Baltimore Ravens Picks
2nd in AFC North
(3 - 1 - 0)
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BAL @ ATL Picks
NFL PicksBackup QBs usually lean on TEs for quick hits and checkdowns and that’s been the case for Huntley during his two stints in Charm City. He threw to his tight ends 16 times over two starts last year and looked to TEs a lot whenever called into action for the Ravens in 2021 and 2022. Andrews boast the fifth highest target share (23.5%) across the position has posted 24, 27, 49 and 49 yards in the opening four games of 2026. His SNF forecasts all sit north of 30 receiving yards with some models pointing to 40 yards from the veteran.
In his two games back from injury, Penix only has eyes for WR Drake London. He’s been targeted 16 times the past two outings. However, London is yet to see a red zone throw his way and is still hunting for his first touchdown of the season. Baltimore has been burned by some big-name WRs, allowing guys like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Chris Olave to ball out. London’s Week 5 projections are positive, including his touchdown forecasts. Most of those models call for a 50%+ chance of Atlanta’s WR1 finally finding the end zone.
I’m not even going to overthink this one. Give me Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at 57%, as I price him closer to 61%, and we almost never see this kind of edge in his touchdown market. I’m old enough to remember the Ravens walking into Lambeau Field last season needing a win with Tyler Huntley under center, and Henry responded by rushing for four touchdowns. In any red-zone scenario with a backup quarterback under center, Henry is going to see a heavy workload, making him the obvious focal point to get Baltimore into the end zone.
I’ll bite—give me the Ravens as a 3.5-point underdog with Tyler Huntley under center, as I price Baltimore closer to a 2.5-point underdog. It’s only one point, but it’s through a key number, which has me hitting the button on the Ravens. Huntley isn’t a rookie or a quarterback with little to no experience. He’s a backup with plenty of experience in Baltimore and is well-insulated by weapons such as Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers. The Falcons are coming off back-to-back impressive performances, so in the most NFL way possible, they’ll probably lose this game. I’ll gladly take the +3.5.
I'm taking the longer of the Robinson brothers in Week 5, as I have a fair price on Brian Robinson at 3.1x, not the 3.4x his TD opened at. The pair had five scores on MNF, and since Michael Penix returned, this offense ranks first in the NFL in EPA/play. There is simply too much to stop with Drake London and Bijan Robinson, and Brian is happy to clean up the mess around the goal line. The backup back had five red-zone opportunities last week and turned them into three scores, while Bijan had seven opportunities. Brian has double-digit carries in three straight weeks and shouldn't be priced longer than 3.0x in an offense that can consistently move the ball. Baltimore ranks in the bottom third of the league in defensive EPA/rush and could be giving the Falcons good field position all day if Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and the offensive line continue to struggle with injuries ahead of the matchup.
While there’s no denying Jackson’s worth, the Ravens are used to “breaking the glass” in case of emergency. Baltimore is 6-11 SU without Jackson at QB but 8-9 ATS in those outings. The Falcons not only take the field on a short week, but their public perception is pumping with positivity after two prime time wins. I feel that’s taxing this team too much on SNF. The Ravens’ defense is the highest rated stop unit Atlanta has faced this season and Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter is focusing on improving the run stop. This feels like a rock fight with both teams selling out to stop the run. I’ll buy back the big move on the Ravens, hanging on to that half-point hook for dear life.
Lamar Jackson's status is up in the air but the latest reports don't sound positive for the Ravens QB. This Sunday Night Football contest will turn into a game of “keep-away” as both offenses are anchored in the run, sitting No. 1 and No. 3 in rushing play percentage. The Falcons go deep into the play clock before snapping the ball – at least with Penix Jr. under center. Atlanta has posted an average of 32:53 in time of possession the past two games. Offensively, Baltimore is methodical even with Jackson at the wheel. Should he sit out Week 5, this attack will run considerably slower with the backup QB and lean even more into RB Derrick Henry. Short gains with the clock ticking and two sound defenses clear a path to the Under on Sunday night.
Falcons fever is spreading after two wins on the nation stage. But beating up on a busted Packers team on a short week and bullying the Saints shoddy defense isn’t winning me over. Baltimore has been without Lamar before and this defense is a prideful group that shows up on SNF. London hasn’t scored a touchdown in 2026 but with Baltimore stacking the box to slow down Robinson & Robinson, London could slip out for a score. His TD probabilities sit as high as 52% with some models. Andrews is always busy when Huntley takes over under center. The veteran TE sees his targets tick up and his projections all call for 30+ receiving yards versus Atlanta.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusBAL @ ATL · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
ATL
-3.5 spread
-5.91
PROJECTION
-2.4
DIFFERENCE
17.37%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
44.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
8.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
T. Huntley
(QB)
o173.5 Passing Yards
201.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+28.5
DIFFERENCE
25.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
o218.5 Passing Yards
222.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
18.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
o0.5 Rushing Yards
4.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.5
DIFFERENCE
26.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Robinson
(RB)
u88.5 Rushing Yards
72.03 UNDER
PROJECTION
-16.5
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
K. Pitts Sr.
(TE)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
31.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
24.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Henry
(RB)
o5.5 Receiving Yards
9.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
24.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o67.5 Receiving Yards
76.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
24.08%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
M. Andrews
(TE)
o28.5 Receiving Yards
35.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
23.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
B. Robinson
(RB)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
30.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
21.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. London
(WR)
o79.5 Receiving Yards
85.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.6
DIFFERENCE
18.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
Z. Flowers
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
5.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
10.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
D. London
(WR)
u6.5 Receptions Made
5.89 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.27%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
K. Pitts Sr.
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
5.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
M. Andrews
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.90 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.94%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
B. Robinson
(RB)
o3.5 Receptions Made
3.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
D. Henry
(RB)
u19.5 Rushing Attempts
17.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.0
DIFFERENCE
21.3%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
T. Huntley
(QB)
o26.5 Passing Attempts
28.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.3
DIFFERENCE
18.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
o29.5 Passing Attempts
29.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
T. Huntley
(QB)
o17.5 Passing Completions
19.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
16.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
o18.5 Passing Completions
19.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
T. Huntley
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.25 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
22.03%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
Z. Flowers
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.46 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. London
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Robinson
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.79 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Andrews
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.28 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
K. Pitts Sr.
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.19 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-7.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
D. Henry
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.51 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-12.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.07 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
0%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
M. Penix Jr.
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.40 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
12.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
T. Huntley
(QB)
o0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.67 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.12%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low