Bengals @ Dolphins Picks & Props

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate. Chase Brown has accumulated a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 17.9. With an exceptional rate of 0.13 per game through the air (85th percentile), Chase Brown stands as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among RBs this year.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate. The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 36.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 10th-most out of all QBs. Joe Burrow has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in football among QBs (3rd percentile). Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4-point underdogs. Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.0% this year, which ranks him in the 88th percentile among wideouts. After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has posted big gains this year, now averaging 82.0 per game. Jaylen Waddle's 63.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 43.8. With a terrific ratio of 0.38 per game through the air (87th percentile), Jaylen Waddle rates among the top receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4-point underdogs. De'Von Achane has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.2% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among RBs. As it relates to air yards, De'Von Achane ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a remarkable 5.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards). De'Von Achane's 34.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 22.4. De'Von Achane grades out in the 97th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a remarkable 0.25 per game.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4-point underdogs. Darren Waller has accumulated a massive 45.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Darren Waller slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 37.6 mark this year. Darren Waller ranks in the 100th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.86 per game. This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals defense has yielded a staggering 1.07 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends: the highest rate in football.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 65.0% red zone pass rate. With an impressive 27.5% Red Zone Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase rates as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL. After accruing 90.0 air yards per game last season, Ja'Marr Chase has posted big gains this season, currently boasting 108.0 per game. Ja'Marr Chase's 76.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 64.7.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Dolphins, who are -4-point underdogs. This year, the weak Bengals defense has given up a massive 2.14 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.