Houston Texans Picks
3rd in AFC South
(1 - 4 - 0)
Next Game
HOU @ JAC Picks
NFL PicksTuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating. He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year. With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns in 2026, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.
Marks to handle 15 or more carries is in play to 56% because he's set for a lead role in the Houston backfield after rushing for a respectable 4.1 yards per carry for 62 total in Week 5, and David Montgomery (groin) sidelined. I’m also expecting the Houston offense to look to attack on the ground more this week to help mitigate a Jacksonville pass rush ranking seventh in pressure percentage. Houston has the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback when pressured, and QB C.J. Stroud has a 46.2 completion percentage for just 4.8 yards per attempt under pressure, after all.
Tuten recording nine or more receiving yards is in play to -130. The Texans have surrendered 15 receptions for 51 yards to running backs the past two weeks, and Tuten has hit double-digit receiving yards in four of five games with an elite 11.8 yards after contact per reception and 90% catch rate.
Trevor Lawrence just lost his blindside protector and faces a nasty Texans pass rush. The Jaguars QB is going to have to use his legs to stay alive and keep the chains moving. He’s rushed for 25 yards in two of his last three games and his rushing yards forecasts range from 12 to 23 yards with my number at 17.8 rushing yards. He had 35 yards rushing in a matchup with Houston last season.
The Houston defense is traveling to London and ranks in the bottom half in EPA/dropback. I hate how the Jaguars are calling plays near the goal line with their running backs, so I'll happily back Brenton Strange at 4.8x with a fair price of 3.5x. He's seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks and is coming off two of the biggest games of his career. He failed to score in either outing but is getting red-zone snaps and is the No. 2 option in the passing game right now. Nobody seeing 6+ targets should be priced at 4.8x or longer for a TD.
I recommend the Jacksonville moneyline to -160 because this is a bad spot for Houston in this AFC South clash. Not only are the Texans heading to London for the waiting Jaguars, this is also the third road game in three weeks for Houston. Additionally, the Texans have faced the basement-dwelling Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans stop units over their past two games. The uptick in class is going to be too much for the Houston offense, with Jacksonville ranking third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and allowing the second-fewest points per drive
The Texans turn their attention to Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence, who won’t have LT Anton Harrison (knee) watching his blindside for the rest of the season. Lawrence was already feeling pressure at the 13th highest rate, taking 10 sacks and suffering 19 QB hits. Houston currently sits second in the league with 18 sacks and 11th in pressure rate per dropback, despite blitzing at the fourth lowest rate. That pressure from just the front four, including sack leader Will Anderson Jr., is Lawrence’s kryptonite. After five games, the Jags QB rates 10th among all passers at PFF when kept clean (91.2) but watches that measurement melt to 37th when under pressure (36.4). Lawrence’s completion rate sinks below 42% and he’s thrown two of his three interceptions while under duress.
The Texans and Jaguars rank ninth and third in defensive DVOA and fifth and seventh in defensive success rate. Houston is also travelling to London for its third road game in four weeks, and I’m expecting the offense to have trouble with the uptick in class after facing the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans the past two weeks. Similarly, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will have his hands full against a Houston pass rush with 10 sacks across their past three games.
Jacksonville is third in defensive DVOA, allowing the fifth-lowest EPA per play, and allowing the second-fewest points per drive, and Houston has faced weak defenses in consecutive weeks and will be heading to London to play its third road game in four weeks. Lawrence has also thrown for a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt and 67.1 completion percentage while ranking adjusted EPA per play. Finally, Marks is set for a lead role with David Montgomery (groin) sidelined, and Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans praised the second-year back’s play and confirmed Marks would be heavily involved again this week.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusHOU @ JAC · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
42.5 Total
45.65 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.2
DIFFERENCE
17.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u256.5 Passing Yards
237.85 UNDER
PROJECTION
-18.7
DIFFERENCE
24.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. Lawrence
(QB)
o225.5 Passing Yards
232.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.4
DIFFERENCE
22.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
62.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.5
DIFFERENCE
26.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o9.5 Rushing Yards
17.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.5
DIFFERENCE
26.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
T. Lawrence
(QB)
o12.5 Rushing Yards
20.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
25.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Tuten
(RB)
o60.5 Rushing Yards
68.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.7
DIFFERENCE
13.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Tuten
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
15.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
W. Marks
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
20.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
25.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Schultz
(TE)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
35.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
23.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Strange
(TE)
o36.5 Receiving Yards
42.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
22.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
P. Washington
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
66.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
21.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
N. Collins
(WR)
u5.5 Receptions Made
5.03 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
18.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
P. Washington
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
12.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
W. Marks
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. Schultz
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Tuten
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions Made
2.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
2.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Strange
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
4.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
1.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
T. Lawrence
(QB)
o3.5 Rushing Attempts
4.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
16.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o2.5 Rushing Attempts
3.25 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
13.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
B. Tuten
(RB)
u16.5 Rushing Attempts
16.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
12.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
W. Marks
(RB)
o14.5 Rushing Attempts
15.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
8.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
T. Lawrence
(QB)
o29.5 Passing Attempts
33.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
13.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
C. Stroud
(QB)
o35.5 Passing Attempts
35.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
3.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
C. Stroud
(QB)
u22.5 Passing Completions
21.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.3
DIFFERENCE
10.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
T. Lawrence
(QB)
o19.5 Passing Completions
19.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
P. Washington
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
N. Collins
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.47 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
18.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Strange
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.26 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
13.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Tuten
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.48 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
10.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
W. Marks
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.49 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.11 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
8.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Lawrence
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.17 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-9.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Schultz
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-14.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
T. Lawrence
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
16.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
C. Stroud
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.84 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
11.45%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low