • Proj. Rating: Low to High
  • Proj. Rating: High to Low
  • +EV: Low to High
  • +EV: High to Low
SPREAD
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
JAC -2.5 spread
-4.21 PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
16.77% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
JAC -2.5 spread

PROJECTION

-4.21 PROJECTION
-1.7 DIFFERENCE
16.77% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

-2.5 -108
BetRivers logo
TOTAL
Houston Texans image thumbnail Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total
45.65 OVER PROJECTION
+3.2 DIFFERENCE
17.08% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Houston Texans image thumbnail Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
Over 42.5 Total

PROJECTION

45.65 OVER PROJECTION
+3.2 DIFFERENCE
17.08% EV

ANALYSIS

There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.

o42.5 -108
BetMGM logo
PASSING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u256.5 Passing Yards
237.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-18.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u256.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

237.85 UNDER PROJECTION
-18.7 DIFFERENCE
24.6% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u256.5 -113
DraftKings logo
PASSING YARDS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards
232.91 OVER PROJECTION
+7.4 DIFFERENCE
22.76% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o225.5 Passing Yards

PROJECTION

232.91 OVER PROJECTION
+7.4 DIFFERENCE
22.76% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. Trevor Lawrence's passing effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.22 mark last year.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o224.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
RUSHING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o49.5 Rushing Yards
62.00 OVER PROJECTION
+12.5 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o49.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

62.00 OVER PROJECTION
+12.5 DIFFERENCE
26.44% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o45.5 -140
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards
17.01 OVER PROJECTION
+7.5 DIFFERENCE
26.16% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o9.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

17.01 OVER PROJECTION
+7.5 DIFFERENCE
26.16% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o8.5 -115
bet365 logo
RUSHING YARDS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards
20.85 OVER PROJECTION
+8.3 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o12.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

20.85 OVER PROJECTION
+8.3 DIFFERENCE
25.9% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. While Trevor Lawrence has earned 8.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 15.6%.. With an exceptional record of 2.45 yards-after-contact (77th percentile), Trevor Lawrence has been as one of the top running QBs in football this year.

o10.5 -150
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RUSHING YARDS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards
68.19 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds Fanatics Sportsbook
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o60.5 Rushing Yards

PROJECTION

68.19 OVER PROJECTION
+7.7 DIFFERENCE
13.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o60.5 -135
Fanatics Sportsbook logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards
15.02 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o9.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

15.02 OVER PROJECTION
+5.5 DIFFERENCE
26.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o7.5 -120
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards
20.02 OVER PROJECTION
+6.5 DIFFERENCE
25.24% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o13.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

20.02 OVER PROJECTION
+6.5 DIFFERENCE
25.24% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. This year, the poor Jaguars defense has conceded a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 9th-worst in the league.

o13.5 -112
BetRivers logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards
35.82 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.5% EV
Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o30.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

35.82 OVER PROJECTION
+5.3 DIFFERENCE
23.5% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz rates as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

o30.5 -114
FanDuel logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards
42.23 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.25% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o36.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

42.23 OVER PROJECTION
+5.7 DIFFERENCE
22.25% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 40.0 per game.. Brenton Strange's 47.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a significant gain in his pass-catching ability over last year's 35.0 rate.. The Texans pass defense has not been good when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.00 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.

o34.5 -130
theScore Bet logo
RECEIVING YARDS
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards
66.59 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
21.65% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards

PROJECTION

66.59 OVER PROJECTION
+7.1 DIFFERENCE
21.65% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the deficient Houston Texans defense has been gouged for a staggering 172.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst in football.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o59.5 -120
theScore Bet logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made
5.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) u5.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

5.03 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
18.13% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u5.5 +107
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made
4.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) u4.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
12.11% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.

u4.5 +100
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made
2.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
6.03% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o2.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.92 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
6.03% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o2.5 -109
BetRivers logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
5.19% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

3.71 OVER PROJECTION
+0.2 DIFFERENCE
5.19% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz has been one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 4.6 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

o3.5 +112
DraftKings logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
2.63% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) o1.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

2.12 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
2.63% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o1.5 -120
BetMGM logo
RECEPTIONS MADE
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.69% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) o3.5 Receptions Made

PROJECTION

4.14 OVER PROJECTION
+0.6 DIFFERENCE
1.69% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Brenton Strange to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Brenton Strange's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 35.0.. With a stellar 3.5 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) this year, Brenton Strange rates among the leading TE receiving threats in the league.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o3.5 -139
BetRivers logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.39 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.67% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o3.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

4.39 OVER PROJECTION
+0.9 DIFFERENCE
16.67% EV

ANALYSIS

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are predicted by the model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.. While Trevor Lawrence has earned 8.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Jacksonville's rushing attack this week at 15.6%.

o3.5 -102
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts
3.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
13.01% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o2.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

