Aaron Rodgers ranks dead-last in the NFL in average intended air yards (5.9) and has been heavily reliant on short throws to backs and tight ends. Kenneth Gainwell is Pittsburgh's most reliable receiver out of the backfield and has been taking the majority of the RB snaps on passing downs. He has logged 25+ receiving yards in four of his last five games which includes a seven-catch, 81-yard performance against the Bengals. The Ravens are 26th in DVOA against running backs while allowing 39.1 receiving yards per game to the position — the sixth-highest total in the league.
Lamar Jackson has been dealing with multiple lower-body injuries that have robbed him of his usual mobility and elusiveness. The Bengals sacked Jackson three times last week and the Browns had five sacks against him in Week 11. He was sacked just once by the Jets in Week 12, but was tackled multiple times just past the line of scrimmage. He'll have a hard time escaping a strong Pittsburgh pass rush led by T.J. Watt. The All-Pro outside linebacker has picked up at least half a sack in seven of his last 10 contests. He also has a history of wrecking the Ravens, racking up 17 sacks in 16 career games against Baltimore.
Zay Flowers is coming off an ugly game where he reeled in just two of seven targets for six yards. That said, he's in a good spot to bounce back against the Steelers on Sunday. Prior to last week, Flowers had racked up more than 55.5 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games. He's Baltimore's best receiver by a wide margin and Pittsburgh's defense has been a passing funnel. The Steelers are 25th in the NFL in opponent passing rate (59.6%) while allowing a league-high 171.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
Jackson hasn’t had a rushing yards total this low once since the beginning of the 2024 season, and while his recent numbers on the ground don’t jump off the page, he’s still topped this number in two of his past four games and has averaged 6.2 carries per since returning from injury in Week 9. Jackson is nursing an ankle injury, but with Pittsburgh blitzing at the sixth-highest rate in the league, I’m expecting multiple scrambles for chunk gains. Plus, coming off the mini bye with a Thursday game in Week 13 is a bonus.
Pittsburgh leaned on Jaylen Warren more last week than they had in recent games, giving him the majority of the red-zone work. He had the team’s only carry inside the 5 — which he converted for a TD — and added two more red-zone targets. Even though the Steelers alternated drives with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren consistently got the first crack and the valuable touches near the goal line. I saw it firsthand while chasing a Gainwell TD at +220 and watching Warren outcarry him 2:1. The quarterback situation is shaky, but against a Baltimore team that’s lost its defensive edge and just gave up plenty of production to Bengals running backs, Warren should be asked to handle a heavy workload and finish drives. Warren was -155 just four games ago.
Baltimore had rolled off five consecutive wins while ranking eighth in offensive DVOA and 12th in defensive DVOA before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, so I like the Ravens to respond in a pivotal AFC North game against the visiting Steelers. Pittsburgh has dropped five of seven, and quarterback Aaron Rogders hasn’t connected for multiple touchdown passes since Week 8. The Ravens roll at M&T Bank Stadium and cover the number in Week 14.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. While Zay Flowers has accounted for 14.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Baltimore's offense near the goal line this week at 21.2%.. Zay Flowers places in the 89th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a massive 63.4 figure this year.. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 72.1%.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the league against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.7. . The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.7. . The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.
The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.. At a massive 30.21 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year.. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-fewest out of all QBs.. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.. With an excellent 8.7 adjusted yards per target (76th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth places as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. This week, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 82nd percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.. With an exceptional 9.3% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs.. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.. With a top-tier 92.9% Route Participation Rate (91st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.. The projections expect DK Metcalf to notch 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs this year, accruing a whopping 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.7%) to running backs this year (88.7%).
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to garner 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.. With an extraordinary 17.3% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league.. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (66.0) to TEs this year.. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.9%) to TEs this year (80.9%).
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.. Zay Flowers has run a route on 94.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.. In this contest, Zay Flowers is expected by the projections to slot into the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets.. Zay Flowers has been one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 56.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.. Zay Flowers's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.7% to 72.1%.
Pittsburgh Trends
Baltimore Trends