Baltimore Ravens

Picks

The Ravens struggled to defend the run at the start of the year but have shored up that area over the last few weeks. They held the Rams to 74 yards on 23 rush attempts before going on their bye in Week 7. Last week they limited the Bears to 92 yards on 23 carries with 22 of those yards coming on a scramble by Caleb Williams against prevent defense. More than 68% of Achane's rush attempts come on inside zone and outside zone run plays and Baltimore allows just 3.5 yards per carry on those plays. And with the Ravens installed as 7.5-point favorites, the Phins could be forced to abandon the run if they fall behind early. 

Jackson has rushed for 35 or more yards in three of four games this season and 15 of 19 in 2024, including the playoffs. And, if the two-time MVP winner is healthy enough to start, he’s going to be involved in the ground game, and opponents have been running all over the Dolphins. Additionally, Jackson hasn’t had a rushing-yards total this low the past two years. We’re obviously landing this number because he’s missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, and while there’s always the risk of aggravation or a change in game plan, I’m not anticipating it.

Jackson says that he is 100% heading into Thursday Night but I'm skeptical. You don't go from missing an essentially must-win game on Sunday to miraculously being fully healed in four days. While I don't think he'll be significantly hindered by his hamstring, I do think the lingering affects will make him less able (and willing) to run the ball. And the Miami Dolphins feeble pass rush certainly isn't going to force him out of the pocket. Jackson has finished with fewer than 6.5 rush attempts in three of four games this year and I think we'll see him stay in the pocket on TNF.

The Dolphins are dead-last in the league in defensive dropback EPA and success rate. Zay Flowers is far and away the best receiver on the Ravens and he'll look to take advantage of that piss-poor Miami secondary. Flowers saw a whopping 19 targets over the last two weeks but wasn't able to do much with Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball. The Pro Bowl wideout racked up more than 70 receiving yards in four of his first five games this year and he should thrive with Lamar Jackson back under center. 

Jackson’s usage as a rushing threat on Thursday could be tempered by his recent hamstring injury but while I may stay away from his rushing yards total, I do like the Over 14.5 yards for his longest run attempt. Miami is an aggressive defense that blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which means added pressure pushing Jackson out of the pocket but also less linebackers at the second level when Lamar takes off. The Dolphins also run more man-to-man schemes, which has defenders locked in on coverage and turning their backs to the QB. It takes a touch longer for defensive backs to recognize the run and make the tackle. Jackson has gone for longs of 15-plus in 17 of his last 23 games going back to last season and we’ve seen the Fins give up big rushing gains to fellow dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen and Justin Fields this season.

Going back to September 30th of last season, the Over has hit in nine straight Dolphins' home games. Miami's offense has done plenty of heavy lifting in these games, as they’ve scored 27 or more points in eight straight. With Lamar Jackson expected back, it should be pointed out that the four games he’s played in this season all resulted in at least 57 combined points or more with the four games having an average combined score of 66 points.