3.25 OVER PROJECTION
+0.7 DIFFERENCE
13.01% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o2.5 -120
bet365 logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts
16.00 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.39% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) u16.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

16.00 UNDER PROJECTION
-0.5 DIFFERENCE
12.39% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

u16.5 +106
FanDuel logo
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts
15.28 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
8.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds theScore Bet
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) o14.5 Rushing Attempts

PROJECTION

15.28 OVER PROJECTION
+0.8 DIFFERENCE
8.79% EV

ANALYSIS

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.

o14.5 -105
theScore Bet logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts
33.24 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
13.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o29.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

33.24 OVER PROJECTION
+3.7 DIFFERENCE
13.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

o29.5 -235
BetRivers logo
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o35.5 Passing Attempts
35.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.31% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o35.5 Passing Attempts

PROJECTION

35.64 OVER PROJECTION
+0.1 DIFFERENCE
3.31% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o35.5 -112
BetRivers logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions
21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) u22.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

21.16 UNDER PROJECTION
-1.3 DIFFERENCE
10.37% EV

ANALYSIS

The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.. With a feeble 60.8% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud rates as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL.. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a mere 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

u22.5 -125
BetMGM logo
PASSING COMPLETIONS
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions
19.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV
Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) o19.5 Passing Completions

PROJECTION

19.94 OVER PROJECTION
+0.4 DIFFERENCE
3.07% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

o19.5 -110
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.79% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Parker Washington logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
P. Washington (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.79% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This year, the poor Texans defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.20 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst rate in football.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+185
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Nico Collins logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
N. Collins (WR) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.47 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
18.04% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. With an elite 27.3% Red Zone Target Share (96th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places as one of the WRs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.

+185
BetRivers logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.8% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
Brenton Strange logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Strange (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.26 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
13.8% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The model projects Brenton Strange to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this contest (17.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).. As it relates to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a remarkable 40.0 per game.. Brenton Strange's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 35.0.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+350
bet365 logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Bhayshul Tuten logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
B. Tuten (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.48 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
10.32% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+140
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.7% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
Woody Marks logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
W. Marks (RB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.49 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.7% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Opposing teams have run for the 5th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.60 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.

+138
BetMGM logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.11 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
8.53% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

+850
DraftKings logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.18% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.17 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-9.18% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. Trevor Lawrence's throwing precision has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 60.5% to 67.5%.. Trevor Lawrence has been among the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 2.00 per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on Trevor Lawrence's stats page this year.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

+410
FanDuel logo
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.12% EV
Rating: Star rating: 1 out of 5
Best odds BetRivers
Best Odds
Dalton Schultz logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
D. Schultz (TE) Anytime Touchdown

PROJECTION

0.19 TDs PROJECTION
- DIFFERENCE
-14.12% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.. Dalton Schultz has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

+330
BetRivers logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.38% EV
Rating: Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
Trevor Lawrence logo
Jacksonville Jaguars image thumbnail
T. Lawrence (QB) u0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.46 PUSH PROJECTION
0.0 DIFFERENCE
16.38% EV

ANALYSIS

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (only 54.0 per game on average).. When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.

u0.5 +102
DraftKings logo
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.45% EV
Rating: Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
C.J. Stroud logo
Houston Texans image thumbnail
C. Stroud (QB) o0.5 Interceptions Thrown

PROJECTION

0.84 OVER PROJECTION
+0.3 DIFFERENCE
11.45% EV

ANALYSIS

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The Houston Texans have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.6 plays per game.. Our trusted projections expect C.J. Stroud to attempt 37.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most among all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in football.

o0.5 +106
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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

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'ghostriderjeff' is picking Houston to cover (+3.0)

ghostriderjeff is #2 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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'ghostriderjeff' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Under (42.5)

ghostriderjeff is #2 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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'Alexmaldonado' is picking Jacksonville to cover (-1.5)

Alexmaldonado is #3 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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'Alexmaldonado' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Over (42.5)

Alexmaldonado is #3 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.

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Over
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'Canole' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Over (42.5)

Canole is #3 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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Over
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'Canole' is picking Jacksonville to cover (-3.0)

Canole is #3 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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HOU
JAC
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'vicspics' is picking Jacksonville to cover (-3.0)

vicspics is #6 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.

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'flake' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Under (42.5)

flake is #7 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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'Vrock' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Under (42.5)

Vrock is #7 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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Over
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'Vrock' is picking Jacksonville to cover (-3.0)

Vrock is #7 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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HOU
JAC
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'flake' is picking Jacksonville to cover (-2.5)

flake is #7 on picking games that Jacksonville is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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HOU
JAC
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'Geothrogrrc' is picking Houston to cover (+3.0)

Geothrogrrc is #9 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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HOU
JAC
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'Geothrogrrc' picks Houston vs Jacksonville to go Under (42.5)

Geothrogrrc is #9 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.

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